NOC Fire and Ice (9-2-2 Multiball) [won by town]

unvote

Okay.

1. CaffeineBoost - Town
2. Duskfall98 - Town
3. OM - Scum
4. Panic Station - Town
5. Ampharos - Scum
6. Thunder~BALLZ - Town
7. Texas Cloverleaf - Town
8. Fenrir Aesir - Town
9. Waterlily3 - Town
10. U-Turn Out - Town
11. heuryalone - Scum
12. Sultan of Skook - Town
13. Shubaka17 - Scum

One of those Townreads is begrudging, guess which one. (Hint: hateboner)
this is from page 5, so take it with a grain of salt, but we've seen half of these scumreads flip, and texas has lightly pursued the other two. standby for me to actually do an iso and see when texas and PS have interacted
 
vote panic station explain

Don't really have any reads yet.
Votes Panic early on. Still in RVS, so doesn't say too much.

vote caffeineboost
That was pretty fast.

I subbed in halfway through d2 and got nightkilled so didn't get to see much, but he afked d3 under pressure. Don't know too much about his playstyle tbh.

Pretty sure you were wagoned d1, not talking about the JK redirect
Talking with PS about Fenrir. PS's lowkey defense of Fenrir contrasts U-Turn's accusation.

Because Dusk going from top townread to top scumread would be weird.

Scumreads are CB, Fenrir, Heury, Texas.

#306 seems like a pocket attempt from CB, he townread me without much reasoning and pretty much agreed with why I find him scummy only to lower the read on me after I'm inactive and no longer pressuring him. My previous reasoning is still valid. Pretty interesting how everyone is town reading him.

Fenrir and Heury have the same problem of posting and dipping, Heury is usually pretty active so I'm surprised he hasn't posted, especially because he's under pressure. I played 1 scum game with Fenrir and the tone/activity was the same, never saw his town game though.

I went back and couldn't find the post # but Texas got mad at Sultan for something minor which I would expect him to just ignore if he was town, it read like he's threatening Sultan off him. People are town reading him for playing in his new town meta but I don't think we've seen new scum!Texas so can't give him a free townread off that. Aside from that post he's fine but it gave me bad vibes.

I townread Shub TBZ Amy.

Dusk idk but I'm not lynching him today. Kind of weird that he's getting scumread and voted tbh since I assume he has a good reputation, I saw him lurking last night a couple of times but I don't think inactivity is AI for him? Watch OM call us partners.

OM and Sultan walled it up. Don't really have much of a read because I've just been briefly skimming the thread and didn't closely analyze their posts, so I won't vote them up. Same for waterlily and panic station.
Barely mentions Panic Station, has him as a null read.

Conclusion: It's possible U-Turn and PS were paired, but there's nothing really pointing in that direction. Honestly, U-Turn is more compatible with Ice.
 
How'd that go for you last time?

This is a hype PL; it's been a long time since I've played with shub/dusk and I don't think I've ever played with Amy (discounting MU team game, which was sort of a weird experience). No strong reads at present. I too don't follow Texas's thing about Caffeine (namely to what extent it's intended seriously), but I'm watching CaffeineBoost currently for whether or not he goes on about how Panic's different this game, as well as something else.
First interaction with PS is answering a not directly game related question. Eh.

Liking Caffeine more since I last checked in. Think as scum he usually feels over-the-top and superficial, which doesn't look to be the case here.

Also vibe with Amy's case for scum!heury, but not her case for town!Thunder (mostly because Thunder in my experience doesn't make reads based on the # of scum in the game regardless of whether it's at the forefront of his mind or not).



This is the first thing that actually gets my attention, because there was a whole thing in CK9++ about people making reads like this. It became a whole thing because I started drawing attention to it and making it a thing, but Panic was in agreement with me on reads like this not being a good look, even specifying that he felt scum/town conditional reads were alright but not scum/scum conditional reads.

Probably gonna end up low-efforting this game more tbh. U-Turn Out last game's AFK was more a result of not having time to regularly check in during D3 and less feeling pressured (although that def didn't help).

Unvote Thunder~BALLZ; Vote: Panic Station
A bit of sheeping with regards to PS.

