This is a technical post again, for the interested reader. I decided to use my program to make a probability estimation in a more complicated situation than what I already did forn-HKO lead probabilities (factoring in crits and other random effects of moves, such as misses, status inflictions and stat raises/drops, taking into account items such as Sitrus/Lum Berry and Leftovers as well).

Lately I've had many discussions EV-ing the following Pokemon, informally called FatMence:

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Salamence @ Leftovers

Ability: Intimidate

EVs: 52 HP / a lot of Atk / a lot of Def / maybe a tiny bit of SpD / 16 Spe

Adamant Nature (+Atk, -SpA)

IVs: either perfect or 30 SpA / 30 SpD / 30 Spe for HP[Flying]

- Dragon Dance

- Substitute

- Aerial Ace / Hidden Power [Flying]

- Earthquake

It is most commonly seen on cripple + setup teams and sometimes on a Trick team (such as Trick + Grudge Ninetales) because it makes Substitutes that are unbreakable by Struggle after Intimidate, and it sweepsnearlythe entire pool of Frontier opponents after setting up to +6/+6.

In fact, the only non-Frontier Brain Pokemon that can survive its HP[Flying] after setup are Skarmory, Lunatone, Solrock, Zapdos, Slaking, Umbreon, Regice, Cloyster, Suicune, Aerodactyl, Lapras, Articuno and maybe Dewgong if you use Aerial Ace and less-than-max Attack. The Pokemon in red can be dangerous if your Substitute got broken before. Or they might break your Substitute and open up Salamence to Quick Claw / Brightpowder / Focus Band hax after that, for example. Or you simply might get two of them in succession during a bad matchup.

The most logical, straightforward thing to do is simply use Hidden Power [Flying] with 252+ Attack, since that indeed maximizes all the rolls and even eliminates Pokemon from the list above:

Skarmory (Skarmory-Boss [Noland Silver†]) HP Flying 52.9 - 62.7% 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery Skarmory (Skarmory-Boss [Noland Gold†]) HP Flying 52.9 - 62.7% 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery Skarmory (Skarmory-3 [579]) HP Flying 58.7 - 69.1% guaranteed 2HKO Skarmory (Skarmory-4 [675]) HP Flying 58.7 - 69.1% guaranteed 2HKO Skarmory (Skarmory-1 [387]) HP Flying 62.7 - 73.9% guaranteed 2HKO Skarmory (Skarmory-2 [483]) HP Flying 62.7 - 73.9% guaranteed 2HKO Lunatone (Lunatone-1 [223]) HP Flying 77.4 - 91.5% guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery Lunatone (Lunatone-2 [328]) HP Flying 77.4 - 91.5% guaranteed 2HKO Solrock (Solrock-1 [224]) HP Flying 86.4 - 102.2% 18.8% chance to OHKO Solrock (Solrock-2 [329]) HP Flying 86.4 - 102.2% 18.8% chance to OHKO Zapdos (Zapdos-1 [758]) HP Flying 92.7 - 109.6% 56.3% chance to OHKO Zapdos (Zapdos-2 [769]) HP Flying 92.7 - 109.6% 56.3% chance to OHKO Zapdos (Zapdos-3 [780]) HP Flying 92.7 - 109.6% 56.3% chance to OHKO Zapdos (Zapdos-4 [791]) HP Flying 92.7 - 109.6% 56.3% chance to OHKO Zapdos (Zapdos-5 [873]) HP Flying 92.7 - 109.6% 56.3% chance to OHKO Zapdos (Zapdos-6 [874]) HP Flying 92.7 - 109.6% 56.3% chance to OHKO Shuckle (Shuckle-Boss [Lucy Silver]) HP Flying 92.9 - 109.4% 56.3% chance to OHKO Slaking (Slaking-1 [468]) HP Flying 93.4 - 110.1% 62.5% chance to OHKO Slaking (Slaking-2 [564]) HP Flying 95.1 - 112% 68.8% chance to OHKO Slaking (Slaking-3 [660]) HP Flying 95.1 - 112% 68.8% chance to OHKO

But of course, some extra EVs in Defense are very welcome while setting up, and you might want to try Aerial Ace to prevent Brightpowder hax against many opponents in general. When using HP[Flying], general good marks are 202 Attack for the 50% against Zapdos, or even as low as 199 with 43.8% to OHKO Zapdos and still OHKO Aerodactyl, bulky Regice and Suicune.

But in this post I would like to giveSkarmory-3 [579], the one with Curse, Fly, Toxic and Rest, some attention. If you played this kind of Salamence (or Gyarados for that matter) before, you're probably familiar with the risk of not 2HKOing (because it uses Curse after the first hit) and letting it setup because of Chesto Rest. If this Skarmory pulls through, it will counter you with +6 Fly eventually, as you won't be able to outstall all of its 15 PP by using Substitute usually.

Of course, if you critically hit somewhere, you win automatically, but in general it can be a very lengthy process, and there's always a chance you won't get it before Skarmory starts using attacks of its own. All-in-all, I kept wondering what theeventualwinning probability is for Salamence, so I used my program to simulate this situation 10.000 times for different Attack stats and both for Aerial Ace and Hidden Power [Flying]. I didn't want to simulate a million battles, because I this PC can only do around 60~70 battles per second as some of them take long. With these settings I needed around 3 minutes per case. How little Attack can you afford to still have really good chance of beating it?

