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Election 2008, United States

Who would you vote for if the presidential race is held now?

  • Barack Obama

    Votes: 415 72.4%

  • John McCain

    Votes: 130 22.7%

  • Other (Please specify)

    Votes: 28 4.9%
  • Total voters
    573
Okay, so, where are we now?

Obama has actually been doing well lately. Judging by the RealClearPolitics average, the negative ads seem to have actually hurt McCain, while doing little to Obama. On the other hand, it seems that the Russo-Georgian War (or whatever they decide to call it) has been trouble for Obama, who has slipped in the most recent polls. It's also probable that Obama was hurt by his vacation in Hawaii, when he was out of the news. With the conventions coming up and likely huge bounces from those and the VP picks, the next few days of polling may be highly erratic. On the other hand, the race hasn't really changed much in the last couple months, so it may just end up being highly stable at a slight lead for Obama.

As far as state-by-state polling, McCain has strengthened considerably in Colorado - a big problem, seeing as Colorado was Obama's "firewall" - a state that he could win the election through if he lost Ohio (a reasonable possibility). On the other hand, Obama has gotten control of Michigan, making it harder for McCain to break the Kerry coalition - which, with Iowa and New Mexico likely in Obama's camp, gives him 264 electoral votes - which means Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, or a combination of 2 3-pointers (like Montana, North Dakota, or Alaska) would give Obama the election.
 
Obama's lead in Michigan will disappear real fast, because I think its pretty obvious Romney is going to be the pick for VP

I really see the conflict in Georgia/South Ossetia as a turning point in the election - the outrage over Russia attacking a "friendly pro-western liberal democracy" (even though for the most part the only part of that sentence that applies is "pro-western") will make people think that "hey its the economy but foreign policy is important too stupid!". For the most part, people are more in line emotionally with McCain's consistently harsh stance towards Russia than Obama's more nuanced one.

Obama's VP will almost certainly be Biden. But I'm not sure if that will erase his clear weakness on foreign policy.

EDIT: Just read that McCain is up by 5 points according to Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1927197620080820

What is absolutely shocking is that McCain is now viewed as stronger on the economy.

That is nothing short of amazing. Not to mention that this doesn't take into account the Saddleback debate (where McCain clearly won, and Obama I felt looked weak, especially with the "above my payscale" comment)

McCain I feel has locked down his base at this point, taking away one of his biggest concerns since the nominations were clinched.

At the same time, Obama's "hope and change" theme is starting to wear thin; whether its true or not, the "celebrity" label is starting to stick, and people are starting to question whether he's actually the right guy for the job, or just a novelty.
 
Ancien Régime said:
At the same time, Obama's "hope and change" theme is starting to wear thin; whether its true or not, the "celebrity" label is starting to stick, and people are starting to question whether he's actually the right guy for the job, or just a novelty.
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This is likely thanks to the John McCain ads, which centralize Obama as a celebrity and not fit for the job. In my state of WV, I see those ads about 3 time a night, and I strongly believe they are having an effect on people.
 
Strangely, if you look at the polls, McCain's numbers actually DROPPED after the negative ads started, while Obama's stayed level. Obama's drop started about with the Russia-Georgia war - which leads me to believe that, like McCain's one adviser predicted, foreign policy crises are good for McCain.
 
Misty said:
Strangely, if you look at the polls, McCain's numbers actually DROPPED after the negative ads started, while Obama's stayed level. Obama's drop started about with the Russia-Georgia war - which leads me to believe that, like McCain's one adviser predicted, foreign policy crises are good for McCain.
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John McCain has actually responded about this Russia-Georgia situation. I don't remember what he said, but I wonder why Obama has kept his mouth shut about this...............
 
No, Ralph Nader might get some of the popular vote, but he almost certainly won't get any electoral votes. It would be nearly impossible for him to achieve a plurality of the popular vote in any state, or in the case of Maine and Nebraska, congressional district.
 
Not to mention that this doesn't take into account the Saddleback debate (where McCain clearly won, and Obama I felt looked weak, especially with the "above my payscale" comment)

He looked weak to stupid voters. Anyone with an ounce of sense could see he was stuck trying to answer a complicated philosophical question in far too short a time. He's clearly not very good with (or very cynical about) science, he proved that when he lied about the link between autism and vaccines. I'm ashamed of McCain, personally, for his stupid, immediate 'at conception' rot. Does he has the brainworm? Obviously.

