What is your ceiling then?
And jesus, take your smug attitude out. I said that he wasn't likely to, but you instantly jump down my throat because I still give him a chance?
It's a faint belief, and that faint belief exists for everyone. What's even more ignorant is instantly throwing away potential, no matter how faint potential "left", to the side so instantly. It amazes me that you still argue so vehemently like that potential seizes to exists instantly.
I'll admit entirely that you and I seemed to even be focused on different things, but I completely ignored physical maturity and went for a more technical and skill based view of Stewart, something that was entirely false. Until a point of physical maturity is reached, when the body is no longer developing, one cannot say that ceiling is stagnant. But from that point until the point when the body deteriorates, the ceiling and the floor for the player remain pretty much fixed, something that you seem to disagree with.
Let's use Stewart as an example. Drafted out of college, he's already gone through his physical development. Based on his talent, I don't see how we can argue that his ceiling isn't constant throughout, as well as his floor. These are the talents he has, and this is the maximum or minimum that he can do. Younger prospects have the extra time to develop and make adjustments. I can't see how you argue that this changes their ceiling. It simply increases the likelihood of a positive outcome. With more time to make adjustments and develop technically, you are more likely to reach your ceiling.
I didn't say that age didn't matter. Saying that would be ignorant. You completely ignored my words when I said that age affected the probability of them reaching their ceiling. Once they've reached their physical peak, it's up to the technical aspect to grow along with it. And yeah, the longer it takes for them to get that together, the less likely it is. But it's still possible, up until their points where their natural abilities deteriorate.
Because determining a player's ceiling isn't an exact science. It's an educated guess on what a player could become based on his (for pitchers anyway, since that's what we're talking about here) stuff, delivery, command, control, pitch sequencing, approach RELATIVE TO AGE AND EXPERIENCE LEVEL. It honestly seems like you didn't read my post. Young players (25 isn't young for someone who hasn't figured anything out) who don't show a certain skill or lack polish can be excused because they haven't had time to hone their skills, but that no longer applies for a 25 year old like Stewart. Your suggestion implies that everyone has super star ceiling, which isn't true, because that's not what ceiling is. It's a guess based on skill set and it's an assumption if players improve on their flaws. That's why looking at ceiling only is foolish because that's not what happens. Not only that, but since it's a guess, you don't know if players even have it in them to improve, and Stewart has shown zero improvement over the years. He's been with three organizations now and has gotten to work with a world class pitching coach in Don Cooper. It has nothing to do with declining (and again, pitchers peak early. Besides, Stewart was sitting in the low 90's when he was younger, and now he's upper 80's), it is a matter of progression and your polish based on how old you are. Ceiling DOES regress. It's not just based on characteristics. To be perfectly honest you just don't know what you're talking about here. You don't know what ceiling refers to, and you don't know the basic progression trends of prospects. And don't take that personally. I'm really not trying to demean you as a human being.







