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Swine flu hitting everywhere
- Thread starter Death Phenomeno
- Start date
Hey guys, remember avian flu? How about West Nile? What about SARS? How about the NoroVirus?
Honestly people, I'd give it 99% odds of just petering out. I'll panic when it's time to panic and so should you; this is more than probably just another 'fad' disease that the media overhypes and everyone goes mental about, til they realize that such, devastating threats like SARS have a modest 90+% survival rate when untreated or a ridiculously low virulence, when it's even the right damn strain (which is a rare one) of west nile.
Calm yourselves.
Honestly people, I'd give it 99% odds of just petering out. I'll panic when it's time to panic and so should you; this is more than probably just another 'fad' disease that the media overhypes and everyone goes mental about, til they realize that such, devastating threats like SARS have a modest 90+% survival rate when untreated or a ridiculously low virulence, when it's even the right damn strain (which is a rare one) of west nile.
Calm yourselves.
Avian Flu was mostly confined to a few countries in Asia, and even then had a few cases and had trouble spreading human-to-human.
This one is having absolutely no problems spreading human-to-human, and has already hit all corners of the globe. That includes the US and Canada.
Even if it had a 90%+ survival rate when untreated, that would still mean a very large number of deaths in densely packed countries with poor healthcare.
This one is having absolutely no problems spreading human-to-human, and has already hit all corners of the globe. That includes the US and Canada.
Even if it had a 90%+ survival rate when untreated, that would still mean a very large number of deaths in densely packed countries with poor healthcare.
Yeah, I know Surgo, that's why I didn't specifically call out avian flu like I did with west nile and SARS- Sars I picked on because it was friggin everywhere it seemed and was reasonably contageous, and west nile is prevalent where ever you have Aedes aegypticus mosquitoes in conjunction with any member of the corvidae, which is virtually everywhere anyways (at least most major population centers).
I really more lumped it in to show how easily the media can hype shit that is, really, not as harmful as it is made out to be. I know what you're thinking as of that last sentence, cause I kind of did just call this latest flu harmless in a roundabout way, so here is a pre-emptive reply to it:
Edit: I just did some more poking around. The last two generations have been hit by hypervirulent influenza; infact, pretty much every generation gets hit. The Spanish flu alone killed more than ww1 did apparently; but the following generation was much more solid biologically to take on influenza. All we do now by vaccinating is lowering the virulence of the strain in question, really, and that means that we'll have to step that much faster next time. Realistically though, according to epidemiologists, we're 'due' for another hit by a flu; if this is it, then this is it. It happens on average once per generation and it's just something you gotta deal with when having such a gloabalized and hyperpopulated world. I honestly will sound like a jerk for saying this, but it really is 'just another hypervirulent flu'.
Also, Surgo, upon thinking about avian flu a bit more, it really only takes on mutation to change it from being basically non virulent between people to full blown outbreak. Hell, Spanish flu was an avian variety of flu and that thing was a shit kicker, so it's not a far off thing to really have it turn into a crisis. Still, it was overblown like the rest of them (obviously not counting spanish flu though).
I really more lumped it in to show how easily the media can hype shit that is, really, not as harmful as it is made out to be. I know what you're thinking as of that last sentence, cause I kind of did just call this latest flu harmless in a roundabout way, so here is a pre-emptive reply to it:
morm said:
Edit: I just did some more poking around. The last two generations have been hit by hypervirulent influenza; infact, pretty much every generation gets hit. The Spanish flu alone killed more than ww1 did apparently; but the following generation was much more solid biologically to take on influenza. All we do now by vaccinating is lowering the virulence of the strain in question, really, and that means that we'll have to step that much faster next time. Realistically though, according to epidemiologists, we're 'due' for another hit by a flu; if this is it, then this is it. It happens on average once per generation and it's just something you gotta deal with when having such a gloabalized and hyperpopulated world. I honestly will sound like a jerk for saying this, but it really is 'just another hypervirulent flu'.
Also, Surgo, upon thinking about avian flu a bit more, it really only takes on mutation to change it from being basically non virulent between people to full blown outbreak. Hell, Spanish flu was an avian variety of flu and that thing was a shit kicker, so it's not a far off thing to really have it turn into a crisis. Still, it was overblown like the rest of them (obviously not counting spanish flu though).
Or it could be nature taking care of overpopulation.
The problem in Mexico is really scary, but very unclear,because statistics and information is not clear.
So far there are 150 possible deaths caused by this all over the country, 20 confirmed as the swine flu. There are about 1500+ cases but here is what i think is fishy, many of them were not really the swine flu!
I live in Mexico city, it's the very first time something like this happens (everyone hiding in their home, everything is closed out there... no kissing, extreme care about hygiene ), it's certainly not as bad like the bird flu or sars, but still the way this virus acts is really scary to think it may become the first pandemic of this century.
About the US and WHO aid, well i guess it's not really something they have to do, but they just don't want this to go too overboard. It may affect others, and quarantine (which is not bad) is not the definitive solution.
I doubt it
So far there are 150 possible deaths caused by this all over the country, 20 confirmed as the swine flu. There are about 1500+ cases but here is what i think is fishy, many of them were not really the swine flu!
I live in Mexico city, it's the very first time something like this happens (everyone hiding in their home, everything is closed out there... no kissing, extreme care about hygiene ), it's certainly not as bad like the bird flu or sars, but still the way this virus acts is really scary to think it may become the first pandemic of this century.
About the US and WHO aid, well i guess it's not really something they have to do, but they just don't want this to go too overboard. It may affect others, and quarantine (which is not bad) is not the definitive solution.
I doubt it
Damnit, this is not good at all! At least I'm in Australia. The disease doesn't seem to have reached the Southern Hemisphere yet.