Brain's not functioning right now, how do you feel on Thunder currently?
For a potential scumpartner though, Fenrir is directly interacting with PS quite a bit. I'm not sure what to think of that.

Is this intended as a towncore or PoE
After not interacting with PS for a while, interacts once again. Of note is that none of these reactions really make any judgements or accusations against PS.

Conclusion: The fact that Fenrir was on the same wagon as PS looks good, thing is, that's the only thing that really looks good. However, after reading the posts on Fenrir's side, I believe PS's behavior towards Fenrir could have easily been an attempt at pocketing rather than defending a partner. It could go either way, with me leaning more towards Fenrir not being fire.
 
vote panic station

i approve of the wagon on the guy who speaks in pop culture references
our first of the pair, hopped along with me on this RVS. reduces him to pop culture references. sorta yuck when he had provided at least a semblance of a talking point til then.
this is literally every game he's ever played
soft defense of PS, saying that playing with a loud and annoying fellow is something that's just to be suffered through. especially strange to grab that out of a list of four posting quirks that dusk complained about here


aaaand ive lost motivation to post, enjoy this harebrained half a legitimate thought.
 
our first of the pair, hopped along with me on this RVS. reduces him to pop culture references. sorta yuck when he had provided at least a semblance of a talking point til then.

soft defense of PS, saying that playing with a loud and annoying fellow is something that's just to be suffered through. especially strange to grab that out of a list of four posting quirks that dusk complained about here


aaaand ive lost motivation to post, enjoy this harebrained half a legitimate thought.
Wait, I didn't even noticed these... Move Texas up to right behind Ampharos.
 
Yeah, since the other four have more posts, and I don't want any more obvious errors like missing those two posts from Texas, I'll wait 'til tomorrow when I'm more well-rested to finish the rest.
 
Vote Skook
This was very early vote in the game followed by an unvote, Sultan wouldn't kill PS based on PS voting him ages ago, also Sultan is town anyway
Well, I have been thinking about how UTO cited TBZ as a good reason to be on the Caff wagon when TBZ's stance is really uhhhhhh and how Dusk looked at UTO's citation and went "i'mma sheep that".

unvote vote U-Turn


scroll up
^this and dusk are only other reads pushes that PS made yesterday and Dusk is a lot less likelier to be ice because of OM, we should probably take a look at U Turn
1) He said in the pregame he was gonna do it. 2) One of the cases on Caff was that he's scum becuase he's pinging to signal his partner, you. 3) Caff is being Caff, whereas Heury hasn't done any fishing this time around.
Also this pinged me becuase I pointed out something illogical about him liking the Caff wagon and he shrugged it off.
I don't remember if I said this already but these posts were in response to TBZ for suspecting Caff wagon, they (tbz & ps) are probably not partners
 

Ampharos

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heury (5): caffbo, amy, dusk, uto, texas
duskfall (4): OM, waterlily, panic, fen
caffbo (2): tbz, shuba
shubaka (1): sultan

not voting (1): heury

lol wagonomics on d1 of f&i but i'm quoting this for my own sanity
 

Ampharos

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scatterplot thoughts from a scatterplot reread

OM wants us to think caff's his partner but he's not

i legit don't think texas pretending to be low-effort scum would raise a stink about votecounts being on a google doc

duskfall cleared via wagons because bussing in this setup is trolling and i know from experience that dusk doesn't like bussing anyways

which means v/v eod wagons, v/v/v if you think caff's town (which atm i do)

which is... kinda useless for us?

i'd vaguely put dusk/skook/caff/texas/tbz/shub in my townpile which leaves like... UTO, waterlily, fen

and that's like... way too narrow to be correct

i do think waterlily has a lot of scum equity though. need to find words for it
 

Ampharos

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eh mayyybe i walk that back a bit. the more i try to wrap my head around waterlily's partner equity the more confusing it gets

it's an interesting situation because the two eod wagons were largely initiated by the two dead mafia (and btw, lolus for that), despite PS's late-day switch. what do the partners do in that situation? where are their votes more likely to go?

