Critical hit chances haven't changed, so they are still the same chance as
many sites have posted. Nintendo doesn't change their game mechanics much, the hit/crit/damage calcs are the same across gens 5-3 (probably 2 as well). The game just arrives at them differently this gen by using a * instead of a %.
Also, thanks for pointing out that error in that Paralyze post!
Fixed QC's calc
Yes, QC is 20% (0-19 of 99), and since Focus Band is 10%, that's how it is calculated.
Nintendo has something activate/work if it's a low number, instead of high.
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If I had to guess as to how Brightpowder/Lax Incense works, it should only modify the Hit calc by changing the effective accuracy of the move. It should be like this instead of consuming an extra frame on top of the hit calc to see if the item activates or not (because that's pretty redundant) The formula is on Bulbapedia.
Brightpowder would still make a 100% move hit 90% of the time. For increased evasion, it wouldn't be -10%, instead being -10% of whatever % remained. That's what I'd bet on. I'll probably test it tomorrow, it's late!
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Yeah thawing is still 20%. So many places have this wrong, the
onsite article about status is right.