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Official NBA 2010-11 Season Thread
- Thread starter HeroMasaki
- Start date
It is not white and black either way. Please stop treating it like it is, that is really dumb. Treating it like they can only win if Derrick Rose lights things up also does not make sense. During the regular season, the Bulls swept the Heat with close wins, an average score of 93-90. That is "defense winning". The efficiency is about the same, but Bulls owned the area around the paint in the regular season. One of the reasons the Bulls are destroying the Celtics is being destroyed in rebounding, and that will not happen to the Bulls (who outrebounded the Heat 43-33 regular season; Celtics lost the rebounding battle regular season even though they were beating the Heat, and have been outrebounded about the same, a margin of 5 instead of 4.5). I am not saying the regular season ensures the Bulls win, I am just saying that the Bulls are the more likely team to win even though they have not stormed through the playoffs so far. Your obsession with matchups is just making you make bad arguments again.
miami had capspace, LA does not. big difference.
I don't really care what the Bulls did during the regular season anymore because they have clearly played worse throughout these playoffs. They aren't going to suddenly play like they have in the regular season. Defenses have clamped down and Rose's efficiency has dropped. He's doing all the work and he's going to probably play even worse if Wade defends him at all.
All of those regular season games were close so I don't know why it has any real bearing; I think it makes much more sense to look at what's happened recently. Recently, the Bulls have struggled offensively, can't do anything without Rose, and their defenses have pretty much been close to each other. All I'm saying that if I'm a betting man, I go with Miami and not looking back.
And I still don't see what's wrong with using match-ups. The Miami's big three outproduced all of Boston's top four scorers. It's as simple as that. If the Bulls want to win, they will have to defend better than Boston and score better than Boston, but I simply don't see it happening because while the Bulls do have better rebounders (I meant to address this before I left), they have less players who can create a shot or go for 20 points. LeBron is honestly too much for Deng if you ask me; that'll be worse than Pierce. Can't hope for Bogans or Korver to do anything either. As I've done many times throughout the middle of the other two series, production by position is simply going to come hard for the Bulls just like the Celtics.
If you don't want to hear match-ups, then I pretty much think this: I'll trust a three-man machine before a one-man machine.
All of those regular season games were close so I don't know why it has any real bearing; I think it makes much more sense to look at what's happened recently. Recently, the Bulls have struggled offensively, can't do anything without Rose, and their defenses have pretty much been close to each other. All I'm saying that if I'm a betting man, I go with Miami and not looking back.
And I still don't see what's wrong with using match-ups. The Miami's big three outproduced all of Boston's top four scorers. It's as simple as that. If the Bulls want to win, they will have to defend better than Boston and score better than Boston, but I simply don't see it happening because while the Bulls do have better rebounders (I meant to address this before I left), they have less players who can create a shot or go for 20 points. LeBron is honestly too much for Deng if you ask me; that'll be worse than Pierce. Can't hope for Bogans or Korver to do anything either. As I've done many times throughout the middle of the other two series, production by position is simply going to come hard for the Bulls just like the Celtics.
If you don't want to hear match-ups, then I pretty much think this: I'll trust a three-man machine before a one-man machine.
Gee I do not know why it has any real bearing when I just pointed out that say the Celtics-Heat rebounding stayed the exact same (35.9 versus 40.4 to 36 to 41). If the Bulls rebound the Heat by 10 a game, then they will win the series runninga way. You would rather fixate on minor issues and pretend this is clear cut, Bulls iz doomed!11 The Bulls have scored 95.1 points per game and given up 89.2. The Heat have scored 94.4 and given up 89. The perception the Bulls are performing worse is in your head. The Bulls outrebounded the Heat and got more assists in the regular season, as well as being superior on FT. Sports are not so simple as for "one team is hot, the other is not" (which is not even the case here) to mean much.