In these simulations, I assumed the following, which I hope reflect the actual game's strategy but to my feeling it does:

The last assumption is to prevent having to think about Fly mechanics, but reflects the situation where Skarmory will start using Fly, so Salamence won't be able to use many Hidden Powers anymore in fear of Toxic. While not a losing scenario per se, it sure looks bad for Salamence. This should be taken into account when looking at the final results. Note that the 2HKO from the start is present with decent Attack stat, but the probability of not critting diminishes as well.

- Skarmory uses Curse if its HP is greater than or equal to half its HP (86) and Rest otherwise (first time it consumes Chesto Berry ofc);
- Salamence is at +6 Attack and only spams its Flying-type STAB;
- If Skarmory faints, Salamence wins (duh);
- If Skarmory gets to +6/+6/-6,
is not sleeping, and has more than 65% HP left, Skarmory 'wins'.

The results

In the following table, I rounded the four-decimal ratio estimators to two places a bit arbitrarily, but since it's still a Monte Carlo simulation I decided to go for a lazy cutoff to reduce "arbitrary garbage info" as much as possible. Since it's a "Bernoulli trial" estimator of sorts, it's hard to build a good confidence interval, and even rounding to full percentages leaves room for small error, although not too likely.

Attack stat EVs required AA win probability HP[Flying] win probability 205 252 0.74 1.00 (not guaranteed) 204 244 0.74 1.00 (not guaranteed) 203 236 0.72 0.99 202 228 0.72 0.98 201 220 0.71 0.98 200 212 0.71 0.98 199 204 0.70 0.96 194 (Gyarados) 252 - 0.87

Note that some Atk stats are redundant, such as 201 Attack, since it doesn't change the range against Skarmory and only changes the range of Aerial Ace against Zapdos, which is a 2HKO anyway.

Conclusion

Use Sharp Beak if you want the guaranteed win, haha. On a more serious note, use this for your own team!

Of course, I could have made these calculations exact simply by analysing the damage range and crits after. But I wanted to illustrate the power of simulations and use the scenario as a practice case.

If you want to see more of these kind of calculations, please let me know.

Absolutely beautiful post. I've been running a lot of Mence lately and you've helped me a lot with running a spread.

My personal opinion on the best bulky Salamence spread is this one :

**180 HP/ 220 Attack / 92 Def/ 16 Speed**

Edit: 52 HP / 228 attack / 214 Def / 16 Speed.

**HP Flying. 31/31/31/ 30/30 /30**Edit: 52 HP / 228 attack / 214 Def / 16 Speed.

**HP Flying. 31/31/31/ 30/30 /30.**This is also viable for limiting recoil on struggle teams.

Faster than:

**Slaking and Slow Zapdos before a DD.**

**Only Jolteon 4**out speeds after a DD.

Achieves all the ohkoes/ 2 hit koes that you need to with HP flying.

Bulk level: THICKKK. An absolute tank. You absolutely need support to set up though, especially since it's speed tier before a DD is suboptimal.

If you want a faster DD user (so you aren't threatened as much before a DD), I would recommend using

**AT LEAST 220 speed (224 on 30 iv) for a faster variant.**

I lost twice (once to Electabuzz 2 and Tentacruel 3) because of lack of speed. 252 speed is also viable if you feel more comfortable speed tying the base 100s and outspeeding Latios 8 and Latias 8 (which don't have super effective moves to hit you by the way). However, I will remind everyone that Mence's power isn't particularly great before a DD anyways.

For instance, you don't always ohko Pinsir 2 and Jolteon 3 before a DD.

**252+ Atk Salamence Earthquake vs. 170 HP / 170+ Def Jolteon: 140-166 (86.9 - 103.1%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO**

252+ Atk Salamence Hidden Power Flying vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Pinsir: 134-162 (95.7 - 115.7%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

252+ Atk Salamence Hidden Power Flying vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Pinsir: 134-162 (95.7 - 115.7%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

This is the reason I feel more comfortable running 220 speed and forgoing the extra speed. But I'll let everyone else decide for themselves how much speed to run on a faster variant.

Spread would look like this: 52 HP/ 236 Attack / 224 speed (For the 30 speed iv, Hp flying one).

If you do plan on running Aerial Ace, it's only really viable on the bulky Salamence spread (sacrifice some def for attack). You want

**at least 236 attack or 244 for the clean 2ko on Skarm**. Here's the calculations.

+6 236+ Atk Salamence Earthquake vs. 170 HP / 170 Def Suicune: 196-231 (100 - 117.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

+6 236+ Atk Salamence Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Regice: 182-215 (97.3 - 114.9%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

+6 244+ Atk Salamence Aerial Ace vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Skarmory: 86-102 (50 - 59.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

**+6 236+ Atk Salamence Aerial Ace vs. +1 252 HP / 0 Def Skarmory: 57-68 (33.1 - 39.5%) -- 100% chance to 3HKO**

Spread would look like this : 180 HP/ 244 Attack / 74 Def / 12 Speed.

Item choice:

**Leftovers/ Lum/ Sharp Beak**is my preference for item on Mence. I rather have the rolls on damage than the extra power.

Lum in particular is very useful for the faster variant (which lowers your risk against t-wave Jolteon).

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