Style_Dota
Bloo Wannabe
"We can see from the above that, if one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a headafter having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1⁄2. This is an application of Bayes' theorem."
I was stating the total probability, not the probability for each instance, which I already stated is constant. Yes, the odds of hitting the third Focus Blast after hitting two is still 70%, but the odds of hitting three Focus Blasts in a row is still 34.3%. This is the definition of total probability.
I know how this works, I do tutor this after all.
Edit: I do realize that each individual Focus Blast is treated as an independent event, thus making each probability a 70% chance, I was simply explaining what conflict's logic was.
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