The problem with using matchups is that you say "zomg the bulls will be outscored at three positions, surely they are losing!!!" when in fact facts like "the Bulls will probably outrebound the Heat by a minimum of 7 per game" present a different story. Besides, the Bulls are going to gash the Heat at two positions, we have no idea what the matchup story means. Bosh has played very poorly, why should we care about that matchup (which would leave it at 2-2).
p.s. Mavericks outshot both the Grizzlies and Thunder in the regular season by at least one percent ^_________^ here is hoping that keeps up!
The problem with using matchups is that you say "zomg the bulls will be outscored at three positions, surely they are losing!!!" when in fact facts like "the Bulls will probably outrebound the Heat by a minimum of 7 per game" present a different story. Besides, the Bulls are going to gash the Heat at two positions, we have no idea what the matchup story means. Bosh has played very poorly, why should we care about that matchup (which would leave it at 2-2).
p.s. Mavericks outshot both the Grizzlies and Thunder in the regular season by at least one percent ^_________^ here is hoping that keeps up!
That's because you're just looking at points scored for both teams and nothing else. You're not looking at Rose's increased usage and dropped efficiency, Boozer's drop in scoring and FG% (I'll admit, Deng has surprisingly not dropped off too bad, but then once you put him beside LeBron James..), or decreased bench production.CaptKirby said:
These aren't just minor issues; these are things they are losing that were there in the regular season. They're going to need overall scoring from a lot of these guys because Miami are so far superior offensively than the Hawks and Pacers. Hence why I think Rose is going to be working so hard that it may decrease his efficiency even more. Or maybe he'll get that team effort he needs and they won't do too bad and win the series.
Edit: Scratch that. I made an error. Noah hasn't decreased in rebounding.
That's because Garnett is 100x the defender Boozer will ever be (though if he's defended by Noah I'll concede Bosh). And the match-up story isn't as simple as a soccer scoreboard; it's more about how much you are being outproduced by the other guys on the floor. It's more like "+50 on the perimeter for a series." Basketball is a team sport, and you can only have 5 guys on the court at five positions. The objective is to score more overall points and in order to do that, you have to produce more through several positions. Match-ups work this way.
If you want to look at rebounding being the game changer, that's perfectly fine, but even when the Bulls dominated the boards, they were still within a possession to win. That says more negatively about the Bulls than the Heat if you ask me. You are right that if they do win, it will definitely be by rebounding and blocked shots as that's one thing Boston lacked; but one thing Boston had that Chicago doesn't have is multi-dimensional players surrounding Rose.
Bosh hasn't been terribly consistent in the playoffs so far, but he's played pretty well for the most part, outperforming Garnett 3/4 times so far, including 20/12 last night...
Also, Boozer-mcturftoe HAS had an abysmal playoffs so far. I think it's unreasonable to call that match up a wash.
The reason I see Chicago as not having the advantage against the Heat is the same thing I've been saying for a couple of weeks now, the Bulls overperformed in the regular season. They were a deep team that hustled. Miami has stepped up their game for the playoffs, so have most other playoff teams (HAWKS!), but the Bulls are still playing the same game (and look worse by virtue of their opponents playing better). Everybody hustles in the playoffs and rotations are tightened, weakening two of the Bulls' biggest regular season advantages.
I don't see them outrebounding the Heat by nearly as much if they play next round. All of the big 3 seem to be rebounding at higher clips than they were in the regular season (this is admittedly just my perception, haven't checked the stats anywhere, if somebody feels like it I'd be curious to see). Obviously if Haslem can start to get into the flow of things it will make a huge difference on the boards, too.
I hope it's a great series, but right now I'm inclined to think it'll be Heat in 6.
Also, Boozer-mcturftoe HAS had an abysmal playoffs so far. I think it's unreasonable to call that match up a wash.
The reason I see Chicago as not having the advantage against the Heat is the same thing I've been saying for a couple of weeks now, the Bulls overperformed in the regular season. They were a deep team that hustled. Miami has stepped up their game for the playoffs, so have most other playoff teams (HAWKS!), but the Bulls are still playing the same game (and look worse by virtue of their opponents playing better). Everybody hustles in the playoffs and rotations are tightened, weakening two of the Bulls' biggest regular season advantages.
