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The Everything NFL Thread - 2013-2014 Edition

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its a shame the texans took this long to get a second wr for johnson, it would have been nice for them to have hopkins in 2010/11 instead of finding random white guys to throw to from the te and fb positions

and yea killah id say the chiefs are #2, although i can see a case for the pats if if they win tonight and amendola and gronk return soon [like the next 2 weeks].

maybe cinci shows up next week though, could be argued that it's a 'must-win' for them so that they dont fall into the pits of mediocrity
 
afc best of the best
---
broncos

afc solid teams
---


afc good enough to make the playoffs
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texans
colts
patriots
dolphins
chiefs
titans
chargers

afc overrated or subpar
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ravens
bengals
browns
jets
bills

afc really really bad
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steelers
raiders
jaguars

two unlucky teams on the good enough to make the playoffs won't be making it this year because the afc north has to send some pathetic team so my guess is the chargers choke it away somehow even tho i totally called p.rivers still being good last season, and one of the titans/dolphins/chiefs.

i wont even bother pretending to give insight to the nfc, i havent watched enough on sunday ticket to effectively put the teams where they should go. if i had to guess id say the lions look strong offensively, the eagles and the cowboys are mediocre(AVERAGE) altho the eagles lack of defense will kill them. 49ers and seahawks look pretty good. saints are pretty good, i dont really believe in the falcons though. right now if i had to guess playoffs would be packers/lions or bears/saints/49ers/seahawks/cowboys
 
Seriously, you guys have to stop giving the AFC West credit for beating the NFC East. Jesus man the Chiefs are average(can make the playoffs). Their offense isn't good at all. These guys have been beating garbage teams and even in those games their offense has looked horrible. Charles turning into a demon in the 4th Q is the only reason their offense can do anything. And while it may become the norm for the season but the Broncos will blow these guys out. Definitley the 10-6 team that reverts to 5-11 the next season.

The Chargers are bad. Rivers is dangerous.
 
Killah said:
on the other side, if you gameplan Julio out, Ryan will have to pretty much carry the game himself. in the end, it'll come down to red zone conversions more than anything (both teams are bottom 10 in the NFL with >50% this year in TDs/appearance, compared to last year when they were both top 10).
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New England: 2/3 Red zone TDs with one field goal, 2 field goals near the red zone (20-35 ish) with 1 long TD

Atlanta: 1/5 Red zone TDs with two field goals, 1 TD right outside red zone (21 yard line), one field goal near red zone


There's your difference right there! At least it was close in the end.
 
a display of coaching ineptitude there, atlanta actually just lost themselves the game when they kicked the fg when it was 4th and 1 in the redzone and down by 10.

it took a lot of luck to not lose outright there, but nonetheless, it cost them the game anyway
 
kd24 said:
a display of coaching ineptitude there, atlanta actually just lost themselves the game when they kicked the fg when it was 4th and 1 in the redzone and down by 10.

it took a lot of luck to not lose outright there, but nonetheless, it cost them the game anyway
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No, that was definitely not where this game was lost. Certainly a touchdown would have changed the dynamics of the game considerably, but a failed 4th down conversion would have ended the game outright. 3rd/4th and shorts are not easy to make (just ask the Patriots!), and Atlanta's been rather bad at them the last couple of years anyway. Kicking a field goal was the best decision right there.

You could argue that they shouldn't have tried an onside kick immediately afterwards, though. Belichick wouldn't have dreamed about trying to sneak it on 4th down on his own 30... r-right?
 
It's funny because Matt Ryan reminds me of 2012 Romo... Who reminds me of 2011 Eli. Romo has looked average so far. The falcons being crap all of a sudden is turning ryan into romo. Where every game he has to win the game for his team and the last 5+ minutes of the game is him struggling and squirming for late tds. Ryan isnt as exciting yet, because i really dont care whether he wins or loses. Romo last year was edge of your seat action mainly because i wanted the defense to get to him and at the last second made an amazing play. I was rooting against him hard but won me over.


