Gengar @ Gengarite
Ability: Cursed Body
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Hypnosis
- Hex
- Focus Blast
- Substitute / Sludge Wave
60% = You just need to hit Hypnosis and you win
40% = You need to hit Hypnosis and get a two turn sleep
20% = You need to hit Hypnosis and get a max sleep
With that said, let's consider the odds of Gengar securing an automatic win against the upper VR. I'm not including C+ and below because of time and most of those mons are bleh.
E: I've learned after the fact that Cursed Body does not activate behind Substitute, so please excuse me whenever I mention it - Osra 11/8/19
If you've been counting, that's 17 total mons that reliably counter Gengar with a minimum reliability of 76%, most of which relying on either Choice Scarf, for Gengar to not have Sludge Wave, or particular sets in order to win.
20 total mons if you wanna include the extra 3 who counter Gengar with a minimum reliability of 61%.
Interpret the matchups as you will, but I don't find it healthy to have this many things that get slept to death 40% of the time. It'd be okay imo if most of them were 20%s, since that's the same odds as a Waterfall flinch, but this is unfortunately not the case.
Ability: Cursed Body
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Hypnosis
- Hex
- Focus Blast
- Substitute / Sludge Wave
60% = You just need to hit Hypnosis and you win
40% = You need to hit Hypnosis and get a two turn sleep
20% = You need to hit Hypnosis and get a max sleep
60% = the probability of hitting Hypnosis
40% = the probability of hitting Hypnosis and getting a two turn sleep
20% = the probability of hitting Hypnosis and getting a three turn (max) sleep
How Sleep as a status condition works is that a number from 1-3 is randomly generated as soon as the mon is put to sleep. This number, also known as the "sleep counter", determines how many turns the Pokemon afflicted with Sleep will stay asleep, with 1 being the absolute minimum. In the case of Gengar, once a Pokemon has successfully been put to sleep, they will immediately burn up that free turn you get, since Gengar relies on being faster for most of its wins, or would otherwise just rely on Focus Blast for certain cases like Scarf Porygon-Z. With the free turn burnt up after landing Hypnosis, you now either instantly win by OHKOing them with boosted Hex, or you have to get more turns. Needing more turns means that you're relying on the sleep counter to be a number greater than 1; with the only outcomes being 1, 2, or 3, with no extra weighting behind each outcome, this means that your opponent will stay asleep for more than 1 turn 2 out of 3 times upon putting them to sleep. With the odds of your opponent being to sleep being at 60% with Hypnosis' accuracy, this means that the odds of them staying asleep for at least 2 turns are 40%, two thirds of the initial 60%.
Where it gets a bit more complicated is the third turn of sleep. You see, once an opponent has been asleep for 2 turns, you're now limited to 2 outcomes, instead of the initial 3. This is because the chance for a 1 turn sleep is gone, due to the opponent having been asleep for a number of turns greater than 1, thus reducing the final outcome to one of two options: a 2 turn sleep and a 3 turn (or "max") sleep. Because of this, the odds of getting a 3 turn sleep are half the odds of getting a 2 turn sleep: 20%.
40% = the probability of hitting Hypnosis and getting a two turn sleep
20% = the probability of hitting Hypnosis and getting a three turn (max) sleep
How Sleep as a status condition works is that a number from 1-3 is randomly generated as soon as the mon is put to sleep. This number, also known as the "sleep counter", determines how many turns the Pokemon afflicted with Sleep will stay asleep, with 1 being the absolute minimum. In the case of Gengar, once a Pokemon has successfully been put to sleep, they will immediately burn up that free turn you get, since Gengar relies on being faster for most of its wins, or would otherwise just rely on Focus Blast for certain cases like Scarf Porygon-Z. With the free turn burnt up after landing Hypnosis, you now either instantly win by OHKOing them with boosted Hex, or you have to get more turns. Needing more turns means that you're relying on the sleep counter to be a number greater than 1; with the only outcomes being 1, 2, or 3, with no extra weighting behind each outcome, this means that your opponent will stay asleep for more than 1 turn 2 out of 3 times upon putting them to sleep. With the odds of your opponent being to sleep being at 60% with Hypnosis' accuracy, this means that the odds of them staying asleep for at least 2 turns are 40%, two thirds of the initial 60%.
