Probabilities of Hax

The probability of being unable to attack is .5 + (.5)(.25) = .625 The .5 is the chance of being confused, where (.5)(.25) is the chance of not being confused but being paralyzed.

These didn't really "open my eyes" because I take statistics, but hopefully some people will realize what "luck" really is.
 
I never did the math, but it looks like I was very justified in using CB gyarados as a "skarm counter" in the past, as the only thing needed to win one on one is a hax event, either to get the KO (crit) or stop them from roosting to get the KO next turn (flinch).

As for AP statistis, I highly recomend it to anyone who has classes to fill and has already taken AP calculus; it is extremely easy (compared to the alternatives), yet still counts as an AP class.

Better then parafusion would be paraflinch.
Vs. body slam/iron head jirachi (chance to be unable to attack):
1: 0.7 (70%)
2. 0.49 (49%)
....same as for focus blast hitting.

And chance to be able to attack after x turns:
1: .3 (30%)
2: .51 (51%)
3: 0.657 (65.7%)
4: 0.7599 (75.99%)

Not very high; after four turns their is still almost a 25% chance that you still can't hit your opponent.
Can "almost 25%" be called "hax"?

(chance to be able to attack):
1: 0.3 (30%)
2: 0.09 (9%)
3: 0.027 (2.7%)
4: 0.081 (0.81%)
Don't get your hopes on being able to attack very often consecutively.

Really, this isn't difficult to do (and Tangerine explained well); as this isn't located conveniently so it can be seen (if anyone wants a reference it would be best if everything was concentrated, such as in Tangerine's post), I really don't see the point to going on, as one could simply do anything of itnerest.
 
SoT said:
Well...from my own experience bitching about hax, and bitching about hax when it matters is two differently own things. I mean if they get a crit or something that's unnecessary then sure it sucks but whatever, if they get it and it's like game changing then I don't see why you don't have a "legitimate" reason to get pissed off. Probably just cause I'm the one usually on the recieving end. ;)
Click to expand...

This is more or less how I feel about it. Just like anyone else I get annoyed when someone complains about hax when it doesn't matter, but when it does I feel that anyone has the right to get a little upset. I cannot count the amount of times in the last few weeks of UU battling that I've switched into a Blizzard only to have it freeze, crit, or both. Sometimes it doesn't matter, but when I lose a key pokemon such as Hariyama early, and then have to confront a team which carries either Blizzard or fire attacks on every pokemon without him, it's upsetting.

Someone earlier mentioned Greek stubbornness. Maybe that's it. My family calls it being 'passionate', though, and that sounds a lot better, right?
 
This is very true. I for instance would not call getting one CH hax, it's just luck that might happen at the worse of times.

But what I do call hax is when ch, paras, and flinches that happen several times in a match. Like for instance, on shoddy my friend and I had a match where he paralyzed four of my pokes with t-bolt and there was around 10 ch in the game.(yes I said 10)
 
Curiously, in the somewhat small number of matches I've played in UU, about 4 of them have had about 8 critical hits in them. Of course, generally they were when they didn't matter like my Marowak Fire Punching Venusaur or what not. But a few of them did count. Just happens to be the luck of the draw, I guess. But since it is luck, I don't get angry because of them :), maybe frustrated a tiny bit, but nowhere near angry.
 
I am always the first to explain to people that hax is part of the game. Sure it is really annoying when it happens to you, but that is pokemon. Pokemon is a luck-containing game.

Nice thread TAY, also I was just wondering...is there a maximum amount of turns a pokemon can be asleep for? On a related note I have seen people saying that a 1 turn sleep is "hax".
 
You guys would be amazed how resourceful our site is

http://www.smogon.com/dp/articles/status#sleep

Sleep lasts 1-4 turns.

---

This is a good reference TAY for those who don't have the math knowledge to figure this out, hopefully this will help some other players understand just how common (or uncommon depending on your perspective) luck is in Pokemon.
 
I thought that you could just wake up as soon as you were put to sleep (hence it would be 0 turns), but I may be mistaken.
 
There is a 25% chance of a frozen Pokémon thawing out each time it makes a move.
Click to expand...
Again taken from the Smogon site. So it is possible to be frozen for the entire game, but it is also possible to be frozen for 0 turns. I believe that you can also be unfrozen if you switch the frozen Pokemon into a Fire attack, but that is hardly a reliable method of healing. That's why Freeze is the most annoying status in the game, you just don't know!

I do think that people tend to "only notice the bad things," as you do get people who always moan about their hax, how they're the unlucky ones. Regardless of the actual probabilities, if will even out in the long run, so I try to cherish the good hax that I get whilst I can ^_^ (and by that I don't mean rub it in my opponants face ._.)
 
This thread was very insightful. Its' easy to see how a player that simply thinks turn to turn could blame a loss on "hax", but if you look at it from the perspective of multiple turns you see "hax" isn't just a probability, it's practically a sure thing.
 
This is cool. I hate it when the opponent gets so angry because you got one hax after they've been switching 50 times.
 
panamaxis said:
I thought that you could just wake up as soon as you were put to sleep (hence it would be 0 turns), but I may be mistaken.
Click to expand...

I believe that is only the case with Early Bird Pokemon.
 
Please stop whining when Blissey freezes you with Ice Beam after it has used Ice Beam for 6 consecutive times.

(Probability = 73.79% with Serene Grace, 46.86% without.)
 
This is the confirmation of the obvious. TBH, I don't think I ever defeated a hax/stall team without them complaining about hax... Maybe now people will realize that spamming recover/softboled on 40% damage attack is stupid...
 
I usually don´t complain when someone crits/freezes a pokemon. But it´s really annoying when your opponent says "It didn´t matter anyway", considering I didn´t complain in the first place. And it´s even more annoying when it did matter.
 
these are handy, my first team cound take advantage of hax to 6-0 a game.
i have had some terrible hax against (0.02% chance of some happening) but usualy something in favour (i always freeze celebis...)
stall teams will eventually get haxed, just on the chance of something happening.
 
Wow. This is a very useful post. Your analogy of CMing a T-bolt is very good. With every turn you don't get flinched, you increase the chances of getting flinched. I think this might be useful for people making stall teams to take into consideration. Basically, who ever can get their boosts without waiting turns to get haxed, can lessen the chances of getting haxed. In some cases, quite significantly!
 
With every turn you don't get flinched, you increase the chances of getting flinched.
Click to expand...
If you're not talking about each turn, then just ignore this :)
If you are talking about the individual turn, then it sounds really strange to me because you actually don't increase the chance of getting flinched. It always stays the same chance. I can hit an opponent 100 times with Stone Edge, not critting him once, and the next time I use it, it still has the same chance to crit. The only thing that these calcs prove is that this is highly unlikely (nobody has to calculate this) that this happens, and that you'll be very unlucky. Note that this is what I think of it, and it may be completely wrong, but that's my opinion on this.

Thanks for the calcs TAY, some were pretty suprising.
 
yes like coin flips, flip 4 coins and 2 land on heads, its not 100% next tails is it?, it is still 50%,
but as turns go, you will get one eventually hence stalling is not always good
 
I also realized Recover/Softboiled spamming is a very very very poor way of getting this done because of this. Which is why Celebi trying to recover spam Ice Fang Gyara can be very dangerous, or Blissey trying to recover spam a non STABed Brick Break (like one from Salamence).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top