The Elway / Brees debate
So I've basically spent 14 hours on telephone/in person arguing with my brother (33 years old) about the careers of Drew Brees vs John Elway. I know a lot of people here consider Brees the greatest of all time (or in the top 5) or maybe they just feel John Elway was an overrated Quarterback. I'm just going to throw every thing about Elway I can because context matters a lot. This is mostly the consensus me and my brother came to, take it for what it's worth, but I hope it says something to you.
So first - statistics:
I love statistics. They usually make or break an argument but statistics can easily be flawed. To be clear, DVOA helps measure which teams can beat which other teams. But using it as proof of something is flawed (see this ranking of defensive DVOA (yeah there are some...misplacements to say the least):
or this ranking of 2013 WRs (the guys throwing the ball don't matter apparently):
)
Turn to PFF - a site that prides itself on studying every play and you'll find they feel Keuchly is far from being DPoY this season or that they feel Stafford was the 4th best QB of this season or Ryan Tannehill, who was shut held to 9 points in 2 must win games vs the Bills/Jets was ranked 6th. The numbers and plays might say so - but you need to use the eye test.
PFF's Quarterback Ratings (Top 15)
1. Peyton Manning +44.3
2. Philip Rivers +25.5
3. Drew Brees +27.8
4. Matthew Stafford +16.7
5. Tom Brady +16.1
6. Ryan Tannehill +15.2
7. Josh McCown +14.3
8. Russell Wilson +14.1
9. Tony Romo +13.2
10. Aaron Rodgers +11.9
11. Ben Roethlisberger +11.6
12. Jay Cutler +10.0
13. Matt Ryan +8.2
14. Nick Foles +5.1
15. Andy Dalton +2.5
At the end of the day, then, we turn to the tangible statistics, the case against a guy like John Elway and the case for players like Drew Brees.
The flaw with these stats is we ignore context and what they mean. 30 years from now, people will begin ranking Karl Malone as the greatest basketball player of all time based on statistics without the context of who he was and why he has the stats he does.
I'm going to begin breaking down not just the stats, but the players themselves and why that context I keep talking about matters.
First, understand NFL passing changed in 2004 - The Ty Law rule completely changed how the refs called games and how defensive players played it. So most stats from the 80s and 90s are not going to impress anyone and this is particularly true in Elway's case. I'll start by showing Elway's season stats:
What surely sticks out are the 25% of seasons where Elway had more interceptions than touchdowns, along with 2 more seasons where he finished with 15 touchdowns or less. From this, even I would say Elway was a mediocre Quarterback who was carried by a team.
But let's stop and think about this. Elway's Broncos went to Super Bowls in 1986 (19/13), 87 (19/12), 89 (18/18) with him throwing 55% in those seasons. His team to 4 other playoff appearances before winning those final 2 Super Bowls, but focusing on all those playoff seasons, (let's also acknowledge in passing Elway's Broncos were a consistent threat - even the year's they didn't go were his rookie season of 4-6, a season of 11-5, a season of 8-7, a season of 5-11, a season of 8-4, a season of 7-7, and a season of 8-8. So Denver was a relevant team for 14/16 seasons basically) He had to have been carried by his team right?
Those are Elway's receivers from his first 5 playoff runs - does it begin to make sense why Elway's stats seemed mediocre?
Denver had a great defense but it begins to paint a picture when you realize Elway never played with a Pro Bowl offensive player (outside of running backs who made the Pro Bowl because players backed off of Elway and to prove it, name one of those halfbacks who "carried Elway") until Sharpe gets the nod in 1992. Ignore the stats - Elway was winning MVP in 1987. How is this possible? It's because of the story the stats don't tell - Elway was working with a coach who hated him and believed in a conservative offense that put Elway in situations where he would never put up the numbers of Joe Montana. Dan Reeves hates Elway? How could that be possible? - Maybe it has to do with the fact that Elway and OC Shanahan would script plays to start the games because Reeves style just didn't produce results. Maybe it has to do with the fact that Elway had an attitude problem. But it was clear and it's not like it's a hidden subject:
http://www.realclearsports.com/lists/coach_killers/john_elway_dan_reeves.html
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/1998/playoffs/news/1999/01/24/superbowl_feud/
http://juneauempire.com/stories/012499/Spo_past.shtml
Excerpt taken from above article:
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I highly suggest reading those articles - with Shanahan - a coach everyone loves to say is garbage, Elway was thriving: what does that say about Reeves? So Elway was not in a west coast offense like Montana or like many of the Quarterbacks of today. He wasn't running a playbook that consisted of using short passes as runs. The Reeves playbook was Run, Run, Pass on 3rd and long. That's just how it was. And Elway carried teams where literally Vance Johnson was the best receiver on the team to multiple AFC titles.
