”what about tuaros-paldea???”
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np: SV OU Suspect Process, Round 2 - Munch
- Thread starter Finchinator
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Not to say wether Chien-Pao is broken or not (i personally think it should be banned).
Don't manually edit calcs, they can often portray misleading information, especially since all the calcs you showed are actually with Tera Dark, Choice Band and Sword of Ruin (although the last one can easily be implied). Even if you mention the specifics before, it's usually good practice to keep the calcs as they are, especially for people that skim threads, who will see weird calcs and assume they're true.
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 192-228 (63.1 - 75%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 238-280 (47.2 - 55.5%) -- 75.4% chance to 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Azumarill: 151-178 (37.3 - 44%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Amoonguss: 328-386 (75.9 - 89.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Corviknight: 252-298 (63.1 - 74.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 238-280 (47.2 - 55.5%) -- 75.4% chance to 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Azumarill: 151-178 (37.3 - 44%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Amoonguss: 328-386 (75.9 - 89.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Corviknight: 252-298 (63.1 - 74.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
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I have recently started playing more OU, and to be honest, before playing lots of OU I thought "why not ban Chien-Pao?," but now I think that a Chien-Pao ban is not necessary. My team was not specifically built to destroy Chien-Pao, but it still works well against it. I run a niche Mismagius with focus sash that has memento and will-o-wisp, and this has been helpful against Chien-Pao leads. My Dondozo works easily against Chien-Pao. Chien-Pao is not an overpowered threat to the meta, and it's not a Pokemon where you lose if it's not on your team. I believe that it should not be banned, but maybe suspected once Pokemon Home connection comes out, because if Chien-Pao isn't overbearing right now, I doubt that it will be after the Pokemon Home inclusion.
DOWN IN OHIO
SWAG LIKE OHIO
I like the ohio flutter mane strats, eventually ill make a big post about it
Bro, I think you need to look at this
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 238-280 (47.2 - 55.5%) -- 75.4% chance to 2HKO
Even if you're running SD and other tera, you can just plan for donzo and tauros and there, that's your whole game, and even if you still not convinced, I'm gonna copypaste the calcs M24 already made
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 192-228 (63.1 - 75%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Azumarill: 151-178 (37.3 - 44%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Amoonguss: 328-386 (75.9 - 89.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Corviknight: 252-298 (63.1 - 74.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
ALSO, fun fact, its
time252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Chesnaught: 360-426 (94.7 - 112.1%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Chesnaught: 113-134 (29.7 - 35.2%) -- 20.1% chance to 3HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Ice Shard vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Chesnaught: 170-204 (44.7 - 53.6%) -- 35.2% chance to 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Tera Dark Chien-Pao Sacred Sword vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Chesnaught: 128-151 (33.6 - 39.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
0 Atk Chesnaught Drain Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Dark Chien-Pao: 206-246 (68.4 - 81.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
And you guys though he couldn't do it
these are all resists btw, SD does even more
This is super interesting and suggests that chien-pao isn't truly centralizing or broken at top level despite being one of the strongest mons in the tier. I've been going back and forth but am currently leaning towards voting no ban. Not only does counterplay exist but I'm also just not crazy about banning the premier offensive threat every time a new one emerges. Unless a mon endangers the competitive integrity of the game then it should probably remain legal.
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Shuckle: 70-84 (28.6 - 34.4%) -- 2.9% chance to 3HKO
Yeah, this thing is not broken.
I'd frankly say it is when one misprediction from the opponent means something gets chunked for a lot of damage, if not outright KOed. Also, two of those mons you listed lack recovery, and all three often end up being used for - and taking hits from - other mons.
I'd say looking at stuff like that is deceptive because naturally, the players in something like SPL will play around something like that. Either way, what little "counterplay" there is is shaky as fuck, and in my book, nothing screams "endangering the competitive integrity of the game" like smashing the premier walls like they're paper cups, and outspeeding nearly every mon for good measure.
The fact you have to go that far speaks for itself, honestly.
Personally, I'd say suicide trades just to burn Pao and drop its stats, not even KOing it outright, aren't in your favor more often than not. Otherwise, Sturdy Avalugg would be considered a great counter to Chi-Yu that balances it out since it can live a hit and fire back with Body Press. Plus that requires extra hazard removal emphasis, which is another extra step the Pao user does not have to do in order to do the same thing it always does.
The issue isn't whether or not it's possible to beat Pao at all. As has been said here, either elemental Paldean Tauros can beat it pretty reliably, as long as it's their first switch-in. You can burn your own Tera to stuff its Crunch and live a hit you wouldn't have otherwise. You can beat Pao if you put your mind to it. The issue, rather, is two things. How accessible and broadly useful is that counterplay, and how large of the margin of cost between both players?
For accessibility, just ask yourself if anti-Pao tech is really useful for anything besides countering Pao, or if it ends up kinda being dead weight if it's already done its job or Pao doesn't come in. The Tauros Bros are RU for a reason, and in OU they really fall flat compared to other options. I can't think of many situations where I'd want to run a Tauros over Great Tusk or something, except - wait for it - beating Chien-Pao! And just think of some of the other jank options people have brought up here. Focus Sash Will-o-Wisp/Memento, max HP/Def Azumarill, putting in Volcarona and praying the 30% chance on Flame Body procs...