I don't see them outrebounding the Heat by nearly as much if they play next round. All of the big 3 seem to be rebounding at higher clips than they were in the regular season (this is admittedly just my perception, haven't checked the stats anywhere, if somebody feels like it I'd be curious to see). Obviously if Haslem can start to get into the flow of things it will make a huge difference on the boards, too.
I hope it's a great series, but right now I'm inclined to think it'll be Heat in 6.
I checked this. You would be correct.Phizzlax said:
This series.. is pretty even..
Point guard production:
Thunder's: 139 points, 37 assists, 41% FG
Grizzlies': 93 points, 31 assists, 44% FG
Combined Shooting/Small forward (too much switching to put a guy somewhere):
Thunder's: 209 points, 24 assists (mostly from Harden), 43.6% FG
Grizzlies': 141 points, 24 assists, 41% FG
Combined Power forward/Center (same reasons as above):
Thunder's: 90 points, 86 rebounds
Grizzlies': 206 points, 129 rebounds
Grizzlies - Frontline get.
Bench
Thunder's: 206 points
Grizzlies': 129 points
Grizzlies got the big guys and Memphis has the little guys. I guess you could say the only reason it's even is because of Westbrook's decision making in fourth quarter situations. I suppose I just simply have to favor the Thunder for the series now that Thunder are probably more likely to figure this out (http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/05/10/t...durant-isnt-getting-the-ball-late/#more-14318) than the Grizzlies to make a new strategy. Zach has struggled since game 1 and Conley has been pretty pathetic. OKC also have homecourt advantage back..
Truly unpredictable overall.
Coach Nick on the radio: http://goo.gl/fb/zppjj
The Heat shot much better on threes and had a few less turnovers if I recall. Rebounds are not going to ensure a win, but the Bulls will have the consistency edge by default.
I know what matchups do. Unfortunately they are basically impossible to quantify, which we proved quite nicely with you being completely wrong about the Mavericks-Blazers series. Nice that you ignore the Bulls producing better than the Heat just because "it took more possessions" or whatever though. Nice that you keep assuming Deng will suddenly fail to defend the Heat or something. Garnett is a better defender than Boozer, but an old guy with bad knees who cannot maintain it. Bosh and Boozer create similar benefits and disadvantages for their own teams, I still do not see why you see a difference when Bosh does not work in the Heat system, and although Boozer's injury may be of actual importance, this is not something that will decide the series. I concede that Boozer has fallen off more (I think because of the injury), but Bosh has fallen. Both are looking to continue to suck at offense. Bosh is working on a nice 2-6 right now.
Phizzlax, Boozer and Bosh have rebounded the same and are both shooting .450 even and .417. Bosh's FT has slipped to 75%, but he is getting more than Boozer so that is nice I guess. The matchup is a wash, neither is likely going to contribute enough to alter the series unless it is defensively.
I know what matchups do. Unfortunately they are basically impossible to quantify, which we proved quite nicely with you being completely wrong about the Mavericks-Blazers series. Nice that you ignore the Bulls producing better than the Heat just because "it took more possessions" or whatever though. Nice that you keep assuming Deng will suddenly fail to defend the Heat or something. Garnett is a better defender than Boozer, but an old guy with bad knees who cannot maintain it. Bosh and Boozer create similar benefits and disadvantages for their own teams, I still do not see why you see a difference when Bosh does not work in the Heat system, and although Boozer's injury may be of actual importance, this is not something that will decide the series. I concede that Boozer has fallen off more (I think because of the injury), but Bosh has fallen. Both are looking to continue to suck at offense. Bosh is working on a nice 2-6 right now.
Phizzlax, Boozer and Bosh have rebounded the same and are both shooting .450 even and .417. Bosh's FT has slipped to 75%, but he is getting more than Boozer so that is nice I guess. The matchup is a wash, neither is likely going to contribute enough to alter the series unless it is defensively.
