Survivor Smogon Survivor: The Official (Started! Join server to spectate)

At the last performance review, HeuryAlone was voted out of Engineering. He joins Zoa on redemption island.

CASE COMPETITION
Challenge 14​

Create a real, actionable business plan that requires an initial investment of size fewer than $1M USD. The tribe that creates the most practical and profitable business plan, as judged by myself and possibly others, will win immunity. The other two tribes will be sent to performance management.

Your plan must be presented in a Google Slides, with a Google Sheets as a supporting document for cashflow. Your submission must include:
  • Pitch
    • Go to market strategy
    • Timeline
    • Risks and dependencies
    • Breakdown of upfront expenditures/T0 investments
  • Market research
    • Market sizing, market strategy
  • Projected cashflow and breakeven analysis (Done in Sheets or Excel)
    • Revenue and costs, broken down into line items
Appreciated but not necessary: Mockup/proof of concept, competitive advantage, risk mitigation strategies and fallback plans, time to breakeven and return

This is not a fantasy writing project. I am not interested in your aspirations or your personal stories, or in your powerpoint artistry. Plans will be judged holistically on the basis of "Would this make money"

You have until tomorrow 5PM PST to submit a business plan. At the conclusion of this 24 hours, I and other judges will review your documents. Following our review, we will have a number of questions for you. We ask that you submit a single representative that is available in a 20 minute block from 6PM PST-7PM PST so that I can ask them questions. Questions will likely relate mostly to method behind estimates in your cashflow projections, which should be rigorously justified and supported with evidence. Following that, we will announce the winning plan. The two losing tribes will attend performance review.

I will be looking at the top 5 items (up to and including EBITDA) in the sample DCF provided below. There is no need to bother with any items below EBITDA. If you have questions on how this sheet works, let me know but it should be pretty simple if you start on the first line and work your way down. Your Revenues section and your COGS section SHOULD be broken down into line items.

To be clear: You must delineate clearly how much $ investment you are seeking, and what kind of capital expenditures you would purchase at time 0. Those costs should not be factored into the cash flow. Cost of Goods Sold refers to variable costs of producing a single item (this would be mainly inventory. For example, for a clothing factory, include costs for materials but do not include costs for machines. The cost to buy the machine should be listed somewhere else, not in cash flow)

1600040967928.png
 
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Thanks everyone for participating, it’s clear that significant effort went into both of the business proposals.

I think the pros of the simulation company are mainly that it provides an underserved (unserved?) need in the ability to practice real time in certain driving situations that you wouldn’t find on the road, or even in schools due to the risk involved. It’s not clear to me that consumers and soccer moms are the right clientele for this, as it seems like their needs might be more basic and sufficiently addressed through a regular defensive driving school. The simulation technology is going to be something that’s more useful for professionals which would make this a better B2B model, but unfortunately that’s not the way that it was pitched. Secondly, as I pointed out to the Finance team, there are two ways that this proposals can go. One is where you develop the software as proprietary tech, in which case it’s an asset and licensable to other businesses (military, games) and the initial investment is really paying for the development of the software. I thought that this would have made more sense as a business model because my estimate of how many consumers would actually use this product is on par with what the Finance team guessed (which is very low). The second direction, which is the one Finance decided to take, was one where the business would license the technology and lease the equipment from third parties, which contributes to cogs and runs significantly more risk as you would then be essentially a reseller with low margins and no proprietary assets. The estimates on cost would have been more or less on point, which would’ve resulted in a EBITDA of $5-10K and would not be scalable to a sufficiently substantial scale to sustain a business. Ultimately, while the Finance team brought up a very interesting niche to invest in, the strategy on how to best exploit that niche I think wasn’t justified by evidence, and the financials on the sheet weren’t attractive enough. What Finance did very well on was describing their business, making clear who their partners would be and what stakeholders would be involved, as well as what their risks are in this space. There was a very solid story on what was being marketed, to whom, and the population that would be served.

For Marketing, the pros of a high end dog sitting business in downtown is that it replaces dog walkers for young professionals, who might be spending $15 a day on someone to enter their apt (security/privacy) and walk their dog for a half hour (low engagement/value). They chose a city well suited to the concept and scouted out competitors well. In addition, their business model was well thought out and had line items for their different services, and clearly detailed line items that made it clear where their projected profit would be coming from. I think that the marketing team did very poorly on describing their idea on paper (in the original deck I looked at, there was no description of what a “dog hotel” was, and the phrase was not mentioned after the title slide) and in describing the value proposition and their intended audience. Moreover, I think that their financials look great because they’re assuming a much higher willingness to pay than what I would expect their clientele to have. As I mentioned in call, if they’re targeting repeat customers who work in the vicinity of the dog sitter, in order for customers to accept this value proposal they would likely have to sell a subscription model, which changes the financials completely. I don’t think there was enough thinking done on the behavior of a customer who would purchase their product, and what they might expect in terms of amenities and bells and whistles. While these details don’t impact the basic pitch or the financials significantly, they help give a picture of the kind of branding and marketing that would go on for a business of this type.