On the up side, more and more cool Americans are moving to NZ to get away from the farce that is their country. I have some really awesome, clear-headed American workmates now! :D
 
I'm going to be honest, the "above my pay grade" thing came off as a pretty bad joke that looked like a dodge to an important question.
 
tea_and_blues said:
link between autism and vaccines.
Click to expand...

its prettty much been established that there is no real link between vaccines and autism; it's just hype propagated by far left greens and new age proponents

I'm ashamed of McCain, personally, for his stupid, immediate 'at conception' rot. Does he has the brainworm? Obviously.
Click to expand...

just because you don't agree doesn't make it stupid

maybe he sincerely believes that on a philosophical level life begins at conception
 
tea_and_blues said:
I suppose, but heck, it's 100% more intelligent and honest than "At conception."
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How is that dishonest? It's just what he thinks. As far as intelligence goes, it's only an opinion. I disagree with him, and we both have our reasons for thinking what we do. Simple as that.
 
Ancien Regime said:
its prettty much been established that there is no real link between vaccines and autism; it's just hype propagated by far left greens and new age proponents
Click to expand...
There was a mercury fluid in one vaccine that is believed to have caused autism in some cases. Not sure about any other things that you're referring to.
 
Ancien Regime, sorry for being vague, that was my point - vaccines are not connected with autism. It is not only 'new age' and 'green' types who have pushed the anti-vaccination agenda, indeed the US evangelical conservatives, a much more powerful lobby than the greens, fuel it plenty.

And I'm sorry Misty, I just find it pretty hard to believe that McCain is actually that out of touch with reality. Opinions ought to have some basis in evidence, at least outside the US where they still have science.
 
I've absolutely no idea where you get this idea of vaccines causing autism being put forward by 'far left greens' - I kinda hang about with anarchists and marxists and as far as I'm aware none of them have ever believed that it was?
Not like you'd just be trying to make the Left look hypochondriac insane as opposed to the far more rational Right, of course..

Also, not to get back into the abortion shit, but if you truly believe life begins at conception then you can argue that back to the only time you're not aborting is when you're fucking with the sole intent of procreation. Ahem.
 
tea_and_blues said:
Ancien Regime, sorry for being vague, that was my point - vaccines are not connected with autism. It is not only 'new age' and 'green' types who have pushed the anti-vaccination agenda, indeed the US evangelical conservatives, a much more powerful lobby than the greens, fuel it plenty.
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Thanks for the clarification (as you know i'm autistic and i strongly oppose the idea that you get autism by being poisoned)

To be fair, I didn't really think about the "new age/green" thing in terms of just who is the main propagator of the autism = vaccines thing, but the idea speaks of "everything in our environment poisons us" or "eat organic always" etc etc, so I just ascribed it to that.
 
The problem with the green movement is that it seems to be a bit senseless. The whole point, really, should be sustainable development - not protecting wastelands.
 
Wastelands is kind of a misnomer in most cases.

Like any movement, greens have a whole lot of people involved, and a lot have differing opinions, but a lot of so called wastelands are pretty valuable.

Have a nice day.
 
VP madness is going on out there. There have been reports for Obamas VP fluctuating between Biden and Bayh.

If Obama doesn't want to get slaughterd by default, he'll go with Bayh. Biden has the same problem as Barack Obama in that they both say either stunningly stupid or unfathomably ignorant statements when speaking extemporaneously.

I can't fathom whether McCain's will be Romney, Pawlenty, or anyone else. At this point I'm basically voting for McCain because my alternative is the stupidest, most arrogant man to ever run for president.

I've no time for Socialists/Marxists. It's no wonder they can let mass murder and re-education camps slip by in the name of "the greater good" considering they think human life doesn't begin until they say it does. It's at conception. Look it up in a 3rd grade science textbook. Socialists live in a fairy land where good intentions trump actual harm. As long as they feel good about what they idealized about at the time, a sea of skulls standing beneath them is irrelevant. Logical thought is above their pay grade, as it were.

For my examples, I point to the greatest slaughters of the past 100 years: Naziism (National Socialist Workers Party), Communism, Stalinism, and Leninism. They are all simply variations on socialism, as according to Communist theory you must go through socialism before you achieve communism. Nazism just chucked in some jingoism for good measure, the result of which was less dead Germans and more dead everyone else. Stalin and Mao just seemed to enjoy slaughtering their own people by the looks of it.