I most certainly agree Thorns!
I directed my last comment on this to rey because he said the US should come help mexico. Not to the republican thing. I don't get why stockpiling antiflu meds in the states does anything to go to mexico so i don't mind it.
Well, considering it's an influenza the only real thing you can do is vaccinate before you get infected. So administering vaccines (once there is one, I guess) to your own population makes a whole lot more sense as a country than helping another country out, at least until you have things well under control in your own backyard.
I'll start worrying when the infected report having an insatiable hunger for living flesh.
Zombie jokes aside, this is probably not going to turn into anything big. If the virus mutates again though, it could be become VERY big.
I don't know if there are any biology majors/specialists in here, but basically, when one animal virus enters a cell, everything but it's genetic material dissolves and then its DNA enters the cell's protein synthesis "equipment", and forces it to synthesize copies of the virus. Then all of the viral "parts" produced by the cell assemble themselves and cause the cell to burst, releasing the new viruses to continue the cycle, destroying cells and causing the body's immune system to respond agressively.
However, if two animal viruses (or virii) enter a cell and do this, their DNA gets combined while they are being resynthesized, and you now have a mutated virus that has the qualities of both of the original viruses. This doesn't really do much to the virus except for one very important thing; since animal viruses mimics their host's cellular membrane to get inside, now the new viruses that emerge from the cell that was infected with two viruses have access to whatever hosts they had access to before AND whatever hosts they gained from combining with the other virus. Thats why this one is considered to be a cross between avian, swine and human flu.
There are also other "random" mutations that occasionally happen to viruses (just like any other organism), but this one is the most dangerous because it could combine again with another from of human flu and perhaps become more virulent or worse.
If you guys already knew this stuff, then never mind, but I find the topic of viral infection very interesting and I thought I could share some of what I know.
Zombie jokes aside, this is probably not going to turn into anything big. If the virus mutates again though, it could be become VERY big.
I don't know if there are any biology majors/specialists in here, but basically, when one animal virus enters a cell, everything but it's genetic material dissolves and then its DNA enters the cell's protein synthesis "equipment", and forces it to synthesize copies of the virus. Then all of the viral "parts" produced by the cell assemble themselves and cause the cell to burst, releasing the new viruses to continue the cycle, destroying cells and causing the body's immune system to respond agressively.
However, if two animal viruses (or virii) enter a cell and do this, their DNA gets combined while they are being resynthesized, and you now have a mutated virus that has the qualities of both of the original viruses. This doesn't really do much to the virus except for one very important thing; since animal viruses mimics their host's cellular membrane to get inside, now the new viruses that emerge from the cell that was infected with two viruses have access to whatever hosts they had access to before AND whatever hosts they gained from combining with the other virus. Thats why this one is considered to be a cross between avian, swine and human flu.
There are also other "random" mutations that occasionally happen to viruses (just like any other organism), but this one is the most dangerous because it could combine again with another from of human flu and perhaps become more virulent or worse.
If you guys already knew this stuff, then never mind, but I find the topic of viral infection very interesting and I thought I could share some of what I know.
Except that West Nile really was an issue that eventually subsided.
@Son of Disaster - I said that as a damn example, is not something they have to do. But when you say you are going to isolate a whole country instead of helping them, then its very gay.
I don't think you really understand, quarantine doesn't mean necessarily mean 'keep them confined and let them the virus die with them', but restricting going in and out of the area with the highest concentration of infection. You can still send in help, I already said this before but you completely ignored it.
If a country has a dangerous virus, which is heavily contagious, then making a system such as confinement for a period greater than the incubation period makes a lot of sense. It doesn't mean that no help would be sent, just that there is little to no chance of escape through air traffic if this was in airports, which is better than allowing anyone to travel because people would be desperate to get away if there was a virus, and those in which it had not yet emerged would be among them. (I'm just showing the possibility, not suggesting it (yet!))
As some one who works for health dept vector division (mosquito control) I can tell you that's not really true. Where I live,we got plenty of mosquitoes last year that tested positive for West Nile. We spray the area within a half mile radius around every positive test site with human biting mosquitoes. Also, we ran a big awareness program (wear bug spray at night, remove breeding sites if possible etc.) as we did have people die a few years back. If it's subsided it's because you don't hear about it not, because it's not there or its not a threat.
We've also had rare cases (human not mosquito meaning it won't spread) of malaria and dengue fever.
And remember, it is also the first time in more than 20 years classes have been suspended (24 to be exact, since the earthquake that happened on 1985), that tells how serious it is getting, however, many private companies are working on a vaccine, they say it should be ready in 6 months, which, technically speaking, is a relatively short time, still its worrying, for now, stay at home as much as possible
(By the way, its nice to know there a Mexican Compatriota here)
Edit: Also, Mrobinson587, I´ve heard this is a whole new Flu, which worries me, since we, as humans, need many years to become resistant to a disease, so, in your professional opinion, how much would it take us to become inmune IF we ever do?
My area had a bit of a scare earlier.
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/nort...-swine-flu-has-hit-north-east-72703-23490494/
It really says something about swine flu's ability to travel that it's made it's way into this tucked away forgotten corner of England (apparently!). :x
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/nort...-swine-flu-has-hit-north-east-72703-23490494/
article said:
It really says something about swine flu's ability to travel that it's made it's way into this tucked away forgotten corner of England (apparently!). :x
I know that, I was trying to make a reference to one of the Ebola outbreaks from the nineties, but apparently I failed miserably.
But I digress.
If you're one of those people who's constantly washing your hands and stuff like that you probably are safer, but how exactly do you stop someone from sneezing on you (or even near)? That's what scares me the most at the moment.
