Serious The Politics Thread

[RaikouLover]

Im honestly shocked at how "well" RFK jr is polling. I figured he wpuld be like 5% of the vote, not a serious contender. I dont think he has a real chance of winning but it seems he could pull around 15% of the vote. I havent seen anything like that since Ive been old enough to vote. Some betting sites are giving him like 5% to win, which is not realistic, but point is he is semi viable as a 3rd party which before 2024 I would have thought impossible. Honestly I think Trump may have opened the door for similar runs in the future. Trumps shock win in 2016 I think in general has shifted the political landscape so that more obscure or fringe candidates from any background may be given more consideration now.

I looked up some of RFKs beliefs and I dont think hes great. For instance, hes business as usual with Israel and Palestine. But the fact hes not considered a complete joke by polls is interesting, could be a sign of change.

Polls are not reliable in this stage of the race, as most “casual” voters (which is 85-90% of US voters) do not even tune in to Presidential elections until Labor Day. The primaries are still going on believe it or not. We aren’t even in party conventions yet.

RFK will likely top out at 3-4% max. His polls now are because high propensity voters likely to suppprt him already have sought him out. Those numbers will fall quick as an anvil once the Democrats and Republicans ruthlessly attack his campaign and make him an unacceptable choice for casual voters. There is also the problem of ballot access in each state.

 

[Adeleine]

i agree that the 5% is functionally an overrepresentation right now but i'm pretty skeptical that the parties will be able to make him unacceptable when they swung and missed on trump there

i tepidly feel like he will just attract the same type of voters as he does now, but (assuming nothing changes from now to election day) a slightly smaller fraction because casual voters will have more solidified opinions, as you imply

 

[RaikouLover]

Biden’s got to prove to us that HE cares more about winning this election and saving American democracy than his personal fialty to Israel.

I wholeheartedly agree and are encouraged to see that democracy is taking precedency over other issues. Where I pause is the notion here that Biden has to “prove” an ideological litmus test. He’s an 81 year old white dude with a seven figure net worth and lifetime Presidential pension. That means Biden will not be the one personally screwed by a second Trump administration.

It’s rather concerning seeing all-or-nothing rhetoric from 2015-2016 resurfacing again in the face of Donald Trump… again. If we fuck around this is a losable election with consequences that are likely irreparable.

Once more Dem politicians put us at risk and it’s their own damn fault— but this time it’s not even so much the party leadership, JUST unfortunately, the candidate….

What has Biden done (or not done) that you pin him for sole responsibility?

I’ve followed the polling on issues and the results are quite interesting.

Is it Israel? While I am no fan of what Israel is doing at all (I am pro-Palestine btw) the “casual voters” in this country (many of whom will vote for Biden in November) are overwhelmingly in favor of Israel and against the student protests.

Is it the economy? Take a look at unemployment, wage growth, the stock market, the recent jobs reports…. Doesn’t matter; voters reject the data, think the economy fucking sucks and blame Biden anyway.

Is it inflation? Surely Biden created this problem…? Not the pandemic and global supply lines being mismanaged in 2020…? Inflation is down to 3% now. None of it matters; voters blame Biden for it anyway.

What is it the Biden critics expect him to do? (Legitimate question and please be specific)

 

[DerrickRose]

It’s rather concerning seeing all-or-nothing rhetoric from 2015-2016 resurfacing again in the face of Donald Trump… again. If we fuck around this is a losable election with consequences that are likely irreparable.

I feel like I'm old enough to realize this rhetoric will happen every decade on repeat with the next generation of voters. Damage been done since the last century every time.

 

[Celticpride]

Inversely I think if Joe puts his foot down and fixes this he wins in a huuuuge landslide.

This thread grossly overestimates how much the Israel/Palestine conflict matters to the average voter, even the average voter in the 18-29 age bracket. And, Biden “putting his foot down” would naturally lose some moderates, independents and more centrist voters (the protests did NOT play well well to most of the voting electorate, and even dems were split).

