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Official MLB 2012 Season Thread
- Thread starter tennisace
- Start date
Watch out Barry Bonds. Captian Morgan is comming for you.
So, is anyone taking the O's for real now? After two wins against the Rays, and a chance to sweep today, I think this team is legit, and it'll prob last longer than the Pirates did a year ago. Yea, I know the AL East is a tough division, but at the very least they could win one of the two wild cards. So, thoughts anyone?
*ExW-L and ExWP are derived from Bill James' Pythagorean theorem of baseball: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]). This formula was designed to relate a team's runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record.
That's the pythagorean win-loss for baseball. It's not a great statistic, but is much better than W-L itself. As such, let's take a look at the O's, where there RS-RA gives them a 19-15 record. They're playing over their head, and while not playing badly, are getting lucky with their sequencing of hits and runs allowed that's allowed them to win a greater number of games than expected.
Baseball is a game about luck, and mediocre-average teams can sometimes get lucky for even a year at a time. But it is much more likely, that even after this fast start that the Orioles finish just under to at .500 than it is they make the last playoff spot. That's just the nature of the game. Their hitting lineup isn't bad, but their pitching is pitching way over their heads... Hammel is someone with #4, #5 potential that people are now heralding as an ace because of some good luck. Remember Jair Jurrjens? What's he up to now?
This isn't to say that they can't make the playoffs at all. But if they do, it's not because they've got the current talent to have that kind of expected result. Some years you just get lucky.
That's the pythagorean win-loss for baseball. It's not a great statistic, but is much better than W-L itself. As such, let's take a look at the O's, where there RS-RA gives them a 19-15 record. They're playing over their head, and while not playing badly, are getting lucky with their sequencing of hits and runs allowed that's allowed them to win a greater number of games than expected.
Baseball is a game about luck, and mediocre-average teams can sometimes get lucky for even a year at a time. But it is much more likely, that even after this fast start that the Orioles finish just under to at .500 than it is they make the last playoff spot. That's just the nature of the game. Their hitting lineup isn't bad, but their pitching is pitching way over their heads... Hammel is someone with #4, #5 potential that people are now heralding as an ace because of some good luck. Remember Jair Jurrjens? What's he up to now?
This isn't to say that they can't make the playoffs at all. But if they do, it's not because they've got the current talent to have that kind of expected result. Some years you just get lucky.
aamto
on whom the three Fates smile
you realize, of course, that Yankee payrolls didn't start ramping up until the early part of the 2000s. after the Yankees "dynasty." they've won exactly 1 WS since. and 9 different teams have won the WS since 2000. but that just doesn't fit your narrative, does it?
MLB has more parity than any other sport. just because half the league (literally, 16 teams) is eligible for the playoffs does not make the NBA or NHL systems any better despite having a salary cap. i would even say the salary cap is irrelevant in football because of the dearth of long term contracts -- what is the average career span of any non-star in the NFL?
to reiterate again (because the only contributions you make to this thread are whining about how much the Reds are disadvantaged because of payrolls and big bad Yankees), a salary cap does not magically generate revenue for the small market teams. just because NYY cannot spend money, that doesn't magically give Oakland the ability to sign a premier FA. poor teams are poor teams (rather, ownership that doesn't want to spend will remain ownership that doesn't want to spend. all of these guys are billionaires, you know). so how about you propose an actual fix for the inequalities rather than just whine about salary caps?
4 > 3. But yeah I've always liked Votto, that was an impressive display!
What an awful inning of baseball that was. It was obvious that Rodriguez was gonna blow the save. He had no control whatsoever, the announcers were blaming it on the shitty conditions because of the rain but I think the guy is just streaky, yet they wouldnt put anyone else in. And then he walks the bases loaded to bring up Votto who is 3/4 with 2HR and a double and I know the game is over. Flores made a really nice stop on a ball Rodriguez did his best to throw to the backstop and I thought maybe they'd get lucky and Votto would pop out. But nope.