Where it gets a bit more complicated is the third turn of sleep. You see, once an opponent has been asleep for 2 turns, you're now limited to 2 outcomes, instead of the initial 3. This is because the chance for a 1 turn sleep is gone, due to the opponent having been asleep for a number of turns greater than 1, thus reducing the final outcome to one of two options: a 2 turn sleep and a 3 turn (or "max") sleep. Because of this, the odds of getting a 3 turn sleep are half the odds of getting a 2 turn sleep: 20%.
E: I've learned after the fact that Cursed Body does not activate behind Substitute, so please excuse me whenever I mention it - Osra 11/8/19
S Rank
Charizard-Mega - 60% vs unbulked X, 40% vs everything else
Dragonite - 40%
Gyarados-Mega - 28% (2 turn sleep + hitting focus blast) vs unbulkedit's a roll slightly not in your favor vs max HP as well 14% (3 turn sleep + hitting focus blast) vs bulked
Magearna - W with Sub I think?, 60% without Sub
A+ Rank
Porygon-Z - 70% with Focus Blast
Tapu Lele - W with Sludge, 60% without Sludge (with a little extra from the odds of being able to fish for Cursed Body)
A Rank
Greninja - 70% with Focus Blast (with Cursed Body to fish for disable)
Magnezone - 40%
Meloetta - ??? 76% with Sub fishing for Cursed Body, though you also have to hit multiple Focus Blast, so idrk
Metagross-Mega - 60%
Mew - 60% vs Mewnium, W vs Kee?
Slowbro-Mega - W vs physdef with Hex, 80.8% vs spdef (You win if you hit the first one, but still have a backup 40% win on turn 2 if you miss, as well as another backup 20% on turn 3 if you miss turn 2 as well)
Zygarde-Complete - 65.7% with Sub fishing for Cursed Body. You don't have to rely on Focus Blast for this one, but you do need Cursed Body to activate before you use your 4th Sub, since Z-moves bypass being disabled. 20% without Sub
A- Rank
Aegislash - 60% without Sub. With Sub, you can force them to undergo a 50/50 between either attacking again and KOing with Sneak on the next turn, or using King's Shield so they don't get OHKOd in Blade form. The possible outcomes of this are: 60% to hit Hypnosis with them predicting another Sub, 84% with them using Shield which gives you another chance to hit Hypnosis, or a 50% win because you used Hex predicting them to continue attacking.
Gardevoir-Mega - This one varies with their move choice, but at worst it's 60%. At best you get a 65.7% win with Sub fishing for Psyshock to be disabled in the first 3 subs leaving their only other damaging move being Hyper Beam.
Jumpluff - W with Sludge, 60% otherwise
Kommo-o - 40%
Landorus-Therian - 60% vs unbulked, 40% vs bulked, L vs Scarf
Togekiss - 42% (Miss/No flinch) with Sludge vs Scarf, 21.84% (Miss/No Flinch/Cursed Body) without Sludge vs Scarf, 40% vs Z-wave (with some ability to fish for Cursed Body)
B+ Rank
Altaria-Mega - W with Sludge, 60% without Sludge (though they can't really do much to you, damage-wise)
Celesteela - 40% at worst
Clefable - W with Sludge, ??? with Sub (You can fish for Cursed Body + they can't break Sub with 1 Moonblast + you get multiple opportunities to fish for sleep turns)
Donphan - 40%
Garchomp - 40%, L vs Scarf
Genesect - 56% (you get 2 chances to use Hypnosis but need a 2 turn sleep) vs bulky Specs, 60% vs Scarf
Heatran - 40%
Lopunny-Mega - L
Primarina - 40%
Sableye-Mega - L
Tapu Fini - W with Sludge, L without
Tyranitar-Mega - 28% (2 turn sleep with hitting Focus Blast)
Venusaur-Mega - 40% at worst
Zeraora - L vs faster, 40% vs slower with hp/spdef, 60% vs slower without hp/spdef
B Rank
Aggron-Mega - 40%
Crustle - 40%
Ferrothorn - 40% at worst
Incineroar - 28% at worst, though Focus Blast can get some kills vs lesser-bulked Incini with the combined effort of fishing for Flare Blitz recoil after Cursed Body activates
Jirachi - 24% (they don't flinch you + you hit)
Kartana - W
Magneton - 40%
Mawile-Mega - Variable. Playing around with Sub vs Sucker and damage rolls makes this too difficult to calculate.