Being wrong about a couple of matches doesn't mean I'm being terribly unreasonable on all the others...
And I didn't say "took more possessions". I said they were within a possession to win the games.
Based on past match-ups, of course (last year most notably). That, and Deng is less offensively equipped than Pierce.
It could happen though, you gotta admit. I'd trade anyone for Dwight
please win celtics
EDIT: oh RIP tractor traylor. bet mavs fans really love this guy huh
It really doesn't matter who they'd be willing to give up, they simply don't have the young talent to pull off that kind of trade. NY had to give up some astronomical number of prospects and picks for Melo, LA is completely incapable of doing that. The Lakers are in a terrible place going forward in terms of cap space, young talent/movable assets, etc.
Celtics just might pull this win off. Maybe they can force a game 7?
NY actually thought they'd contend this year with Melo though, which is why they gutted their roster for him as opposed to playing the waiting game (afaik). Denver bit because if they didn't Melo wouldve just walked away from them. And the same could go for the Magic. They have pm no leverage and assuming Dwight does want to leave they'd want to at least get something in return for him. Look if you have a big chance of losing Dwight for nothing then you should be happy to get the potential 2nd best C in the league to help fill the void.
edit: also you talk as if the lakers won't be contending next season even if they don't get dwight
The Miami Heat retired the Detroit Pistons in 2006... They are now about to retire the Boston Celtics.
Moment of silence, guys.
Moment of silence, guys.
Howard doesn't have a "no-trade clause" and has no control over where he's shipped. The Magic won't trade him unless they're getting a lot back in return, something not really possible from LA. Also Bynum is nowhere near the 2nd best Center in the league =/ he is limited offensively, injury prone, doesn't hustle, and has a major problem with picking up (increasingly severe) suspensions.
Also NY didn't pull the trigger thinking "championship this season", they pulled the trigger because there was a reasonable chance that if they didn't, Melo would've signed the extension with Denver at the last minute.
My comments about the Lakers future should not be taken out of context, all I meant is exactly what I said. They handicapped themselves severely for the future, they won't be able to trade for much, they don't have quality draft picks, and they don't have cap space (and won't for a while). They'll continue to compete, but they're not getting any better. They're like the Celtics right now except the C's don't have anyone signed past 2012 besides Rondo and PP.
In other news, the Heat win in 5 and know how to close out close, physical, gritty games.
there is no god.
@phizzlax: few teams would trade for dwight unless they know fo sho he'll sign with them long term. in this case Lakers are good to go. about bynum, notice i said "potential" as in he can be the consensus #2 C in the league, though a lot of people do agree he's already #2 right now. he's no doubt top 5 atm. also no offense but if you think melo would've not left denver i dunno what to tell you
@phizzlax: few teams would trade for dwight unless they know fo sho he'll sign with them long term. in this case Lakers are good to go. about bynum, notice i said "potential" as in he can be the consensus #2 C in the league, though a lot of people do agree he's already #2 right now. he's no doubt top 5 atm. also no offense but if you think melo would've not left denver i dunno what to tell you
Statistics like what? The road games? The rebounding? I acknowledge them but just don't put as much weight on them... by the way, all of what we're discussing is technically statistics.
And what did I get wrong about the center one?
Still important that despite the rebounding edge, they could have won the games anyway.
I'm down to rooting for the Bulls and Mavericks.
I would absolutely love it if the Bulls beat the Heat. I'm hoping for it. I can't stand that team anymore.
With the CBA expiring Melo would've potentially been walking away from an enormous amount of money by not signing an extension this season. This is the reason NY traded all of their starters and draft picks for him.
I also don't know any non-Lakers homers who think Bynum is the second best Center in the league right now. Players I'd take over Bynum: Noah, Marc Gasol, Brook Lopez, possibly Tyson Chandler or Roy Hibbert.
Bynum has averaged just over 10 points and 7 rebounds for his career, he was marginally above that this season, and as I said he is injury prone (among other problems). Those are not "second best center" stats.
