Okay, so, where are we now?
Obama has actually been doing well lately. Judging by the RealClearPolitics average, the negative ads seem to have actually hurt McCain, while doing little to Obama. On the other hand, it seems that the Russo-Georgian War (or whatever they decide to call it) has been trouble for Obama, who has slipped in the most recent polls. It's also probable that Obama was hurt by his vacation in Hawaii, when he was out of the news. With the conventions coming up and likely huge bounces from those and the VP picks, the next few days of polling may be highly erratic. On the other hand, the race hasn't really changed much in the last couple months, so it may just end up being highly stable at a slight lead for Obama.
As far as state-by-state polling, McCain has strengthened considerably in Colorado - a big problem, seeing as Colorado was Obama's "firewall" - a state that he could win the election through if he lost Ohio (a reasonable possibility). On the other hand, Obama has gotten control of Michigan, making it harder for McCain to break the Kerry coalition - which, with Iowa and New Mexico likely in Obama's camp, gives him 264 electoral votes - which means Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, or a combination of 2 3-pointers (like Montana, North Dakota, or Alaska) would give Obama the election.
Obama has actually been doing well lately. Judging by the RealClearPolitics average, the negative ads seem to have actually hurt McCain, while doing little to Obama. On the other hand, it seems that the Russo-Georgian War (or whatever they decide to call it) has been trouble for Obama, who has slipped in the most recent polls. It's also probable that Obama was hurt by his vacation in Hawaii, when he was out of the news. With the conventions coming up and likely huge bounces from those and the VP picks, the next few days of polling may be highly erratic. On the other hand, the race hasn't really changed much in the last couple months, so it may just end up being highly stable at a slight lead for Obama.
As far as state-by-state polling, McCain has strengthened considerably in Colorado - a big problem, seeing as Colorado was Obama's "firewall" - a state that he could win the election through if he lost Ohio (a reasonable possibility). On the other hand, Obama has gotten control of Michigan, making it harder for McCain to break the Kerry coalition - which, with Iowa and New Mexico likely in Obama's camp, gives him 264 electoral votes - which means Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, or a combination of 2 3-pointers (like Montana, North Dakota, or Alaska) would give Obama the election.



