Del Rio said:
The Pats are easily #2 in the AFC once Amendola and Gronk get healthy and it isn't close.
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14-2 and imo better than the broncos. My opinion might change if when miller comes back he is as good as he was last year. Because having a player that good(literally the best pass rusher in the game and not even close) would make an impact big enough to put the broncos ahead of the pats. Miller was also really good against the run so yeah he might turn the tables. I've said it a couple times but near the end of the season patriots will be the best team in the league. 2012 miller in this broncos team might be better.
 
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Del Rio said:
The Pats are easily #2 in the AFC once Amendola and Gronk get healthy and it isn't close.
Click to expand...

who else is above them besides denver right now? texans got blown out by baltimore and then lost at home to the seahawks. baltimore got blown out by denver and lost to the bills. i guess the chiefs are 4-0 but you can't conclusively argue that they're "better" since they beat 4 mediocre-to-bad teams. the dolphins could be in this argument if they beat the saints tomorrow night. the colts lost to the dolphins but beat the niners, and the titans lost to the texans in ot and beat 3 bad teams.

also can we appreciate the magic that is :mad: BRIAN HOYER :mad:
 
The thing that puts Denver over the top is their historically godly offense. Not only do they have an unstoppable air raid, but they have a running game to keep things balanced. Their defense is suspect with the suspension and the key injuries, but if they get those players back and have some semblance of their 2012 performance, they will have a solid pass rush and an elite offense. It's rare, if ever, that I say this about a certain team, but the Broncos are almost a lock for the Super Bowl. I don't see Peyton choking in the postseason again.
 
Killah said:
No, that was definitely not where this game was lost. Certainly a touchdown would have changed the dynamics of the game considerably, but a failed 4th down conversion would have ended the game outright. 3rd/4th and shorts are not easy to make (just ask the Patriots!), and Atlanta's been rather bad at them the last couple of years anyway. Kicking a field goal was the best decision right there.

You could argue that they shouldn't have tried an onside kick immediately afterwards, though. Belichick wouldn't have dreamed about trying to sneak it on 4th down on his own 30... r-right?
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this is actually just incorrect, there's a ton of reasons why but ill just try to summarize

1.) for it to be worth it the falcons need to have less of a chance of converting 4th and 1 than the chance of scoring a touchdown on the following possession. scoring tds isn't easy, im sure someone not as lazy as me will check football outsiders but the falcons chances there heavily favor going for it, because kicking a fg in the nfl is easy mode

2.) if the falcons kick a fg, the pats only need a fg to just win the game. if the falcons go for the touchdown there (and go for it on 4th and 1), the pats need a touchdown to flatout win the game

3.) even if the pats don't score, like i said before, the falcons have to score that td anyway, why would you not want the chance to do it so close to the redzone, when that's basically as good as it gets for scoring touchdowns

statistically and logically its the only correct move there, but its just a sign of a coach who hasn't dedicated time to thinking these scenarios out. mike smith is no stranger to this, hes usually a solid coach but he seems to mess up these situations at an alarming rate

furthermore, your "3rd/4th and shorts arent easy to make, ask the patriots" quip is not only irrelevant but kind of dumb, as the patriots did convert 3rd and 1, the refs just clearly blew the spot. even the announcers noted this. fumbles are a fluke, 9/10 times brady converts 4th and inches so yes, id say they are easy to make. in fact, someone should find pats on 4th and 1 as theyre actually one of the best at it but w/e
 
to add onto kd's post brady made a 3rd and 1 in the first half too but it got called back on an illegal shift penalty
 
kd24 said:
furthermore, your "3rd/4th and shorts arent easy to make, ask the patriots" quip is not only irrelevant but kind of dumb, as the patriots did convert 3rd and 1, the refs just clearly blew the spot. even the announcers noted this. fumbles are a fluke, 9/10 times brady converts 4th and inches so yes, id say they are easy to make. in fact, someone should find pats on 4th and 1 as theyre actually one of the best at it but w/e
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it was a joke, hehe. so was the next line, if anyone caught the reference.