Biden should stop the carnage in Gaza, but for moral reasons, the electoral boost to be had there is minimal.

 

[ant4456]

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This thread grossly overestimates how much the Israel/Palestine conflict matters to the average voter, even the average voter in the 18-29 age bracket. And, Biden “putting his foot down” would naturally lose some moderates, independents and more centrist voters (the protests did NOT play well well to most of the voting electorate, and even dems were split).

Biden should stop the carnage in Gaza, but for moral reasons, the electoral boost to be had there is minimal.

This Axios dataset is flawed.

For one, the dataset found that 8% of students had participated in protests, which alone is an absurdly high number for data that is supposed to be used as a benchmark for the country's college population.

Secondly, this isn't just traditionally Democratic voters- it includes anyone of any ideology. What the Dems need to be worrying about isn't peple flipping, it's people who are usually voting Democrat stopping, especially considering how (no matter how some people like to say otherwise), the 2020 election's young voters were a big part.

And believe me, as a college student, we arwn't happy that almost none of us got the aid he was promised.

Third, as shown in the picture, only 3 issues are allowed. And one of them is education funding. While this could be argued to show a general trend, it doesn't even necessarily mean that it isn't a big deal for these polled- it could just be their 4th issue, while a lot of other people focus others. While all of these issues have both sides for each party, different topics are more important to one or the other depending on the status quo.

Conservatives that are not super religious-war-y are not likely to be focusing as much on Israel because the status quo is already in their behavior. On the other hand, the thirst for more ICE agents is never quenched, and Conservatives focus on immigration a lot.

You can make an argument that what is happening in Gaza is not a big deal in general, but for young people specifically IMO this data is not sufficient.

 

[MrHands]

And believe me, as a college student, we arwn't happy that almost none of us got the aid he was promised.

Because the Republicans shut it down. You are aware Biden didn't "change his mind" right? And despite this he still managed to forgive billions in student loans anyway?

You're right you shouldn't be happy... with the Republicans who took your student loan assistance away. Don't be angry with the guys who tried to give it to you (and in some cases still did).

 

[Oglemi]

Third, as shown in the picture, only 3 issues are allowed. And one of them is education funding. While this could be argued to show a general trend, it doesn't even necessarily mean that it isn't a big deal for these polled- it could just be their 4th issue, while a lot of other people focus others. While all of these issues have both sides for each party, different topics are more important to one or the other depending on the status quo.

You can make an argument that what is happening in Gaza is not a big deal in general, but for young people specifically IMO this data is not sufficient.

This kind of makes Celtic's point though doesn't it? The Gaza conflict is not in the top 3 issues of over 1,000 college participants, from as soon as 2 weeks ago. I haven't looked to see if the pollers include from where they were polled, as it may also be regional, or by which method, but I feel like you simply are choosing to disagree with a statistically sufficient poll that doesn't match your narrative.

 

[boo836]

And it won’t be in my lifetime, unfortunately. American voters currently think Trump is better than Biden on the economy despite all economic data saying the contrary. Also, the most common economic ill discussed today, inflation, can be directly be tied to Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic (somehow voters forget the shitshow we were in 4 years ago). But in the United States, voters blame the sitting President for everything. There was a Florida poll that showed 22% of voters blamed Biden for the overturning of Roe v. Wade. I think it’s clear U.S. democracy is on its death bed.

One thing that will never cease to amaze me in conversations with Americans is how much better a grasp i have on their history, politics, and law than the overwhelming majority of their own fucking populace. I know it's inflammatory to say, but it truly is a nation of proud ignoramuses, and one thst's primed for an autocratic takeover.

Considering the context of this conversation, are you accusing me (who is a minority in several ways targeted by Conservatives) of not actually giving a shit about these people? That's a pretty mean thing to say, and you don't really back that up- you just make a claim.