So why is this important? All of Barack's mentors from Saul Alinsky to Rev. Wright to William Ayers are Marxists. Obama is the result of Marxist indoctination, and he is so arrogant in his belief he will heal the nation of all wounds with his oratory and a boatload of massive government programs that he doesn't realize he looks like a fool.

Quick Q: Barack Obama becomes president and Putin invades Poland.

Will Barack:

a) Take a vacation while sending a harshly worded response
b) Try and get Russia to stop with a UN security council vote, despite the fact he knows Russia has veto power.
c) Hide under his desk while blaming the policies of George W. Bush and American FP at large as Russia marches on to World War III.

Fact is, Putin will steamroll that slug. He is a weak, inexperienced, and has a paper-thin willpower. He will bend over backwards to appease any demand.

I read a quote from James Madison recently:

"It is a principle incorporated into the settled policy of America,
that as peace is better than war, war is better than tribute."

-- President James Madison (Letter to the Dey/Bey of Algiers, August 1816)

I honestly believe at this point the Democratic Party believes that tribute is superior to war, and that Marxists in particular believe that tribute is greater than peace. After all, the first goal of a Marxist is to have everyone pay tribute to the state. (Eventually it will dissolve, they tell us. If only we grant it absolute authority first.)

This is why Marxists are anti-American. Maxism is the antithesis to Americanism. Americans value success, not equality of outcome. Americans don't want government to micro-manage their lives and choices, Marxists do. About the only good thing about a Barack presidency is that he may finally be the Wake-Up Pill. Too bad by then Russia will probably be back to USSR size by then.

There are lots of groups I don't agree with. Marxists/Socialists are among the few I am willing to call inherently evil. This is because wherever a Marxist comes to power, a trail of blood inevitably follows. So too will it come to pass if we elect Barack Obama.
 
"but we have never achieved a true communist society and all of those other regimes were just people misusing socialist principles"

imo the concept of "anarcho-socialism" is an oxymoron; people will never disavow the concept of private property or not trade the products of their labor with other people without a massive police state to enforce this

I don't want to vote for McCain; even though he's not a bad guy at all, I don't like how he suddenly started supporting the Patriot Act after being initally against it, and he's been lukewarm (though worlds better than Obama) on economic issues (at least compared with Ron Paul, who has more economic knowledge in his right pinkie than the entire democratic party combined haha).

But I, as someone who fucking loathes Bush for ruining conservatism, will vote for him over Obama. Seriously. Bush fucked up the country, Obama will just continue it.

They're the same kind of candidate; compare "hope and change" and "compassionate conservatism", both big-government centralizers, both big on social welfare projects, both had a lot of nice, pretty words about "unity", and "hope" and "change".
 
Once again, Deck Knight, Obama is not remotely Marxist and you clearly don't know the differences between Stalinism/Maoism and Marxism. Go back to school.
 
Anyway not going to reveal whether I agree or disagree with your sentiments, Deck Knight, but can you tell me why you are denouncing Obama for
alternative is the stupidest, most arrogant man to ever run for president
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when McCain has explicitly stated that he doesn't know much about the economy ?_?

I don't know about you, but I think you have to be pretty stupid to not know anything about the economy...and then pretty damn arrogant to expect people to vote for you for PRESIDENT when you OPENLY admit this ~_~

Now I'm not saying that you shouldn't say Obama is stupid or arrogant (trust me...these two choices are NOT ideal for me), but I am saying that you really have to stretch reality if you can somehow justify voting for the GOP this time around by saying Obama is more stupid and more arrogant than McCain.
 
dear deck knight: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi

please read that.
please. Nazis and Marxists kinda hate each other. I should know.

Also, hasn't a trail of death surrounded Bush? I mean, he's killed a hell of a lot more people than Obama, and I don't see you slagging him off..
 
Biden seems a lot like Jim Webb, who IMO was the best choice. So it works for me.

Russia invading Poland is way different from Russia invading Georgia, seeing as Poland is a member of NATO. There's also the question of how exactly Russia invades Poland - it lacks a border, except via the exclave of Kaliningrad, which the Baltic states would notice a military buildup in.
 
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