As for the margin of cost, let's consider something about Tera. If Pao goes Tera Dark and starts spamming Crunch or Sucker Punch with impunity, what is the opportunity cost? Well, they can't Tera something else later and there's a little less surprise factor if they'll use an Ice or coverage move later. Otherwise, not much, since especially with a Band or even without it Pao can blow through a lot of its checks and muscle them out. Dark is resisted only by three types, which in OU realistically means Great Tusk/Kingambit/Hatterene/Ting-Lu are the only common options that can take that hit and do something in return after Pao is locked in, so the only thing the Pao player "loses" is that eventually you will do something that forces them to stop spamming Dark STAB mindlessly. And what do you lose if you have to burn your Tera to resist Chien-Pao? Every other potential application. Pao gets a nuclear warhead it can wave around with impunity until it goes down and the game resumes with you having a hole blown in your team, and you disarm your own bomb to make Pao's a bit weaker. Even if Pao goes down after you Tera to stop it and doesn't wreak additional havoc, you have lost more than your opponent did.
That's the issue, for me at least. Chien-Pao forces its opponent into situations where it does a ton of work for very minimal setup, and no matter what the cost is always heavily skewed in Pao's favor.
Why do people keep parroting this argument?? Like, I saw it the first time and it was fine because it was just one guy’s personal take, but people keep agreeing with it??? Have y’all never been around for the beginning of a gen before? Since around gen 6, it’s always been the situation where a ton of offensive brokemons come out of the woodwork at the beginning of each generation and have to be dealt with in turn. Usually the worst offenders end up holding back the less obviously broken mons until later, or at least make them seem healthy in comparison, but over time they all end up getting weeded out one by one. That’s just how tiering goes, one suspect at a time. I was actually pretty sure Chien-Pao was going to get gone even before Chi-Yu, simply because of the speed difference making it a more obvious threat to faster playstyles, but I also thought ape would stay OU so I’m clearly not perfect with my guesses. Anyway, Chien-Pao is really the only ‘premier offensive threat’ left to deal with in all honesty, unless you wanna say the HO cheese ostrich is gonna be leading the tier after Chien is gone. Other than suspecting that and salt man, I think we’re pretty much good until home drops, so I just don’t see how this argument pans out if you start trying to actually explain your thought process instead of just throwing out eyecatching phrases and empty fist-shaking. Has anyone seriously asked for an Iron Valiant suspect in the last few weeks? How about Roaring Moon or Dragonite? People seem to be fine with those mons as they are right now, so I’m really not sure what this rhetoric is talking about, other than being baseless fearmongering in order to get a few more people on the side of keeping Mega Weavile legal.
With this suspect concluding in a few days and the metagame evolving rapidly, we are conducting a new tiering survey to decide what will follow this suspect test: https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/sv-ou-tiering-surveys.3711911/#post-9499511
Please respond when possible, thank you!
Please respond when possible, thank you!
Stealth Rocks: I am about to end this guy's whole career,
I dunno if they manually calculated or not, but absolutely should. Otherwise a mon getting used more often woukd lean it towards a 50% winrate. If every player used a given mon, that would lead to a 50% winrate. So a decreased winrate could also be just because a mon gets used more.
Edit to also add in: once we add in that factor: tourney stats in general once we add that in are way too small a portion of played games that statistically they are insignificant. There is way too volatile a variation in number of times used for winrate in tournaments for it to be a valid metric imo. Im not qualified to vote in any way,I am terrible, but i refuse to allow doctored statistics to get in the way of anything.
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I fucking hate when People treat stall as objectively bad. No matter how annoying it can be (which is very annoying) to fight, defensive playstyles are important for a healthy meta. Not every team needs to be about hyper offense hell. I don't care how much you hate Chansey. Chien-Pao needs to fucking go. If anything, I would've prefered a bulkier meta where even offensive teams have some longevity.
Is this conclusion not putting the cart before the horse?
That is, I read your take as "Chien is not broken because people are now prepared for it", but should this not be "people are now overly prepared for Chien, because it has shown itself to be broken"?
In other words, your analysis of week 2/3 after Chien's week 1 performance does not capture the restrictions to subsequent team building and adjustments made specifically for Chien. That is the definition of centralisation.
Not only that, but SPL players teambuild taking in consideration the opponent they're facing, in order to have a good match up against that specific opponent. In Tournaments, especially SPL, you're very likely to know or at least have an idea of who you're battling with, and you'll therefore prepare accordingly. If I know I'm facing X opponent that usually plays stall, I'm not gonna be using a balanced team that loses to it, but rather I'd take my chances and prepare with wallbreakers or sub-sweepers. The same logic can be applied for any other situation.
This means that SPL is nothing like laddering on Showdown, and this analysis is flawed from the start. It doesn't really matter what happens in SPL, cause it's not a true reflection of the average meta.
