Absolutely, yeah. Salamence is really good and that translates into tough times whenever he comes onto the field. However, as has been covered before, the prediction is almost never 50/50 (ie. "blind"). You know what move types he has at his disposal (DD and Mix carry exactly the same ones), you know how threatened he is by your current Pokemon, you know the set most threatening to you and what you can afford to risk, hell you should even have a handle on your opponent's playing style by the time Salamence comes out. This all works both ways, of course, but with Salamence's options limited by field and Life Orb damage, I'm not convinced that predicting him is a 50/50 shot in the dark.
It's nice to see someone focusing on the process of playing against Salamence, though, as opposed to the tired "he always gets a kill!/you always have to sacrifice!/etc" arguments that a lot of people are rigidly adhering to. If there is an argument for Salamence to be banned, it's in the processes of beating him, not the on-paper damage calcs. Props.
Thanks. Good arguments, too, and I do agree that it's not a complete 50/50 shot. Then again, you can turn that on its head - I know that you know all those things about my Mence and the game state. I can play on those assumptions. And so we go back round in circles.
The thing about Salamence is its risk/reward. The thing about Mence is that it forces
you to play around
it - you're switching around, so the consequences of a misprediction by you are far worse than the consequences of a misprediction by me, the Mence player. I might Draco Meteor your Scizor - alas! I did some damage, I'll switch out and/or set something else up. If I DD on your switch to Suicune, congratulations - however, as a Mence player, I'm going to be packing a strong switch-in to bulky water-types, and the only real cost to me is a third of my HP and some tempo. Mence can use its incredible resistances and ability to come back in later and force you to make that prediction all over again - especially (not exclusively) if you didn't get Rocks up early-game, or I managed to Spin them away. However, if your Scizor comes in on a Fire Blast, it's dead.
What I think pushes Salamence towards Uber - I'm not yet completely decided on the issue - is that it can force you to make that kind of skewed prediction several times over the course of the game. Generally, making three successful predictions - yes, they're not 50/50 guesses, but no prediction is - would be enough to win a lot of games. The Mence user will turn around to you and say, "Nice Yomi, I only managed to spread significant residual damage and check certain threats - I didn't sweep you."
@ exeCute: Apply that to this line of reasoning. Because it doesn't have Intimidate, it can't as consistently set up the scenarios above. Because it has less Special Attack, it can't as consistently execute the same devastating outcomes. Superpower makes Dragonite a
better stallbreaker than Mence - the speed is mostly irrelevant when you consider the increased coverage, while Intimidate doesn't make much of a difference there either. However, Stallbreaking MixNite isn't nearly as threatening to offensive teams. When it comes to DD, those 80 Speed points make a massive difference - I'd sleep better at night if I knew that my (non-KOd) Scarf Jirachi/Flygon would always be able to stop me getting swept.