Let's start breaking the gamestate down:
Prophylaxis: best town
Asek: Has posted only a couple of times thus far. Starts off by RVSing Walrein and then not much of content until we get to his first catchup post. Now, one thing that I'm keeping in mind with Asek is that he is fairly good at making his catch-up posts look townie as scum? When he replaced into Bard's College I really liked his catchup posts but I ended up copping him because he was an experienced player and I always cop experienced players. So I feel like to reliably sort him I want to actually interact with him real-time to get a better sense of how he plays.
Looking at his catch up post people are right in that they don't really give a sense of where he is at reads-wise and he has pretty... surface-level reactions to posts, which.. is throwing me in for kind of a loop because I /know/ scum!Asek is capable of posting walls that look good.
Asek said:
Why do you think my "I will be easier to read as the game progresses" post is indicative of a mafia mindset?
Asek said:
lol that u vote yeti for this but not knights whos posts are all gas. i get ur supposedly tr'ing that slot but i see no reason to do so at this point
Knights struggled similarly in the last game producing reads as town; it kind of makes me wonder why you're not taking that into account when analyzing him here. What makes you think that this is scum!Knights as opposed to town!Knights fluffing, like.. last game?
Asek said:
stop downplaying ur scum game. people who downplay their scum game are super annoying, especially when theyre getting scumread. 'teehee dont vote me silly town. i cant play scum lelele' miss me with that shit. not just @ this post but the similar ones u + others have made and i assume i will see more by the time im done.
If you don't want me to downplay my scum game, then I won't. I state it because it is a fact, but I can refrain from saying it if you think it's annoying.
Asek said:
i havent been impressed with prophylaxis response to hawkie being 'can you give reasons' (reasons are given' 'this isnt reasonable its hard to engage with you' and i dont remember them trying to push onto any alternative? its like theyre content to just trying to survive rahter then trying to push any other angle
Asek, how do you propose I would work with somebody who is scumreading me? I'm trying to engage with Hawkie because I think he's town, just horrifically wrong about what his idea on the gamestate is, and he just keeps blowing me off with "you're scum and I won't re-evaluate" (which, fair, I haven't been super engaged in this game yet).
Asek said:
- texas claims to have been pushing people in one of his posts and generating wagons but i can remember literally 0 of their wagons taking off and generating any kind of play conductive to finding scum so lol. siting on prop whilst claiming to tr them instead of pushing any kind of alternative is retarded
- Do you think scum!Texas has is ballsy enough to do the above as scum/admit it as scum? Saying that you're voting someone who you're townreading is pretty brazen, IMO?
Conclusion - I want to continue engaging with Asek but his view of the gamestate is very much different from mine and I want to iron out those incongruences. If he's scum, then something that can potentially catch him here is his refusal to take into account Knight's behavior from the other game, where.. he was similar to this and flipped town. So neutral/maybe very lightly leaning scum for now, need to engage with more.
Da Letter El: Nothing at the moment other than.. townreading Texas. Hopefully he'll get more active as the game goes on.
Empoof: Literally not a single post.
Former Hope: Leaning town at this point for a couple of reasons:
- Don't want to get too much into this, but Texas is right that FH's reaction to pressure early game makes a lot of sense from town!FH if he thinks that Texas townslipped.
- Liked his questions/observations here, feel a little more organic than scum!FH trying to fake it.
Any game I can recall of you (which have all been town? Huh) you've always chosen to take an active role and usually by proxy become the leading voice. So I'm finding it strange and unusual you relent to someone else like you are in that post
What things are you looking for? What would you expect to see if proph was scum vs if proph was town. And how do you see Wagoned proph being more readable than non wagon proph
- Really good nuance in his wall. I can track his reads progression on me from being townie early game to him catching up, me getting defensive/not responding great to Hawkie as a reason for him to notch me down, all to voting me for not really being around. (To respond to your questions, FH - spent most of last night and some of today studying, hence why I wasn't able to get into it). Really like how he's trying to analyze Hawkie as much as me and trying to weigh things in his mind and coming to a conclusion. Just really good questioning/observations from here:
Former Hope said:
Weak. KOC, what do you want to see from Proph to determine his alignment? Like, walk me through your thoughts. You would join the wagon beliving proph is scum if you saw proph doing _________ and you would defend him and refuse to lynch him because you thought proph is town because he did _________
Former Hope said:
Honestly, proph echoes something I've been observing and was going to bring up later. Yeti *has* been just super sideliny and memy despite there being plenty of things to react to. Based off of her jokes, she has in fact been reading the thread. But just why so passive. It's mind boggling. Yet, this isn't the scum yeti I can recall. Unless she shifted her game majorly, I still think yeti's largest scum tell is actively placing people into "one of these two people have to be scum" and just that level of activity or accusation hasn't happneed yet despite there being ample opportunity to do so.