The two tribes had very distinct strengths which made this competition difficult to judge. While Finance had a good story and was effective in communicating their proposal, Marketing was able to back up their story with strong financials and a clear understanding of where their profits would come from. The tribe names here have displayed a good bit of irony! Ultimately, due to a stronger business proposal, I would like to choose tribe Marketing as the winner of this immunity challenge. Thanks for participating!


My comments:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TZYVs_KIJ7wEboQt27HJAkwQFGz-hABqcz6y26VOcZs/edit?usp=sharing

Finance:
https://docs.google.com/presentatio...KUNEVgvFkpUNx0/edit#slide=id.g55730c8ce3_1_15
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...WeSfz4Yt4KO0PoXifT4npiTPA/edit#gid=1643017614

Marketing:
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1trR2vwhtpwOTD4v6gpJGtP2_1E4ggfe2cBcnH3WYwlg/edit#slide=id.p
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10GQms8y8gIY-mKsSPtWmR9GWQgH4sGAdHVZckvEdskM/edit?usp=sharing
 
At the last series of performance reviews, DJ and Gallium were voted out. They will join zoa on redemption island.

READY, SET, GO!
Challenge 15​

https://setwithfriends.com/

Playing with people in your tribe only, finish a game of Set as fast as possible. Screenshot the final time.

1600215004350.png


You may use solvers (which probably won’t be relevant if you have a competitive time), but you may not use AHK or brute force methods. Only 8 players from each tribe may participate in the submission.

The tribe with the fastest time wins immunity, while the other two tribes attend tribal council.
 
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At the last series of performance reviews, Sid and Bluedoom were eliminated.

THREAD NECROMANCY
Challenge 16​

In your tribe chat, enter "claim" to claim points.

Points are equal to the difference in seconds between the current time and the last time a tribe claimed, less 300. Points claimed can be negative. Claims will be public in #challenge-16.

Use "scorecheck" to look at current scores.

The tribe with the single highest cumulative score will win immunity. The other two will attend tribal council.

There will be a different game (i.e. times are not affected across games) on redemption island. Use bot commands in your confessional instead. The player on redemption island with the highest score will live to play another day.
 
At the last series of performance reviews, Spiderz and Sky were voted out. They join Zoa on redemption island.

KING OF THE HILL
Challenge 17​

You will be competing today for individual immunity.

Each player owns 100 indivisible armies. There are 13 castles, numbered 1-13, with each castle worth that amount of points (castle 13 is worth 13 points).

Each player privately submits a division of your 100 armies to those 13 castles.

After everyone submits, I will run a program that creates each possible pair of players in the game that do not share a tribe. Each pair will then fight, and points will be awarded.

Suppose A and B fight. If A assigned more troops to castle 1 then B did, then A wins 1 point. If they tie, no points are awarded. Similarly, if A assigned more troops to castle 2 then B did, then A wins 2 points. And so on, until castle 13 is adjudicated.

After matchups has concluded, the player from each tribe with the highest score will win individual immunity. Following that, all three tribes will attend tribal council.

You may collaborate on this challenge with your tribemates, though keep in mind you will not be battling them.
 
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Zoa has won the redemption island challenge. He will now return to the game.

Welcome to fake merge.

PARING DOWN
Challenge 18​


You have 24 hours to submit one player in your confessional who you would like to pair up with, ending tomorrow 5PM PST. If that person submits you as well at the end of the 24 hour period, then you will have paired up and will advance for sure into the next phase of the game. Pairs will be processed at deadline ONLY.

If you remain pairless at deadline tomorrow, then you will have 14 hours to submit one player in your confessional who you would like to pair up with. Pairs again will be processed at deadline (day after tomorrow 7AM PST) ONLY.

If there remain pairless players after this, then they have 12 hours (ending day after tomorrow 7PM PST) to pair up publicly with another player in a public submissions channel. This time, requests will be processed instantly.

While it is our intent to eliminate only one player in this challenge, all unpaired players after the final phase will be eliminated from the game, and we will adjust the schedule of this game accordingly.

Choose carefully!