You created a person in your head to attack, frankly. You keep saying you are super anti-fascist and understand fascism while asking that others bow down to the status quo that is actively creating fascism, and the party that is/was actively funding some of the other side's candidates because they think fascists will be easier to beat in the election than more moderate Conservatives (https: //www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-primary-season-fund-conservative-advertsing-illinois-colorado-11655326924?mod=trending_now_opn_2).

You said I don't understand fascism but you don't seem to get that Liberalism and civility politics as an ideology has very few ways to actually combat fascism because it's ineffective, and its policies will always breed discontent. Discontent that it will always be easier to blame on minorities, always make an in-group/out-group, define people as "societal ills". The Democratic Party as is already participates in a lot of this discourse such as finding the homeless yucky, playing into myths about how immigrants are bad for the economy, and bombing foreigners. (Also, cough cough, hatred of actual socialists and communists is also another trait of fascism but we like to ignore that in America!)

Fascism is not that complicated. The point is to find groups of people, an in-group that is disenfranchised, and the out-group, and then say that if we get rid of them then society will propser. Give us the power to do that and we will. Let it fester, make people get a real "ick" from them, see them as disgusting burdens on society.

Liberalism doesn't have a counter for it because individualism and capitalism doesn't really allow it. They will continue to disenfranchise people, including the groups that have been promised success (like white guys), and then people will point the finger- either cynically, like Fascist leaders, or without real understanding. The Dems do not only not really have a counter to this, but as I just said, actively participates in this culture with certain groups, and also as of late has a pretty bad track record with policing and protesting! Neat. Also supporting the Tiktok bill which is pretty explicitly sparked by the pro-Palestinian posting on it, which even establishment figures like Mitt Romney has suggested (https:// youtu.be/V92PzA6eEyM?).

The Democratic Party is often happy to spout compromise with the Fascists as long as they are "civil" and are not loud like Donald Trump. Joe Biden has said his news source is Morning Joe (https ://www.axios.com/2024/02/02/biden-obsession-morning-joe-msnbc-media), which is basically just liberal Fox News; with almost indistinguishable lines about protestors (

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785636351330713667

) example, homeless people, policing, etc.

Stop doubling down on the idea that the only reason people would hate the Democratic Party is performative "I'm an anarchist on Twitter" like you think, and not "They suck and are actively the other half marching us towards fascism, bomb babies in the Middle East, and are actively awful."

You cannot be a "radical" without understanding that the Democratic Party is as instrumental to the rise of fascism in America as the Republican Party, and if you study Neo-Nazis as you say, you should understand this.

You should still vote for Biden because he's still a better candidate in the short-term, but you should do it with full knowledge that this will do absolutely literally nothing to stop the rise of fascism, maybe slightly delay it.

"If you study neo-Nazis as you say, you should understand this" says who, you? This whole "The Democrats are just as responsible" is the political science equivalent of telling people vaccines cause autism (which coincidentally is a very common position among the "Democrats are the real fascists" crowd. It's an entirely unserious statement that's more dependent on tired conspiracist mythologies in pop media rather than any concrete analysis of power relations or networks involving the far-right. Literally no credible resource on neo-Nazi activity is drawing connections to the fucking Democrats, because it's not fucking Democrats doing "anti-war" events with right-wing extremists, it's the supposed "ethical choices" like fucking Jill Stein and Cornell West. It's not liberals tuning into literal GOP psyops like Rising, it's the terminally online consumers of the attention economy who fancy themselves as "leftists."
How the fuck can you square complaints over Big Tech regulations and self-identify as a leftist? To take Mitt Romney's bullshit at face value is bad enough. To try linking a goal advocated for years by preeminent leftist scholars on contemporary digital IPE to fucking Palestine of all things is just ridiculous.

 

[Chou Toshio]

The problem isn’t stats, it’s strategic reality.

I highly doubt that student loan forgiveness, healthcare reform, or economic opportunity is what’s driving the dramatic shift in willingness of younger voters to vote for Biden.

He’s been disappointing on all fronts throughout his presidency, but as has been pointed out several times on this page— he’s much, much better than Trump. Back in September, NO ONE would expect Trump to lead or even come close to Biden with young voters.

