I have had this same idea since the last rating was released. But mostly I feel this:
I don't know... I just can't see how something Latias can be so close to UU. Zapdos. Celebi? MEW?
BL needs to be a tier...
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Smogon University PO Statistics — May 2011
- Thread starter Rising_Dusk
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I have had this same idea since the last rating was released. But mostly I feel this:
I don't know... I just can't see how something Latias can be so close to UU. Zapdos. Celebi? MEW?
BL needs to be a tier...
BL is a ban list, and the people that are playing UU are working on what goes in there (if anything) at the moment.
Thanks for the stats. :)
Oh, please. Whimsicott is terrible and is only ever effective at the bottom of the ladder.
Rising_Dusk, is it too much to request of you to throw out the data from those ranked under 1100? Really, many of these players use uncompetitive teams that skew the statistics. You have my theoretical thanks for answering this question.
Whimsicott in 52nd is a surprise to me. It's a rather meh kinda pokemon and I'm still surprised it's in OU. MUCH better off in UU where things are a bit stally and he can easily shut stall down with encore, and proceed to subseed, he just has to watch for common grass pokemon in that tier. but he can switch out with U-turn, or even paralyze them with stun spore.
It's a shame Whimsicott is still used enough in OU...
It's a shame Whimsicott is still used enough in OU...
Your probability calculations are wrong. Since, by your calculations, 45.6717% of teams are weather teams (the actual number of teams probably being lowered due to guys running Tyranitar and Hippowdon together, or people running Tyranitar because it's good), this means the probability of two people with weather teams getting matched up is 20.8590% (AKA .456717*.456717*100). On the flipside, the chances of a battle between two non-weather teams is 29.5156% [(1-.456717)*(1-.456717)*100]. Lastly, the chance of a battle between a weather and a non-weather team is the remainder, 49.6253% [.456717*(1-.456717)*100*2]. The two is there in the calculations because the matchup could either be your weather team against another's non-weather team or vice-versa.
Because the two percentages are so close to fifty-fifty, I'll explain this through the analogy of flipping a coint twice. The possible combinations are HH, HT, TH, and TT. Therefore, the probability of a two heads or two tails is 25% (you have a one in two chance of each flip coming up heads or tails, so the percentage chance of a particular combination is .5*.5*100). The probobility of getting one head and one tail, however, is 50% because, while the chance of getting either HT or TH is the same as getting HH or TT, the former two are both essentially the same while the latter two are not. Thus, the 25% for HT and TH are added together to give the 50% chance of getting one head and one tails.
This may seem counterintuitive since you are either using a weather or non-weather team. Your opponent will be a weather team 45.6717% of the time and a non-weather team 54.3283%. Thus, if you are running a weather team, it seems like half of all games are weather wars and half are just you with your weather. In contrast, if you are running a non-weather team, it seems like half of all games have no weather and half are just your opponent with your weather.
This does mean that slightly more than 70% of matches involve weather in some form. However, if you don't want to fight battles involving weather, don't run a weather team. Approximately 55% of your matches won't involve weather if you do this.
Does anyone think it might be too early for this? UU is still a very volatile metagame, and with no doubt there will be a ton of bans coming in the near future, changing it up, which will effect LU/RU/NU/whatever its called. With such a continuously changing and incredibly unstable metagame will suspect testing even be possible, or worthwhile? I think it would probably be better to wait for UU to settle down a bit, at whatever time that may be, and then implement it.
I agree with this. It is too soon to form NU.
Thanks for this.
Is the summation of all of the chances for respective weather inducers to be found on a team correct? Does it take into account the fact that almost no teams will run both Tyranitar and Abomasnow, for instance, or any combination of weather inducers other than Hippowdon and Tyranitar for that matter.
Raikaria, are you lying or did you honestly mess up when doing the math?
Let's say that weather has 50% usage (for the sake of simplicity, although it's actually less). This means that any given team has a 1/2 chance of being a weather team, and a 1/2 chance of not being one.