At the conclusion of this challenge, you will be split into two different tribes. The division will be random: however, pairs will not be on the same tribe.
 
Trace has not found a partner. He has been eliminated from the game.

OKCUPID
Challenge 19​

Both tribes will attend tribal council. You are competing for individual immunity.

You have been placed on a different tribe than the person you partnered up with. Now, it's time to see who knows their partner best. Please answer the following questions in your confessionals. The pair who gives the same answers to the most questions will win immunity on their individual tribes. Ties will be broken by time of submission.

Here are the questions:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hK2AFAC1bLoWpOI1FvpqfkpKVt8OxbiuvA_p0zC3hME/edit?usp=sharing

Please answer in any way that collates your answers in a way that's easy for us to review.
 
Your efforts have been recognized. A higher up has requested you specifically to join their team. Your new manager is frustrated with one other team's attempts at foiling every good idea he's ever had, and you're just the person to deal with it. You've done well to get this far, considering where you started from. But the new people on your team are just a capable as you. You even recognize a pesky few from prior projects. It's time to demonstrate your leadership skills, and show that you, more than anyone else, belong in the C-suite.

Business Tribe:
TheyCallMeJoshua,
eli,
joe_durk,
in the hills,
Liridium,
Ayia,
RAD,
Blakers,
Andy Snype,
DuckDuckPwn.

Legal Tribe:
Waffles,
Jalmont,
Combee,
charlie,
superstarsrock,
Outlaw.Star,
VigilanteVigoroth,
Clouds,
Drookez,
zoa
 
Your efforts have been recognized. A higher up has requested you specifically to join their team. Your new manager is frustrated with one other team's attempts at foiling every good idea he's ever had, and you're just the person to deal with it. You've done well to get this far, considering where you started from. But the new people on your team are just a capable as you. You even recognize a pesky few from prior projects. It's time to demonstrate your leadership skills, and show that you, more than anyone else, belong in the C-suite.

Business Tribe:
TheyCallMeJoshua,
eli,
joe_durk,
in the hills,
Liridium,
Ayia,
RAD,
Blakers,
Andy Snype,
DuckDuckPwn.

Legal Tribe:
Waffles,
Jalmont,
Combee,
charlie,
superstarsrock,
Outlaw.Star,
VigilanteVigoroth,
Clouds,
Drookez,
zoa
Ooooh daddy the C-suite
 
In the last series of performance reviews, Liridium and Combee were voted out.

COMMON HOUSEHOLD ITEMS SCAVENGER HUNT
Challenge 20​

For the first challenge, you will be collecting items on a list for us. Take a picture and send it in your tribe submission. We are not interested in printouts of things you found googling: we want the real deal!

Benchmarks:
Full points: the real deal
0.5 less than full points: Really, really close to the real deal (for example, something from Obama's 2012 campaign would get 1.5/2 points for an item that's memorabilia from Obama's 2008 campaign).
0.5 points: Not close to the real deal. However, this is an attempt that isn't shitty (for example, a photoshopped acceptance letter from Riverside Community College gets 0.5/5 points)
0 points: Shitty attempts (for example, a printout of Mark Cuban sandwiched between two buns gets 0 points for being a Cuban Sandwich)

We'll be using our discretion and judgment to award partial points.

We have a total of 138 items. We will release items in waves. Wave 1, the hardest items, can be found below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ve40D42Be-_MV3_o2m_BaNSymQYb3exbPZ_uNA2ER78/edit?usp=sharing
 

Ampharos

tag walls, punch fascists
is a Community Contributor
Hi! Administrator on Mafia Universe here :)

In no way was the item "an infraction on Mafia Universe" cleared with me in advance; I will not be giving these out even jokingly, and I must strongly request that players not DM me or any MU staff member; quite frankly, it'd be a waste of all of our times.

Furthermore, I'd like to mention that I DM'd hal about this trying to get it taken down privately, and he decided to be a dick about it. So I've decided to raise a stink instead of letting it go. Sorry!
 
Hi! Administrator on Mafia Universe here :)

In no way was the item "an infraction on Mafia Universe" cleared with me in advance; I will not be giving these out even jokingly, and I must strongly request that players not DM me or any MU staff member; quite frankly, it'd be a waste of all of our times.

Furthermore, I'd like to mention that I DM'd hal about this trying to get it taken down privately, and he decided to be a dick about it. So I've decided to raise a stink instead of letting it go. Sorry!
This kind of overreaction to the smallest of inconveniences (wah wah 2 people have DM’d me something so I’m going to whine) is more or less why your site came to mind when I was thinking about frivolous infractions
 
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