Economic issues alone would not have changed that balance— surely Biden was not driving enthusiasm, but there was no way he was going to quickly start bleeding out while changing nothing. And in fact not nothing— along with Marajuana policy if anything he’s trying HARDER now to appeal with domestic policy while bleeding more.

Disappointment might be enabling this turn— but it’s not what’s CAUSING it.

Biden is still far better than Trump for young folks’ domestic prospects overall and they generally know it. It’s only a moral issue that can overcome that unchanged well being calculus. It doesn’t take the whole population of young people but just a very vocal minority to drive a disappointed but voting population into a couch sitting one.


It might be only the most engaged and activist 5-8% of the population really tuned in— but that’s also the part that knows your accomplishments best, the part of the population you’d want/need to be most aggressively volunteering/phone banking/educating others on your wins in infrastructure spending, drug price reform, environmental protections, union advancements, the student loan reductions that did get through, etc.

You want the most engaged people driving THAT, not yelling Genocide Joe as they get arrested.

You want Bernie Sanders and AoC out their singing your praises and calling you Papa Bear Biden; not in turn being aggressively forced by their own bases to say that Gaza may be your Vietnam moment and may be a genocide.

If the 8% didn’t matter you wouldn’t meekly and pathetically move the Democratic National convention to online because you were too terrified to face your own base.



In the Obama years, Democratic strategists said in a generation they would have utter supremacy because of generational shift to a higher educated, more progressive voting population— Biden’s 2020 victory and continuing Gen Z driven Democratic electoral wins validate that strategy.

—but now we have a Democratic president unable to show up and speak at ANY campus across the country.

Not that he won’t do it— but he CAN’T do it, isn’t ALLOWED to do it, and everyone knows it, and knows that it’s because of Gaza.

THAT illustrates the problem— and that’s not about student loans.


The electoral problem with Gaza is not so much the issue itself, but how it shapes strategic possibilities and worse, narrative. Biden is paying for it because the handling of Gaza, the movement of the convention online, hiding from protesters— all of it is making himself look weak, afraid, incompetent, and morally questionable. Not just running from students, but being made a bitch in public by Netanyahu, all the clearly terrible media interviews, and America’s obvious estrangement from allies and plummeting international respect— all from a President elected on promises of stability, competence, and reaffirming commitment to global collaboration and order.

All of that deeply colors how the voters are perceiving him in total, NOT just on Gaza.

 

[GatoDelFuego]

so supporting the Tiktok bill which is pretty explicitly sparked by the pro-Palestinian posting on it, which even establishment figures like Mitt Romney has suggested (https:// youtu.be/V92PzA6eEyM?).

Literally everybody across the political spectrum thinks that this bill was targeted against their particular political group

 

[adjectivenoun]

Literally everybody across the political spectrum thinks that this bill was targeted against their particular political group

It was over for TikTok when it started serving its users pop-ups prompting them to call their representatives. That's exactly the kind of foreign influence on American policymaking that Congress was concerned about.

 

[ant4456]

This kind of makes Celtic's point though doesn't it? The Gaza conflict is not in the top 3 issues of over 1,000 college participants, from as soon as 2 weeks ago. I haven't looked to see if the pollers include from where they were polled, as it may also be regional, or by which method, but I feel like you simply are choosing to disagree with a statistically sufficient poll that doesn't match your narrative.

No, it doesn't.

I already looked at the methodology given and it was:

"Methodology: This study was conducted May 3-6 from a representative sample of n=1,250 students nationwide from 2-year and 4-year schools. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Generation Lab conducts polling using a demographically representative sample frame of college students at community colleges, technical colleges, trade schools and public and private four-year institutions."

Generation Labs did not give their own methodology, they just retweeted Axios' Tweet and they don't list it on their site. So this is it.

You can't claim the data supports the claim that it does not matter for the Democratic Party's success because this is not just Democratic voters. Issues do not poll the same on each side of the aisle.