Hawkie: Already stated that I think he's town. I have some slight paranoia that he's tunneling me a la Metal Sonic with Josh in the last game, but.. I don't think that Hawkie picks a fight with someone he's never played before and starts tunneling them. It's difficult for scum to forcibly tunnel others I feel because you know that you're pushing someone who is town, and you have to be a pretty skilled scum player to put yourself in that mindset. Hawkie's reads progression feels pretty natural to me from the early stages (though I think the "die scum die" mentality is a little overblown) and I respect that he tried to look at my other game to get a baseline for my play. So I think he's town, with some paranoia since.. I myself haven't played with him and don't know his scum range.
KnightsofCydonia: Already towncased him, but basically, he feels really similar to last game to me. He's been prickly and not really giving out reads but I get the sense that Bard's College was kind of an anomaly for him in terms of town play and.. I guess this is what we get for town!Knights? I can understand how he is trying to read me and I would expect him as town to be a little hesitant since he knows how I've played in previous games. Basically, the way he's approaching me feels like he doesn't know my alignment, so that's why I'm townreading him. Plus a bunch of tonal town stuff that I already went over when I towncased him.
LightWolf: Nothing so far.
Metal Sonic: So I thought I had a good baseline for reading Metal Sonic's play when I played with him in Bard's College but seeing him do really well D1 in the last rand makes me question things. Still, I haven't really gone into much of his posts, so let's do that.
He votes Texas and townreads FH. He then votes Hawkie and says that pushing on me is scummy, then he votes me.
OK, so let's stop here. My first question when we get to this point is, "would scum!Metal Sonic make a huge backtrack of his reads like this if he was scum?" - because if he's scum, then he wants to look good, and voting Hawkie for voting me, then voting me yourself.. makes you look pretty bad? My answer to this question is probably to want to check the previous game, because he spent a lot of that Day 1 looking really townie and consistent in his reads (I think? Need to double check) Which, gun to head, makes him more likely to be town?
Again I want to check his play in the previous game to make sure I'm right about this but the theory I'm running with here makes me feel like town!Metal Sonic doesn't care at all about how he's perceived because he's town, and scum!Metal Sonic is excessively careful with how he's perceived, which is why he made the really big wall post in that game with clickable links. Let's go into more of his posts:
He spends a bunch of posts telling people to vote Texas (also he mentions FH is town multiple times) and then votes Walrein. Then he immediately changes his dial to Texas being town. Again this rapid reads reversal.. is something that I feel probably doesn't come from scum!him because it just looks really bad if he's scum.
Hawkie is town
FH is town
Yeti is town
Texas is town
Proph is probably town?
Moody maybe town
Who is scum? Probably afk
Can you explain these reads please, Metal Sonic? Especially your reads progression on me.
real talk: I am actually not townreading Hawkie, I just want him to be town because it would suck if he was scum because we would then be opponents here and that sucks
I want a towncore of me/yeti/Hawkie and I’m really hoping that we got rolled town together
This post feels genuine to me?
So basically I think Metal Sonic is holding a lot of his reads close to his chest but he's been pretty aggressive with his vote and feels like he's trying to solve in his own little way, by voting people, yell that they're scum, then analyze their reactions in order to actually determine their alignment? Also he just feels like he's not caring at all about he's perceived which I like. I feel like I'm townreading everyone active though, which.. maybe means that there's someone deep somewhere but not going to be worried about that for now.
MoodyCloud: Giving some meta background here: I've played with Moody twice, in the previous rand he was town where everyone was pressuring him Day 2 and I thought "man I'm not really sure if he's scum because he's giving off some townie responses" and in Bard's College, where he was scum. In Bard's College he was super inactive and not really super solvey, he just made posts when no one was online and didn't bother to aggressively engage with people. I feel like Moody is the type of person that I can get a good read on as the game goes along but I can look at his posts right now and figure him out.
no actual scum ping so far, Proph/Hawkie slots stand out from the rest and I'm leaning towards Hawkie being town here thought his push on Knights is like going for low hanging fruit
Not sure where the tr from some people on Proph come from, had him null and willing to follow Hawkie's case
Texas leaning town from the first few pages but #188 reads like a justification to sheep Hawkie
Yeti townish ?