It's almost amazing to me that Elway is hated on so much - statistics punish him for having bad teammates. Regrettably I've done this and have ignored just how excellent guys like Elway and Roethlisberger have played in their careers. They are consistently punished for having solid defenses without great talent around them offensively. As a Ravens fan, how many times have I seen Big Ben escape 3 sacks and extend a play for a 1st down on a third down? Probably 100 times too many. Now imagine Elway doing this, except when he fires that missile down the field, Vance Johnson or god forbid Ricky Nattiel is under it and they drop it. Give Elway Jerry Rice or Roger Craig, give him Andre Reed, give him Michael Irvin, etc along with a coach like Walsh and then put him in a west coast offense and tell me that Elway drags those guys down. He went to 3 super bowls with these guys! Fun Fact about Dan Marino, people don't like to mention he played with what was considered the best WR duo in Clayton/Duper for his best years. Let's give Elway them and see how he does.
Elway took the best of a bad situation - a conservative coach who wanted to sit on his defense and just run run run and he won them multiple AFC titles. Elway was doing this in AFC championship games:
So we laugh at his completion percentage but is it not easier to build your percentage up in the west coast offenses of today where you use the short pass as a run? Is there an idea that Elway couldn't do this? He pleaded with Reeves to run it and Reeves decided not to! Yes, I imagine throwing on 3rd and long is much harder to do than on 2nd and 3. That's just how it is. There was definitely no one tougher than Elway and I feel that he isn't credited enough for that.
This is how physical the game was - ignoring that he played in an offense where he wasn't in a favorable situation, trying to attribute cold statistics to a game where passing and how players played were so radically different to today (do you think people were fined for hits like that throughout the NFL's history?). I realize I'm using an old clip to prove my point (and there was a flag), but that is just how the players were and it required a different type of stamina. It's not something measured in completion percentage or YPA but it's a factor we ignore because history doesn't look at it.
But it doesn't excuse Elway compared to the other greats of his era right? Well let's look more carefully. Establishing Reeves as an Elway hater (need more proof?
) who hated his own QB enough that he wouldn't let him run the offense and forced him into a conservative approach, he was fired after 92 so let's look at 93 onwards, when Denver finally looked to support Elway with talent and let Denver run an offense:
1993 Denver Passing
(3rd in completion%, 3rd in TDs)
1994 Denver Passing
(6th in completion%, 18th in TDs)
1995 Denver Passing
(11th in completion%, 8th in TDs)
1996 Denver Passing
(4th in completion%, 5th in Passing TDs)
(18th in completion%, 4th in Passing TDs)
(5th in completion%, 5th in Passing TDs)
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If you're not clear on why 96-98 lists team offense, it's because Denver was quite frankly the best offensive team those 3 years thanks to finally acquiring talent to surround Elway with. They were top 5 in passing TDs all 3 of those years despite the fact that TD had
13, 15, and then 21 RUSHING touchdowns. So can the myth end now about Elway being a middle of the road Quarterback compared to his peers? Out of his prime, 35+ years old and the guy was leading the best offense in the NFL with an insane amount of points and Passing TDs. I ask again, can we give this guy Jerry Rice and see what he does?
Instead of looking at just the numbers, ask yourself these questions:
Why was Elway chosen as the 1st Team QB of the 1990s Hall of Fame All Decade Team?