Joey Votto is apparently also good at the game of baseball. It's too bad the Reds weren't down by three runs, would've made it all the more epic. It was already two outs, two strikes but I mean a long single would've been enough... not that I'm complaining. \m/
Are you so daft to believe that a salary cap would mean absolutely nothing to league balance? I'm not saying certain owners don't necessarily underspend in order to line their pockets but I'm guessing not every single one of them can afford the Yankees' $200 million payroll either. To use your example, maybe Oakland does have the ability (money) to sign a premier FA player... but oh, the Yankees simply offered them more. Well alright, maybe they'll get this other guy... nope, the Yankees bought him up too. If there's a salary cap in place that forces the Yankees to pick and choose their offers more carefully, maybe Oakland actually signs at least one of these two hypothetical players and would be more competitive as a result. I can't believe I actually have to fucking explain this shit.
The players association would cause a shitstorm at the prospect of a salary cap anyway. It's probably not happening anytime soon, though with a cap would also come a floor and the overall amount of money going to players would probably not change much; it would just not disproportionally come from the top few teams.
But thanks for playing. Don't worry, you'll still leave with this lovely parting gift: fuck you.Mr.E itt said:
Are you so daft to believe that a salary cap would mean absolutely nothing to league balance? I'm not saying certain owners don't necessarily underspend in order to line their pockets but I'm guessing not every single one of them can afford the Yankees' $200 million payroll either. To use your example, maybe Oakland does have the ability (money) to sign a premier FA player... but oh, the Yankees simply offered them more. Well alright, maybe they'll get this other guy... nope, the Yankees bought him up too. If there's a salary cap in place that forces the Yankees to pick and choose their offers more carefully, maybe Oakland actually signs at least one of these two hypothetical players and would be more competitive as a result. I can't believe I actually have to fucking explain this shit.
The players association would cause a shitstorm at the prospect of a salary cap anyway. It's probably not happening anytime soon, though with a cap would also come a floor and the overall amount of money going to players would probably not change much; it would just not disproportionally come from the top few teams.
This is one of the most asinine and baseless arguments I've ever seen. NO ONE in baseball wants a salary cap. Period. The players don't want it because it'd cut their salaries, the big market teams don't want it because it'd cut their ability to spend THEIR OWN MONEY how they want, and the small market teams don't want it because the Luxury Tax which subsidizes them would vanish. I'm not going to minimize the advantage of playing in a large market and having more revenue to draw from, but the fact is a majority of the smaller market teams have the capability to spend more, and do not.
The salary cap in the NFL and NBA does nothing to increase the parity of those leagues. You have the same teams going to the playoffs and winning the championship in those leagues, moreso than in baseball. Let's look at the NFL, where there is a strict salary cap:
10 Most recent Super Bowl winners: New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And the NBA: Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers.
Compare to the MLB: St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Florida Marlins, Anaheim Angels.
Seems like a bit more parity, no?
Furthermore your use of the Yankees in your examples shows that you're just laying baseless claims in line with popular opinion of those who dislike the Yankees. The Yankees' biggest signing this past offseason was Hiroki Kuroda at $10 mil. The year before that they signed Derek Jeter, Rafael Soriano,and Mariano Rivera to $51 million, $35 million and $30 million dollar deals respectively. But aside from Soriano, these were the organization's own players not some star FA from another team. In 2009 their biggest free agent was Andy Pettite, signed to an $11.75 million dollar deal and again their own player. You have to go back to 2008 when they signed Mark Texeira and CC Sabathia as the last time the Yankees truly 'muscled out' the rest of the league by their overspending.
I think the thing that Mr. E most understated is the importance of management. Big spending allows teams to take more risks, but it really is up to the team to have it pan out. Let's look at the payrolls from last year, shall we?
I count 3 playoff team! In the next ten, there are 3 more. And the next ten, two more.
Big spending can get you to the playoffs once if you just splurge, and are lucky. But it's pretty obvious that management is what drives the teams to become consistent winners.
Code:
Team Payroll Average
N.Y. Yankees $201,689,030 $6,722,968
Philadelphia 172,976,381 5,765,879
Boston 161,407,476 5,978,055
Los Angeles Angels 138,998,524 4,483,823
Chicago White Sox 129,285,539 4,788,353
Chicago Cubs 125,480,664 5,228,361
New York Mets 120,147,310 4,290,975
San Francisco 118,216,333 4,378,383
Minnesota 112,737,000 4,509,480
Detroit 105,705,232 3,915,009Big spending can get you to the playoffs once if you just splurge, and are lucky. But it's pretty obvious that management is what drives the teams to become consistent winners.
