this is from page 5, so take it with a grain of salt, but we've seen half of these scumreads flip, and texas has lightly pursued the other two. standby for me to actually do an iso and see when texas and PS have interacted
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NOC Fire and Ice (9-2-2 Multiball) [won by town]
- Thread starter HeaLnDeaL
- Start date
Votes Panic early on. Still in RVS, so doesn't say too much.
That was pretty fast.
Talking with PS about Fenrir. PS's lowkey defense of Fenrir contrasts U-Turn's accusation.
Barely mentions Panic Station, has him as a null read.
Conclusion: It's possible U-Turn and PS were paired, but there's nothing really pointing in that direction. Honestly, U-Turn is more compatible with Ice.
Language of gods
Panic is a really weird kill tho :thinking:
First interaction with PS is answering a not directly game related question. Eh.
A bit of sheeping with regards to PS.
For a potential scumpartner though, Fenrir is directly interacting with PS quite a bit. I'm not sure what to think of that.
After not interacting with PS for a while, interacts once again. Of note is that none of these reactions really make any judgements or accusations against PS.
Conclusion: The fact that Fenrir was on the same wagon as PS looks good, thing is, that's the only thing that really looks good. However, after reading the posts on Fenrir's side, I believe PS's behavior towards Fenrir could have easily been an attempt at pocketing rather than defending a partner. It could go either way, with me leaning more towards Fenrir not being fire.
Vote: Ampharos
Panic pushed people very little and I don't think Dusk is the one who kill Panic...
This feels like what scum would say on a partner, suspecting but telling it never works and saying it is actually opposite.
our first of the pair, hopped along with me on this RVS. reduces him to pop culture references. sorta yuck when he had provided at least a semblance of a talking point til then.
soft defense of PS, saying that playing with a loud and annoying fellow is something that's just to be suffered through. especially strange to grab that out of a list of four posting quirks that dusk complained about here
aaaand ive lost motivation to post, enjoy this harebrained half a legitimate thought.
This was literally all he posted about Panic Station. PS did prod him several times, but Texas never responded. That alone makes me doubt that they were coordinated. Still a bit weird though.
Conclusion: Some points for, some points against. Not close to as suspicious as Ampharos.
Wait, I didn't even noticed these... Move Texas up to right behind Ampharos.
Yeah, I probably need to get some sleep
This was very early vote in the game followed by an unvote, Sultan wouldn't kill PS based on PS voting him ages ago, also Sultan is town anyway
^this and dusk are only other reads pushes that PS made yesterday and Dusk is a lot less likelier to be ice because of OM, we should probably take a look at U Turn
I don't remember if I said this already but these posts were in response to TBZ for suspecting Caff wagon, they (tbz & ps) are probably not partners
unironically locktown
scatterplot thoughts from a scatterplot reread
OM wants us to think caff's his partner but he's not
i legit don't think texas pretending to be low-effort scum would raise a stink about votecounts being on a google doc
duskfall cleared via wagons because bussing in this setup is trolling and i know from experience that dusk doesn't like bussing anyways
which means v/v eod wagons, v/v/v if you think caff's town (which atm i do)
which is... kinda useless for us?
i'd vaguely put dusk/skook/caff/texas/tbz/shub in my townpile which leaves like... UTO, waterlily, fen
and that's like... way too narrow to be correct
i do think waterlily has a lot of scum equity though. need to find words for it
OM wants us to think caff's his partner but he's not
i legit don't think texas pretending to be low-effort scum would raise a stink about votecounts being on a google doc
duskfall cleared via wagons because bussing in this setup is trolling and i know from experience that dusk doesn't like bussing anyways
which means v/v eod wagons, v/v/v if you think caff's town (which atm i do)
which is... kinda useless for us?
i'd vaguely put dusk/skook/caff/texas/tbz/shub in my townpile which leaves like... UTO, waterlily, fen
and that's like... way too narrow to be correct
i do think waterlily has a lot of scum equity though. need to find words for it
eh mayyybe i walk that back a bit. the more i try to wrap my head around waterlily's partner equity the more confusing it gets
it's an interesting situation because the two eod wagons were largely initiated by the two dead mafia (and btw, lolus for that), despite PS's late-day switch. what do the partners do in that situation? where are their votes more likely to go?
it's especially interesting in waterlily's case because they were the one to really turn dusk into a viable wagon. i kiiiinda wanna say that in light of them probably being v/v wagons, he(?) fits better as a PS partner than an OM partner - it seems more likely that this would be an attempt at creating false competition and making multiple villagers viable lynch choices, rather than just buddying your partner's wagon as hard as possible.
but then i was isoing him and the thing that stuck out big to me today was how much more effort waterlily was putting into finding PS's partner than OM's. this could just be due to postcount differences, but i'd expect the remaining mafia to have a much easier time searching for their opposites than making up shit about their own faction. which would imply that there's greater ice equity for water. which, of course, is completely at odds with the thing i just said.