Why was Elway consistently ranked as the toughest and the best by his peers, why did he go to 9 Pro Bowls?
Why was he the 1987 MVP despite not having the best numbers?
We ignore context of who he played with instead of looking at how every single person who watched this era and was a part of this era talks about how unbelievable Elway was. If Elway was carried by his teammates, why are they not making Pro Bowls? Why do we believe his coaches to be jokes? Why can't we even name 1 teammate he had until Sharpe?
I'm not sure what more to add, he played for a coach who hated him, tried to trade him, even drafted Tommy Maddox in the 1st round rather than give Elway some type of offensive talent to work with. Is this even a question? Elway was undeniably one of the top 5 quarterbacks of all time who was hindered only by the players surrounding him. What Quarterback did more with less? Why is Elway not just top 5 but number 1 on so many top 10 lists if his numbers say otherwise (
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/lists/top-10-qbs-all-time#photo-title=John+Elway&photo=10893561) doesn't that say something?
Here's the problem with Drew Brees - He has only made the playoffs 6/13 seasons where he has mostly worked with an offensive genius as his coach in Sean Payton (acknowledged by pretty much everyone to be a top 5 coach in the NFL, Brees led the league in interceptions last year with Payton suspended). He was working with talent like Joe Horn and Colston and Bush, and now talent like Jimmy Graham and Pierre "Lead all RBs in receptions" Thomas. He got to work with constant MVP LT and one of the all time great Tight Ends in Antonio Gates in San Diego. He has had a who's who of good-great offensive players to work with. So why do we credit him for touchdowns thrown and for his completion percentage? We've seen him without Payton - 1 playoff appearance out of 5 "I'm the starter" seasons.
But more importantly, we see the Saints style of offense - they prefer to use the passing game as a running game, not only inflating his completion percentage, but actively using the red zone as a way for Brees to pass it in. Elway's Broncos RAN the ball in all the time, why is he punished for not putting up the ridiculous passing touchdown stats of Brees simply because the Saints offense allows him to score more from close range rather than settling into a running game.
As far as Brees in the playoffs, when he gets there he is good, but is there really an excuse for his performances? We criticize Elway based on super bowls and ignore his divisional stats and conference title stats. Apparently they meant nothing and I think it's harsh we criticize Manning for constantly making the playoffs and losing, wake me up when Brees starts constantly making the playoffs (this is why I have Manning above Elway on my QB list, the consistency of Manning is unheard of and he's been in a pretty shitty situation, look at Colts the following year of Manning's injury, or the games with Rahim Moore...seems like he was working with one of the worst casts as well) - Brees has been to 1 Super Bowl in 13 seasons, and furthermore he's lost against the mighty 7-9 Seahawks, blown out by the Grossman Bears 39-14, the Alex Smith led 49ers, and lost to the Jets at home. If the Vikings aren't screwed out of a game they completely should've won, do we look at Brees differently? Is he not just another QB who couldn't win when it mattered? It seems that way with how he's looked. It took him 13 seasons to get his first road playoff win - next week @ Seattle will be very telling of his legacy. I personally root for him because I think he's an excellent Quarterback, without a doubt in the top 10 Quarterbacks of all time ... but to place him above Elway is ludicrous, a guy who did more with less when you put it in the context of the era. The fact that the Chargers decided to let Brees go and have Rivers says a lot, and Rivers ended up putting comparable stats to Brees to 2008 - Brees offense got more ludicrous while Rivers suffered, but I just don't know how we can say Brees is the best of all time.
So yes, please tell me how the Ty Law Rules, enforced following the 2003 season, didn't directly impact Bree's legacy as a Quarterback. I made a big mistake saying he was the 3rd best of all time because I don't think I really believed it and after having this discussion with my brother, my dad, and reading any article I could find about Elway, Reeves, Brees, etc. I just don't see how anyone can consider Brees better - Elway has done so much more than Brees. Voters can get it wrong, but I don't think they are when they say Elway is the 1st team QB of the 90s ... they looked past the statistics and for once, I think you have to.