There are two teams in a match. Now then, let's say that Team 1 is weather and Team 2 is not. This has a 25% chance of happening (simple multiplication). Let's say that Team 1 is non-weather and Team 2 is weather. This also has a 25% chance of happening (the same multiplication as before). Now, let's say that Team 1 and Team 2 are weather teams. This has a 25% chance of happening. This means that, on average, weather will be in 75% of battles, not 80%.
And, as we just showed, there is a 25% chance of both teams being weather. Which means that there will be a weather war that much, not 60% of the time. You hugely over-exaggerated that.
Not to mention what you said, about same-weather battles. And that weather is a little less than 50%, so my multiplication gives higher numbers than what would really happen.
It's fine to hate on weather, but the way percentages and fractions work will not change because of your hate.
Edit: melvni corrected you first, darn it. ninja'ed by an hour
Latios does Specs/Scarf and Dual Screens better, but Latias is the superior choice at everything else, IMO. It's really about what you want to do with it.Raikaria said:
Also, lol @ "CM Latias not being good". It's awesome, it just needs a good team helping it.
Yes, Swampert is a tank. But in order to tank (especially given that it has no recovery at all), it has to run all its EVs into its defensive stats and HP. To be frank, a completely un-invested, un-boosted attack isn't going to hurt anything with a little bulk very badly. The attack boost is nice, but Swampert can't "dish out damage) to anything bulky, which is very common this Gen (and please don't tell me you want examples of that). And if you want an offensive Water-type, you're probably better of with Rotom-W or Gyarados, to be honest.Raikaria said:
I won't deny that Swampert has its uses, but I fail to see how they prevent Swampert from being out-classed in either an offensive or defensive role (well, not quite out-classed, but very, very close to it).
By the way, Gyara, Rotom-W, and Quaggy also have their weaknesses covered perfectly by Ferrothorn. j/s
hey thanks again for the monthly stats! :)
I do think some Pokemon just aren't getting the love they deserve. There are some really legit pokemon that people just aren't using, such as Wobbuffet and Smearge to name a few.
I do think some Pokemon just aren't getting the love they deserve. There are some really legit pokemon that people just aren't using, such as Wobbuffet and Smearge to name a few.
mew's problem is being a jack of all trades master of none, a job mew can do is normally done better by another Pokemon. But that dose not explain his very low usage, he is still a beast in the right hands.
Mew > Smeargle as a Baton Passer. It gets every move Smeargle gets bar Spore, but can actually take a hit after Rocks.
See the word normally, it's highlighted in bold. There are some things mew is better baton pass being the main thing arguably. But there are so many sets many other Pokemon do better.
Please note, things like that in future
I'd just like to say that adding the percentages of the five weather starters is not an accurate way of gauging how much weather is in the metagame, for the following reasons:
- First, simply adding them does not take into account teams using more than weather starter (Tyranitar/Hippowdon sand teams, or the gimmicky Politoed/Ninetales rain/sun teams, etc).
- Second, it does not take into account usage of Unnerve Tyranitar, Sand Force Hippowdon, Water Absorb Politoed, Flash Fire Ninetales and Soundproof Abomasnow. But seriously, who uses those? Nonetheless, If these are used then this makes Rai's assumption more inaccurate.
- Third, it does not take into account weather teams that do not use weather starters. This is relevant for teams using Rain Dance so that theyt could still use Swift Swim.
The probability of a "weather war", where both teams have a weather starter, is 20.8590%
Just saying, but only Water Absorb Politoed and Flash Fire Ninetales are legal in OU, the rest are unreleased. But truth be told, Politoed and Ninetales are pretty bad without Drizzle/Drought. Ninetales is terribly outclassed by a shitton of Pokemon like Heatran and Arcanine, Politoed is just meh. Both shot to fame because of Drizzle and Drought.
At least Tyranitar has the perk of being a fine Pokemon on its own
I'm not sure how many people used Hippowdon for the sake of using Hippowdon, though.
I got fairly close to the top using it. It serves more as a check against Excadrill though seeing how it's 2HKOed by unpopped Balloon variants with a SD thrown in. LO variants are oddly countered, and I'm not sure why. Maybe because I don't have to hit it with Ice Fang and waste a turn popping the Balloon?
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