1) They're the biggest spenders. That doesn't mean they're the only big spenders. Just because the Ever Grande Bigs are the biggest users does not mean there are not other big users.
2) They're the ones who have won a disproportionate amount of the league's championships. That's the only context in which I specifically named them in the first place, I just used them in my previous post because aamto is apparently a disgruntled Yankees bandwagoner who took a general stab at a no-cap league as a personal attack against his team.
I wish I could just get DM to come in here and ban you people for being complete morons. Maybe next we can discuss how instant replay has no place in baseball. MLB, so much more progressive than the other major sports leagues...
The Pirates, despite having the worst offense I have seen in a long time, at 17-18. This seriously blows my mind that they are almost .500 with such a shitty offense. It's amazing.
They were above .500 and in serious contention for the weak NL Central title last year until they shit all over themselves through August. ;[ The Orioles are close to being the best team in baseball right now and they weren't expecting a whole lot more than the Pirates, I'd say they're a much bigger surprise so far.
I'm not going to continue this "debate" as you're presenting mostly opinions and not facts. I just wish you'd refrain from being this much of a pompous ass, stooping to stupid name calling and professing a desire to get us "morons" banned. Grow up, bro.
In any event, Matt Kemp landed on the DL which, unless he comes back right when eligible firing out of the gates, should put an end to his 50/50 campaign. Who on the Dodgers do you guys think will pick up the slack besides Ethier?
To be honest, I don't think anyone can. The Dodgers just aren't good. Kershaw and Kemp bring them so much, and to lose either one of them, even for a second, hurts...
I hate instant replay. It has frankly no place in baseball at all.
I'd very much welcome the introduction of more instant replay. You're never going to outright get rid of umpires, so why not have a system in place to ensure close calls are right 100% of the time? If you do it right, it takes minimal effort and will be barely noticed for the amount of times it'll come up in a game.
aamto
on whom the three Fates smile
it's like you have this bet with yourself to enter a topic and discuss things you have no knowledge about. you look like, sound like, and act like an ignorant fool; please quit while you are this far behind.
once again you ignore the fact that 23/25 of the Yankees championships came before they started to dwarf other team payrolls. again, you ignore the fact that MLB has seen 9 different winners of the WS in 11 years. you ignore the list of poorly managed, high payroll teams that have languished below .500 for years. in fact, you present no argument whatsoever other than opinions and draw erroneous conclusions.
the most amusing part of your post is calling me, a diehard Mets fan, a Yankees bandwagoner. please do not post in this thread if you're just going to post ignorant flame bait.
on the topic of instant replay, it boggles my mind how MLB is so slow to adopt it. all they need is a guy in a booth with the replays available to him. it would tack on an extra ~20 seconds to close plays and result in the proper call every time. i don't even understand how people can say this is bad thing for baseball. hell, if it were up to me, everything would be automated, especially balls and strikes (which is by far the biggest impact an umpire has on the game). there is simply no excuse for baseball not advancing to the 21st century and using video technology to make the proper calls.
Speaking of proper calls, gonna do a little BLUE JAYS BIASED fan rant. Brettzilla came out in the ninth today, and the umpire made a pretty terrible strike call. I'm pretty sure the only reason he made the call is because Lawrie was walking towards first base before the call was made, but I'll link the Kzone.. yikes.. the fifth pitch was the 3-1 count that made Brettzilla appear.
It's a single pitch. Shame but that's how baseball works sometimes sadly!Speaking of proper calls, gonna do a little BLUE JAYS BIASED fan rant. Brettzilla came out in the ninth today, and the umpire made a pretty terrible strike call. I'm pretty sure the only reason he made the call is because Lawrie was walking towards first base before the call was made, but I'll link the Kzone.. yikes.. the fifth pitch was the 3-1 count that made Brettzilla appear.