It’s not really that linear and SPL tends to be a good case study on specific things once you attain a large sample. Sure, there is some counter-styling that goes on, but preparation — especially earlier in a generation like this — is seldom outright countering specific teams or styles and people tend to try and cover as much as they can.
Obviously SPL is not the be all end all, but it’s very much a reflection of the metagame at a high level.
Stall?
BAD [vine boom]*
Besides, even tho I gave up on reqs, I do support a Chien Pao ban, in fact, I believe he is as broken as Flutter mane and way more than Chi Yu and Ape, I have said this since day one, I fucking hate this mon and I cannot wait for it to go
Yeah I kinda over generalised, but I still believe that using SPL as a metric to say "Pao is balanced because Tournament players are prepared for it" is an inherently flawed logic. As McGrrr said, expecting and therefore preparing for an omnipresent threat is a direct result of centralization, and doesn't justify the brokenness of that mon. This is the same "Dracovish is checked by Water Absorb and itself, so you can play around it" kind of reasoning, and it's idiotic.
smogon loves stall!!!!!!!
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okay but fr, smogon loves bulky offense is the truth
which makes sense, since bulky offense metas are generally preferred by top players and most ladder players alike
We're all part of the conspiracy, it's true. I can't believe they figured out we were double agents. Paoheads stay woke.
For real, I don't get the argument of "We can't ban the best offense mon every time". You've gotta put into perspective how good that offense is. If Pao is the best offense sweeper in the tier, the best stallbreaker in the tier, and has the potential to be so immediately threatening that its checks can't risk checking it until after you see the set, that feels a tad overcentralizing to me.
It's a line of thought that worked a lot better in other gens, to be fair. We really are systematically removing the top meta threats, it's just that after removing Flutter Mane, Iron Bundle, Palafin, Chi-Yu, and Annihilape, the next-best attacker has
*checks*
A 170-ish ATK, 135 Speed monster with a good stab combination, great priority, and Sacred Sword for some reason.
Gen 9 be wildin', y'all. And it's not like NatDex is handling these threats any better, either!
bro just ban Chien pao the fact i gotta sacrifice my Volcarona and hope my Wisp dragapult cripples it ain't healthy for the game on top of i gotta deal with chien paos with ting lu doing hazard whirlwind or the chien paos carrying indeedee teams it's just not healthy for the game ...i was all joking for chien pao is balance just burn or waste your tera to counter it but naw it ain't it i had fun with the mon these past months and winning reverse sweep matches with it but the fact i gotta focus so much to counter it just aint right i'm too low for reqs because i meme alot but if i was up there BAN
I will never be able to make the reqs but I will still display my opinion.
Anything that could be said has already been said.
Chein-Pao is a super fast wallbreaker that is incredibly difficult to deal with. It OHKOS at worst and 3HKOS at best with its CB set; its SD set does 3 million damage after a +2 boost. It outspeeds almost everything and the only (viable) thing that does outspeed it (dragapult) fricking dies to shard or sucker.
"But priority"
It has priority of its own, and if it needs to it can swap out and rip holes in your team later.
"broken checks broken"
If we need to sus test Ghold or Garg later, so be it, banning chein won't make stall super ultra uber op
"tauros paleda aqua/blaze"
bro these 2 mons are literal ass and are in uu and ru for a reason, while they may """""check""""" chein, chein can swap out; the tauros brothers also get abused by hazards and have no reliable recovery. What else do they do besides swap into chein once or twice before getting killed?
And if this wasn't enough, if you somehow manage to swap in safely and are about to kill this goofy ice cat, an unlucky flinch from an icicle crash or a defense drop from crunch could mean game over.
With a staggering 170 base attack, blinding speed, and practically perfect coverage (screw azumarill, it's not doing anything either), it is an uber-tier mon that should join its sister Chi-yu in Ubers.
Anything that could be said has already been said.
Chein-Pao is a super fast wallbreaker that is incredibly difficult to deal with. It OHKOS at worst and 3HKOS at best with its CB set; its SD set does 3 million damage after a +2 boost. It outspeeds almost everything and the only (viable) thing that does outspeed it (dragapult) fricking dies to shard or sucker.
"But priority"
It has priority of its own, and if it needs to it can swap out and rip holes in your team later.
"broken checks broken"
If we need to sus test Ghold or Garg later, so be it, banning chein won't make stall super ultra uber op
"tauros paleda aqua/blaze"
bro these 2 mons are literal ass and are in uu and ru for a reason, while they may """""check""""" chein, chein can swap out; the tauros brothers also get abused by hazards and have no reliable recovery. What else do they do besides swap into chein once or twice before getting killed?
And if this wasn't enough, if you somehow manage to swap in safely and are about to kill this goofy ice cat, an unlucky flinch from an icicle crash or a defense drop from crunch could mean game over.
With a staggering 170 base attack, blinding speed, and practically perfect coverage (screw azumarill, it's not doing anything either), it is an uber-tier mon that should join its sister Chi-yu in Ubers.
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