That's not a bad trade for Philadelphia at all. Cosart and Singleton are top prospects, but they're still prospects, and neither have even faced double A yet, and how you perform in that level can make or break your career.
Besides, neither are even that great. Singleton projects to top out as a 20-25 HR player, which really isn't anything special at first, even with his good approach. Solid player, nothing more. Cosart is likely a reliever in the long run.
Meanwhile, Pence is a solid outfielder, and fits exactly what the Phillies need. He's a durable and reliable hitter, who also happens to play outfield and bats right handed, both thing the Phillies were really lacking. Any capable lefty could eat that lineup whole. Not only that, but he's under club control through 2013. I really like this deal for both sides, which is strange since neither front office is all that great.
This is a solid haul for Houston though. I give them a lot of credit for not backing down on their demands, and they eventually got what they wanted.
Now maybe they can also flip Michael Bourn to Atlanta. That's another good match.
Pence definitely fits the Phillies...but the thing is, they didn't need to make this trade. without making it, the Phillies are still the best team in the NL, best record in baseball. The playoffs are a crapshoot, as well, with the game heavily slanted towards good pitching. Phillies already have a weighted dice rolling with their top 3 -- Hunter Pence will do little to help them win a WS ring. if they do, it'll be on the backs of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. unlike SF, a team that couldn't score runs to save its life, Philly did not need an offensive boost. They are still 6th in the league in scoring as of today.
Bottom line is that, while it's a good trade and addresses a Philly need, they didn't NEED to make it. they gave up two top prospects (regardless of what you think their projections are, they are consensus A prospects) plus two PTBNL for decent corner OF in Pence who is about to get real expensive in arbitration.
The move demonstrates Ruben Amaro's fundamental shortcomings:
1. Unable to evaluate player talent or the market. Pence is a good player and will help the Phillies win a title this year more than Raul Ibanez or Dominic Brown could. But he wasn't the best player available! Amaro could have had Beltran at a much lower price (maybe just Cosart + low tier guy), who is far and away the better player than Pence. If Amaro really wanted a guy for next season, BJ Upton offers a greater upside than Hunter Pence and likely would have cost the same. if Amaro wanted to pay top price for top talent, he could have done better. If he recognized the market, he could have paid a pittance in comparison for Beltran or he could have paid almost nothing for a guy like Jeff Franceour (who, while he sucks, is still very good at hitting LHP, making for a good platoon with one of the corner OFs) or Josh Willingham. the upgrade wouldn't have been as large as with Pence but the price would have been far less and the impact will probably be the same: negligible. instead of winning the NL East by 5 games, they win by 6 or something.
2. No regards to finances. Pence is going to cost upwards of $25M from 2012-2013. With all the money that Ruben has committed (Ryan Howard, needing to retain Rollins, raises to all his other players) + a payroll that is already "maxed out," how can he expect to retain Cole Hamels? Hamels is on pace to shatter the biggest salary given to a pitcher. Contrary to what Philly fans believe, money does not, in fact, grow on trees. Hamels is going to cost north of $20M per year for 5 or 6 years (unless he were to take a huge discount to stay with the Phillies).
Philly fans can love this trade all they want as long as they recognize that it is a great overpay. to quote a super awesome owner, Pence is a good player. Not a superstar. a good player. And the Phillies paid superstar price for him. It will help them this year (although only marginally if they demote Brown and keep Ibanez playing). I just hope you all recognize what Amaro is doing to your club. with reckless contracts being given out and uneven player trades, he's shown he's a GM of the Omar Minaya school -- throw resources at a problem and hope it works for a year, the future be damned.
The Phillies were already a lock to go to the playoffs and already a favorite in that first series, no matter who they played. they are already a favorite in the NLCS (if they make it there) as well. This trade does not change that and that's why I don't think it's a good one. It makes sense and fills a need but it was unnecessary.