Naganadel - W with Sub, 60% without Sub
Necrozma - 86.28% (with fishing for Cursed Body on the first 3 subs) with Sub vs Specs, 40% at worst vs Stored Power
Pinsir-Mega - 60%
Porygon2 - Variable. Too hard to calculate between multiple possible p2 spreads, as well as sleep rolls + hitting multiple focus blasts, in addition to the extra turns you have because they can't 2HKO you.
Victini - 60%, L vs Scarf
Volcarona - 40%
B- Rank
Archeops - W (Hex activates Defeatist and they can't KO you), L vs Scarf
Audino-Mega - 28% with Sludge and Focus Blast, L without Sludge
Blastoise-Mega - 40 at worst
Blaziken - 50/50 between Protect vs Sub turn 1. If you hit Hypnosis predicting them to attack turn 1, then it's 40% (they're faster turn 2). If you Sub predicting them to Protect turn 1, then it's 60%
Camerupt-Mega - 40%
Carracosta - 40%
Deoxys-S - L
Diancie-Mega - L
Durant - 72% without Sub, almost guaranteed W with Sub
Golem - 40%
Haxorus - 60%, L vs Scarf
Hoopa-Unbound - 40%, L vs Scarf
Krookodile - 70%
Kyurem - 40%
Latias-Mega - 60%
Manaphy - 40%
Medicham-Mega - 60%
Raikou - 40%
Sawk - 40%, L vs Scarf
Swampert-Mega - 40%
Vivillon - W with Sludge, 60% without Sludge
Whimsicott - W with Sludge, 50/50 without Sludge (your Sub vs their Sub)
Zapdos - 40%
Charizard-Mega - 60% vs unbulked X, 40% vs everything else
Dragonite - 40%
Gyarados-Mega - 28% (2 turn sleep + hitting focus blast) vs unbulked
Magearna - W with Sub I think?, 60% without Sub
A+ Rank
Porygon-Z - 70% with Focus Blast
Tapu Lele - W with Sludge, 60% without Sludge (with a little extra from the odds of being able to fish for Cursed Body)
A Rank
Greninja - 70% with Focus Blast (with Cursed Body to fish for disable)
Magnezone - 40%
Meloetta - ??? 76% with Sub fishing for Cursed Body, though you also have to hit multiple Focus Blast, so idrk
Metagross-Mega - 60%
Mew - 60% vs Mewnium, W vs Kee?
Slowbro-Mega - W vs physdef with Hex, 80.8% vs spdef (You win if you hit the first one, but still have a backup 40% win on turn 2 if you miss, as well as another backup 20% on turn 3 if you miss turn 2 as well)
Zygarde-Complete - 65.7% with Sub fishing for Cursed Body. You don't have to rely on Focus Blast for this one, but you do need Cursed Body to activate before you use your 4th Sub, since Z-moves bypass being disabled. 20% without Sub
A- Rank
Aegislash - 60% without Sub. With Sub, you can force them to undergo a 50/50 between either attacking again and KOing with Sneak on the next turn, or using King's Shield so they don't get OHKOd in Blade form. The possible outcomes of this are: 60% to hit Hypnosis with them predicting another Sub, 84% with them using Shield which gives you another chance to hit Hypnosis, or a 50% win because you used Hex predicting them to continue attacking.