it's especially interesting in waterlily's case because they were the one to really turn dusk into a viable wagon. i kiiiinda wanna say that in light of them probably being v/v wagons, he(?) fits better as a PS partner than an OM partner - it seems more likely that this would be an attempt at creating false competition and making multiple villagers viable lynch choices, rather than just buddying your partner's wagon as hard as possible.

but then i was isoing him and the thing that stuck out big to me today was how much more effort waterlily was putting into finding PS's partner than OM's. this could just be due to postcount differences, but i'd expect the remaining mafia to have a much easier time searching for their opposites than making up shit about their own faction. which would imply that there's greater ice equity for water. which, of course, is completely at odds with the thing i just said.

there's perhaps a world where ice!waterlily is legitimately scumreading heury and decides he's willing to hard buddy OM in order to try to protect them - and in the event that dusk DOES get lynched [assuming he's town] heury probably goes down eventually anyways, given his d1 contributions - and then just fires off a potshot at his top townread overnight (i don't really think there was anything resembling a consensus top town after d1, so i don't necessarily think docdodging or avoiding doubling up was really a huge concern here)

from OM's side, water exists in that sweetspot of buddying that is the NAI-slightly scummy reads tier (i understand, of course, that i also reside here in the same post, but we engage in shameless historical revisionism around these parts). to my knowledge this is his only comment on water.

from water's side, he just kinda calls OM his second highest town without reasons - but he calls everyone everything without reasons, so that's not super helpful. it certainly doesn't do him any favors, i'll say that.

also, point of personal reads-ness: i don't like water's first post of d2, tonally. bad vibes. hopefully not confbiasing

this is far from the most confident case i've ever written, if you can even call it a case

but it's honestly the most in-depth i've thought about this game so far, so that's something

vote: waterlily

if nothing else, help me pursue this tangled web of thoughts to the spider lurking within
 

Ampharos

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i realize the above post leads with "maybe i walk back that scumread" and ends with "nah imma vote that scumread"

real thinking out loud hours
 

Ampharos

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GTH if i'm misclearing anyone in my townpile it's one of tbz/caff

pretty confident on dusk/texas/skook

i buy that i may have jumped the gun on the "townslips" i caught yesterday, but i think the way shub corrected me on theirs was a towny thing to do, because i think as scum it would have been really easy to write that off as "lmao oops i sure did do that huh"

tbz, though, i can buy brainfarting on alignment numbers as scum. sorry tbz.

fen needs to post more and UTO gets the dubious honor of being my Big Ol' Blindspot(tm) for this game that i'll struggle to wrap my head around for 3-4 days until the problem's staring me in the face and i'm literally forced to confront it
 

Ampharos

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ok, i sleep

i beat sonic generations btw

which means i'm between video games

which is ostensibly a good thing for getting my adhd ass to focus on this game
 
I'm not Ice I am water its over 0C degrees My reads were confbiased on dusk being scum, also the ones you said that had no reasons like my OM read D1, because I think he is scum, i will make a post about it but it's clear that he hasn't shown any towniness in game and you are clearing him just based on what you think scum would do in this setup,

But here keeping bus vote when town wagon already reached most votes would be a viable option and if you read what happened at last hour of eod, Panic seemed to try gathering people who are voting dusk but not on thread (all of them, which were taking up 3/5 people in his post), OM didn't have many interactions or hard scumreads that they tried to lynch except for dusk whom they pushed hardly.
 
soft defense of PS, saying that playing with a loud and annoying fellow is something that's just to be suffered through. especially strange to grab that out of a list of four posting quirks that dusk complained about here
This was literally all he posted about Panic Station. PS did prod him several times, but Texas never responded. That alone makes me doubt that they were coordinated. Still a bit weird though.

Conclusion: Some points for, some points against. Not close to as suspicious as Ampharos.
you're missing several years of history of me being annoyed with fundamental differences in however panic station talks/operates/thinks to the point of not bothering to interact
 
i legit don't think texas pretending to be low-effort scum would raise a stink about votecounts being on a google doc

duskfall cleared via wagons because bussing in this setup is trolling and i know from experience that dusk doesn't like bussing anyways

which means v/v eod wagons, v/v/v if you think caff's town (which atm i do)
hey neat i didnt think about the first one

2 and 3 i agree with
 

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