Knights I thought was less scummy than usual so far
Not really a fan of this post; he says he has me null but he's willing to sheep Hawkie while simultaneously calling Texas out for doing the same. Plus he's just adding another bandwagon vote on me without trying to engage with my posts or ask me questions and I dislike that. He says that one of my posts is kind of townie but.. doesn't really deliberate on it any further OR ask me anything. So yeah, I think I'm leaning scum here so far but I think I can read Moody as the game goes on since I find the differences between his town and scum game to be pretty stark.
Texas Cloverleaf: Played with him before, was town in both games I've played with him, and I don't see any reason for me to think differently in this game. I'll condense this to a couple of reasons:
- Really like his solving in the past page or two, it's clear that he's actively thinking about the gamestate and wants to get a better/more accurate read on it. I feel like if he was scum he'd post a bunch of content and then go something like "whew, content pushed out, I don't have to think about this game for a while now since it seems like it's moving slow" and.. his posts here are like the exact opposite? Also like how he's trying to reach out to Metal Sonic and actively working on solving certain slots (like Hawkie/Yeti).
- Good reads progression on me I feel? He's flip flopping between wanting to townread me and then.. scumreading me for being rather lackluster this game (I'd say I agree with that definition; between exam stuff and.. not handling the early pressure as well as I'd like to have handled it) it's clear that he's actively trying to work out my alignment, and I respect that. I feel like his read on me is more multi-dimensional than what I'd possibly expect out of scum Texas.
Hitmonleet <- Walrein: Walrein dipped out and was not active, which would normally be null for most people but.. not for Walrein I guess, after last game? I'd say that this slot has a higher chance than rand to be scum but I'll wait for Hitmonleet's posts to get the full impression.
Yeti: Another slot that I have difficulty reading, so I'm going to look at her ISO and then talk about some of her posts and try to get a decent read on her. I was scumreading her for not really giving a stance on my alignment when I was being wagoned, but she's done other things since then so let's see where I get.
Pretty NAI one-liners coming out of RVS, then asks me a questions about Knights which she missed. I'm still not really sure what to think about her just like, holding me at arms length though? Like, it's easy for her to do as scum because she doesn't have to commit to a stance, but at the same time I can see her doing it as town because she knows that I'm busy with exams + trusting that I have a sharp difference between my town meta and my scum meta + genuinely not being sure what to make of me yet. But at the same time.. why isn't she asking me more relevant questions in order to actually figure out my alignment?
homie i deuced out to go for a walk, i wasn't here to provide a stance
i dunno what to make of you yet, ppl with meta on you claim you're really easy to spot as town versus scum in a walrein way but walrein's main tell is whether he's dicking his gf and not posting or posting while dicking his gf
cash me outside if u heated i still didnt give a stance yet l0l
^ basically this
knights was the d1 mislynch in the first attempt at this game so i can see where calling him lhf comes from. he got pressured and just kinda melted down and both couldn't finish his isos or dig himself out of it and made himself look shady af.
i guess i'd be hesitant to vote him here on d1 for that reason (not that anyone is saying to rn i think)
do we still need maj........
Good nuance on voting Knights and comparing him to last game, basically what I was talking about with Asek.
i can +1 the moody read by asek and i agree that proph's treatment of hawkie's tunnel is like, "ugh can you just go away" and not really wanting to prove himself town
texas is playing by acting like if he says he'd vote a nonexistent wagon that gives him cred or something. texas can you explain more about why you were on proph when you didn't even SR him?
Fair question to Texas here.
Good nuance in posts 628-630.
Honestly, I'm still not really sure what to make of her right now. Texas is correct in that her posts don't feel like they have agenda so far - it's more of her just like offering comments on current gamestate, but outside of her push on the Walrein slot she's not really sending many strong signals at the moment, if that makes sense? I kind of just want to wait until Day 2 or 3 to get a good read on her because she played reasonably well as scum last game, and I feel that she can be solved better through how the game interacts with her rather than how she interacts with the game?
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Whew I'm done. This should be where I stand on the gamestate right now. Sorry it ended up coming pretty late, said I was catching up but got distracted by more errands.
tldr - this is where I'm at:
FH/Knights/Texas being my towncore, Hawkie and Metal Sonic being lighter townreads. If I had to pick out a deep wolf, probably Hawkie because I'm not very experienced with his meta, but I'm not too worried right now about anyone deep.
We can't really progress with DLE/Empoof/LW not posting, and the Hitmonleet slot has a fair chance of being scum if Walrein's wolf meta is as polarizing as he admits? Would like to review Hitmonleet on his own merits though.
Unvote, vote MoodyCloud
I can read him better as the game goes along but really not a fan of how he hopped onto my wagon, and I think he has the greatest chance of being the scum on my wagon.