Gardevoir-Mega - This one varies with their move choice, but at worst it's 60%. At best you get a 65.7% win with Sub fishing for Psyshock to be disabled in the first 3 subs leaving their only other damaging move being Hyper Beam.
Jumpluff - W with Sludge, 60% otherwise
Kommo-o - 40%
Landorus-Therian - 60% vs unbulked, 40% vs bulked, L vs Scarf
Togekiss - 42% (Miss/No flinch) with Sludge vs Scarf, 21.84% (Miss/No Flinch/Cursed Body) without Sludge vs Scarf, 40% vs Z-wave (with some ability to fish for Cursed Body)
B+ Rank
Altaria-Mega - W with Sludge, 60% without Sludge (though they can't really do much to you, damage-wise)
Celesteela - 40% at worst
Clefable - W with Sludge, ??? with Sub (You can fish for Cursed Body + they can't break Sub with 1 Moonblast + you get multiple opportunities to fish for sleep turns)
Donphan - 40%
Garchomp - 40%, L vs Scarf
Genesect - 56% (you get 2 chances to use Hypnosis but need a 2 turn sleep) vs bulky Specs, 60% vs Scarf
Heatran - 40%
Lopunny-Mega - L
Primarina - 40%
Sableye-Mega - L
Tapu Fini - W with Sludge, L without
Tyranitar-Mega - 28% (2 turn sleep with hitting Focus Blast)
Venusaur-Mega - 40% at worst
Zeraora - L vs faster, 40% vs slower with hp/spdef, 60% vs slower without hp/spdef
B Rank
Aggron-Mega - 40%
Crustle - 40%
Ferrothorn - 40% at worst
Incineroar - 28% at worst, though Focus Blast can get some kills vs lesser-bulked Incini with the combined effort of fishing for Flare Blitz recoil after Cursed Body activates
Jirachi - 24% (they don't flinch you + you hit)
Kartana - W
Magneton - 40%
Mawile-Mega - Variable. Playing around with Sub vs Sucker and damage rolls makes this too difficult to calculate.
Naganadel - W with Sub, 60% without Sub
Necrozma - 86.28% (with fishing for Cursed Body on the first 3 subs) with Sub vs Specs, 40% at worst vs Stored Power
Pinsir-Mega - 60%
Porygon2 - Variable. Too hard to calculate between multiple possible p2 spreads, as well as sleep rolls + hitting multiple focus blasts, in addition to the extra turns you have because they can't 2HKO you.
Victini - 60%, L vs Scarf
Volcarona - 40%
B- Rank
Archeops - W (Hex activates Defeatist and they can't KO you), L vs Scarf
Audino-Mega - 28% with Sludge and Focus Blast, L without Sludge
Blastoise-Mega - 40 at worst
Blaziken - 50/50 between Protect vs Sub turn 1. If you hit Hypnosis predicting them to attack turn 1, then it's 40% (they're faster turn 2). If you Sub predicting them to Protect turn 1, then it's 60%
Camerupt-Mega - 40%
Carracosta - 40%
Deoxys-S - L
Diancie-Mega - L
Durant - 72% without Sub, almost guaranteed W with Sub
Golem - 40%
Haxorus - 60%, L vs Scarf
Hoopa-Unbound - 40%, L vs Scarf
Krookodile - 70%
Kyurem - 40%
Latias-Mega - 60%
Manaphy - 40%
Medicham-Mega - 60%
Raikou - 40%
Sawk - 40%, L vs Scarf
Swampert-Mega - 40%
Vivillon - W with Sludge, 60% without Sludge
Whimsicott - W with Sludge, 50/50 without Sludge (your Sub vs their Sub)
Zapdos - 40%
20 total mons if you wanna include the extra 3 who counter Gengar with a minimum reliability of 61%.
Interpret the matchups as you will, but I don't find it healthy to have this many things that get slept to death 40% of the time. It'd be okay imo if most of them were 20%s, since that's the same odds as a Waterfall flinch, but this is unfortunately not the case.
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