Having 8% be protesters is also insane, that'd suggest literally millions of protesters, and shows that this data is not as airtight as you seem to suggest.

You can say "erm it just doesn't fit your narrative!" but no, this just isn't that good of data! I never said that the other data poll given was wrong, either, this one just doesn't support the point really.

 

[Oglemi]

Having 8% be protesters is also insane, that'd suggest literally millions of protesters, and shows that this data is not as airtight as you seem to suggest.

I had to dig more because you keep calling this number insane, but 8% of 15mil students is 1.2mil students, spread across (presumably) 5,000 campuses across the U.S. (split evenly by 2- and 4-year colleges). 8% of a particularly large student body like UW Madison, which has 50,000 students, is 4,000 students. And the 8% is for any demonstration on either side. You can say that it "feels" insane, but I've witnessed marches on State St. up to the capital with numbers in the hundreds multiple times since October. 8% is probably super low for those with mass demonstrations like at Colombia. 8% is a very believable number nation-wide, especially at a self-report level.

Not to mention, the numbers in this poll seem to corroborate with the Harvard CAPS poll from the end of April, as well as a Pew Research poll from March.

I'm not out here stanning Generation Lab or saying we shouldn't be critical of polls or that they're the end all be all (if they were Hillary yaddayadda) but they are used by the White House and media, and in this instance the numbers are saying that a vast majority of Americans are largely disengaged with the Gaza conflict, want it to end, and the GLab poll also shows that it's probably not determinative for how people will vote come November.

 

[Local Dog]

Seeing the European right wing parties tearing themselves apart is honestly really interesting. The population is extremely receptive to right wing politics at the moment, but they bicker more than they ever have before and lose votes despite the entire climate being extremely favorable for them

I think Russia is too occupied at the moment with attempts at genocide and keeping their own country somehow stable to finance and manage these parties. Maybe this current political climate is too favorable for them, leading to rash and unsustainable decisions. Like Maximilian Krah could've easily succeeded, but he was too arrogant to keep the spy affair at bay and now potentially ended his political career due to his unprompted statements towards the SS

The rift that's now there between the AfD and the RN was kinda predictable in retrospect. The RN is so radically catholic, whilst the AfD borders on anti-religious at times. I am not too familiar with other parties in the ID, maybe similar conflicts will arise in the future

Let's see what will happen. I don't know if the current right wing party model will continue to work in the future. I think parties that depict themselves as middle of the spectrum, but being right wing in policies may be the future, akin to the CDU or the ÖVP. Albeit, if there's no right wing parties that depict themselves as radical to compare with, the whole middle of the spectrum depiction may no longer work

 

[Chou Toshio]

And, Biden “putting his foot down” would naturally lose some moderates, independents and more centrist voters

This would probably be true last year October or November. Not really anymore.

Biden has already shown his support for Israel, has sent weapons for months, and repeatedly been clear on commitment to a 2 state solution.

There has already been moderation, more than enough. We’re at a point where Chuck Schumer called for regime change in Israel, where Nancy Pelosi signed a letter to stop arming Israel, where the UN, the ICC, ICJ, majority of allies have been critical of Israel or outright rebuking it to different degrees— we have former BUSH staffers saying Biden is too weak in defending Palestinian human rights and John McCain’s widow saying Gaza is in outright famine on national television.

Even beyond moderates, even Israel’s defense minister is demanding Netanyahu outline a road to seeing Gaza governed by Palestinians.

If Biden wanted to make a moderate off-ramp for this, he couldn’t do it last fall, but there are a million ways to spin it now and enough conflicting sentiment among “centrists” that he could easily do it now.

Well NOW they crossed my red line in Rafa so I’m cutting off all weapons support and demanding Bibi immediately show up in Egypt to negotiate with Hamas directly.

He’ll lose the most rabid bloodthirsty genocidal zionists but true moderate voters?

Nonono— now it would be easy to give a response that changes course here while keeping their support.