your first point is incorrect. if they go for it and miss, the game is essentially over. not sure how much it's changed recently, but the conversion rate of a 4th-and-1 from a couple years ago inside the ten was a shade under 70%. that means a 30% chance the game is over right then! add to that, they had only a ~70% chance of scoring a TD if they did make the 1st down (I forget the exact yard line they were on, it was something like the 5) comes to ~50% chance of scoring a TD on the possession, 30% chance of straight up failure, and 20% chance of another 4th down attempt that they'd either make or fail. yes, a 50% chance of a TD technically comes to more "net expected points" (3.5+ vs 3) than kicking, but it doesn't take into account the situation itself.

and then, you have to take into account the odds on the ensuing drive of the team scoring a TD vs the odds of the team scoring a field goal. I can't find any reliable data for it, but essentially you take the 50% chance of scoring that TD times the x% chance of scoring a field goal or a TD on the next drive, vs the % chance of kicking a field goal there (probably >95%) times the % chance of scoring a TD on the next drive. this page suggests that the odds would then be about an 18% (.5*chance of score at 60 yards) chance of winning vs about a 20% (.95*chance for TD at 60 yards) chance of winning, but the graph doesn't look right to me so take from it what you will.

your 2nd point basically doesn't matter; the Patriots basically win with one first down (if they had gotten the 3rd down then gotten 0 yardage, Falcons would have had about a minute left after a Pats punt/missed FG/something) and certainly do with two. a field goal might have ended the game, but the game also would have ended on much less.

of course, a TD would have changed the dynamics of the game a lot; the Falcons would have kicked it deep probably, and the Patriots would likely have been more aggressive in their playcalling (how do you get more aggressive than 4th and 1? you know what I mean, haha)

it's a borderline call that's easy to look at in hindsight and say it was wrong, but you could say that about several things tonight. as you pointed out, Smith seems to make these kinds of errors fairly often, but I don't think kicking there was a mistake.

CaptKirby said:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html

in general in theory you should always go for it on 4th and 1 just about anywhere on the field...situationally you might have reasons not to, but in this case if it was indeed a 4th and 1 the falcons kicked the fg on, then they needed to go for it - you have to absolutely assume the next chance you get is just going to be worse
Click to expand...

since you posted it while I was typing this up, a 4th and 1 from the 5-ish yardline is indeed about 3.5 expected points. while theoretically it makes it seem like the right move is to go for it, I've already explained why it might not be. if you know of any page that has expected chance at FG or TD percentage based on field position though, that'd be great.
 
Killah, expected points from a FG was listed under the same study I just linked; it maxes out at about 2.3 according to this, which I mean I guess remember is probably factoring in something about opponent expected points if you fail the fg try (just like expected points should be factoring opponent success in if you fail a 4th and x try).
 
Bill Barnwell said:
As this game turned out, I think it's pretty clear Smith made the wrong call, since the fourth-and-1 he passed on was much easier to convert than the fourth-and-7 he was stuck trying later.
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It was the wrong call because the Falcons lost the game, not because it was the wrong call. Hindsight is 20/20!

This kind of article only works when the outcome of the call does not work. Barnwell gets paid to second guess coaches, and with the benefit of hindsight on top of it. I've already explained, in great detail, how it is likely that kicking on 4th and 1 gives a higher chance to tie the game; the only thing I didn't go into was the chance of two touchdowns for the straight up win.

I love Barnwell, and he's not wrong that going for a first down there is a good option. It's just, he's wrong in that it's the only option. Almost everything he typed is with the benefit of hindsight. Of course they'd rather go for a 4th and 1 than a 4th and 7! Of course, they'd probably have rather scored on the 1st and 10, 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10... you know.
 
If anything, Bill Barnwell in a lot of ways is paid to repeat things that TMQ has been touting for the last 5 years, and that all sorts of advanced ideas tout as well. TMQ has been harping for years that the next time out will be 4th and 7 instead of 4th and 1 or 4th and 2, and that at that point it will be too late. This is absolutely 100% factually not hindsight in this case, it just happens to be the absolutely most probable outcome given the time constraints and the difficulty of (game long) achieving red zone results in the NFL.
 
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