there's perhaps a world where ice!waterlily is legitimately scumreading heury and decides he's willing to hard buddy OM in order to try to protect them - and in the event that dusk DOES get lynched [assuming he's town] heury probably goes down eventually anyways, given his d1 contributions - and then just fires off a potshot at his top townread overnight (i don't really think there was anything resembling a consensus top town after d1, so i don't necessarily think docdodging or avoiding doubling up was really a huge concern here)
from OM's side, water exists in that sweetspot of buddying that is the NAI-slightly scummy reads tier (i understand, of course, that i also reside here in the same post, but we engage in shameless historical revisionism around these parts). to my knowledge this is his only comment on water.
from water's side, he just kinda calls OM his second highest town without reasons - but he calls everyone everything without reasons, so that's not super helpful. it certainly doesn't do him any favors, i'll say that.
also, point of personal reads-ness: i don't like water's first post of d2, tonally. bad vibes. hopefully not confbiasing
this is far from the most confident case i've ever written, if you can even call it a case
but it's honestly the most in-depth i've thought about this game so far, so that's something
vote: waterlily
if nothing else, help me pursue this tangled web of thoughts to the spider lurking within
it's an interesting situation because the two eod wagons were largely initiated by the two dead mafia (and btw, lolus for that), despite PS's late-day switch. what do the partners do in that situation? where are their votes more likely to go?
it's especially interesting in waterlily's case because they were the one to really turn dusk into a viable wagon. i kiiiinda wanna say that in light of them probably being v/v wagons, he(?) fits better as a PS partner than an OM partner - it seems more likely that this would be an attempt at creating false competition and making multiple villagers viable lynch choices, rather than just buddying your partner's wagon as hard as possible.
but then i was isoing him and the thing that stuck out big to me today was how much more effort waterlily was putting into finding PS's partner than OM's. this could just be due to postcount differences, but i'd expect the remaining mafia to have a much easier time searching for their opposites than making up shit about their own faction. which would imply that there's greater ice equity for water. which, of course, is completely at odds with the thing i just said.
there's perhaps a world where ice!waterlily is legitimately scumreading heury and decides he's willing to hard buddy OM in order to try to protect them - and in the event that dusk DOES get lynched [assuming he's town] heury probably goes down eventually anyways, given his d1 contributions - and then just fires off a potshot at his top townread overnight (i don't really think there was anything resembling a consensus top town after d1, so i don't necessarily think docdodging or avoiding doubling up was really a huge concern here)
from OM's side, water exists in that sweetspot of buddying that is the NAI-slightly scummy reads tier (i understand, of course, that i also reside here in the same post, but we engage in shameless historical revisionism around these parts). to my knowledge this is his only comment on water.
from water's side, he just kinda calls OM his second highest town without reasons - but he calls everyone everything without reasons, so that's not super helpful. it certainly doesn't do him any favors, i'll say that.
also, point of personal reads-ness: i don't like water's first post of d2, tonally. bad vibes. hopefully not confbiasing
this is far from the most confident case i've ever written, if you can even call it a case
but it's honestly the most in-depth i've thought about this game so far, so that's something
vote: waterlily
if nothing else, help me pursue this tangled web of thoughts to the spider lurking within
GTH if i'm misclearing anyone in my townpile it's one of tbz/caff
pretty confident on dusk/texas/skook
i buy that i may have jumped the gun on the "townslips" i caught yesterday, but i think the way shub corrected me on theirs was a towny thing to do, because i think as scum it would have been really easy to write that off as "lmao oops i sure did do that huh"
tbz, though, i can buy brainfarting on alignment numbers as scum. sorry tbz.
fen needs to post more and UTO gets the dubious honor of being my Big Ol' Blindspot(tm) for this game that i'll struggle to wrap my head around for 3-4 days until the problem's staring me in the face and i'm literally forced to confront it
pretty confident on dusk/texas/skook
i buy that i may have jumped the gun on the "townslips" i caught yesterday, but i think the way shub corrected me on theirs was a towny thing to do, because i think as scum it would have been really easy to write that off as "lmao oops i sure did do that huh"
tbz, though, i can buy brainfarting on alignment numbers as scum. sorry tbz.
fen needs to post more and UTO gets the dubious honor of being my Big Ol' Blindspot(tm) for this game that i'll struggle to wrap my head around for 3-4 days until the problem's staring me in the face and i'm literally forced to confront it
But here keeping bus vote when town wagon already reached most votes would be a viable option and if you read what happened at last hour of eod, Panic seemed to try gathering people who are voting dusk but not on thread (all of them, which were taking up 3/5 people in his post), OM didn't have many interactions or hard scumreads that they tried to lynch except for dusk whom they pushed hardly.
you're missing several years of history of me being annoyed with fundamental differences in however panic station talks/operates/thinks to the point of not bothering to interact