 

[RaikouLover]

Two significant points in todays news:

Nikki Haley comes out in support of Trump. While this is not a surprise since she is craven, self-serving politician, the important question is what becomes of her voters. She’s been obtaining 15-25% of GOP primary “phantom” votes since dropping out. Do they support Trump, not vote, vote third party, or vote for Biden? I predict the majority of them will either go RFK or vote Biden, with GOP down ballot selections. Biden ran ahead of congressional Democrats in 2020 due to this.

More polling data came out about how voters view the economy. It appears nearly 60% of US voters think the US is currently in a recession, despite evidence suggesting the economy is robust. I blame the shit media. Voter views on the economy are a partisan delusion (with Republicans being more delusional than Democrats) in this day and age:

 

[Divine Retribution]

It appears nearly 60% of US voters think the US is currently in a recession, despite evidence suggesting the economy is robust. I blame the shit media

Honestly I don't think it's that simple. Some parts of the economy genuinely are quite shit, most notably housing. The economy is an extremely complex beast and, much to the chagrin of your average econ major no doubt, you can't just boil it down to a line going up and say everything is fine.

 

[RaikouLover]

Honestly I don't think it's that simple. Some parts of the economy genuinely are quite shit, most notably housing. The economy is an extremely complex beast and, much to the chagrin of your average econ major no doubt, you can't just boil it down to a line going up and say everything is fine.

Housing is its own multi-faceted complex beast of its own. The economic metrics are in fact.. fine. They aren’t perfect. But the point was there is a huge gap between what the economy is and what voters believe it is. It is irrationally linked to the President. Nothing in the economy significantly changes in the month before and after a new President’s inauguration… but to many voters it is everything.

 

[adjectivenoun]

Housing is its own multi-faceted complex beast of its own. The economic metrics are in fact.. fine. They aren’t perfect. But the point was there is a huge gap between what the economy is and what voters believe it is. It is irrationally linked to the President. Nothing in the economy significantly changes in the month before and after a new President’s inauguration… but to many voters it is everything.

Part of the problem is that there's a significant disconnect between the indicators used to measure the health of the macroeconomy and the microeconomic reality of individual Americans. For many, decent jobs are still hard to come by, and the price of groceries is still outpacing their wages. Macroeconomic data may suggest that the economy as a whole is doing good, but individuals who aren't seeing their situations improve will always regard that data with skepticism.

 

[boo836]

Honestly I don't think it's that simple. Some parts of the economy genuinely are quite shit, most notably housing. The economy is an extremely complex beast and, much to the chagrin of your average econ major no doubt, you can't just boil it down to a line going up and say everything is fine.

This isn't a question of "line go up," it's a question of perception. The overwhelming majority of voters in the country don't register anything short of seismic shifts on the scale of 08, 20, or Reagan-era stagflation independently. Hell, the overwhelming majority of voters in developed economies aren't economically literate either, which is why you get people in Canada being mad about getting mad about "the carbon tax" despite the fact it blatantly gives most people far more than they pay in, why Brexiteers who don't own millions of pounds exist, and people still put money into Gamestop. Economic activity and perceptions are increasingly informed by media, and often media actors that try to influence large scale economic activity are heavily invested in trying to sell bullshit narratives to satisfy a particular economic agenda. Look no further than the partisan gap in economic perceptions. That's largely fuelled by the right wing media, and you will find similar results in Canada too.

Part of the problem is that there's a significant disconnect between the indicators used to measure the health of the macroeconomy and the microeconomic reality of individual Americans. For many, decent jobs are still hard to come by, and the price of groceries is still outpacing their wages. Macroeconomic data may suggest that the economy as a whole is doing good, but individuals who aren't seeing their situations improve will always regard that data with skepticism.

The average American isn't worse off than the start of Biden's presidency, and the majority of people who think the economy isn't doing well are in the landowners' party. That's got nothing to do with scales of analysis. You can point to anyone struggling during a boom and say they'll be skeptical that the economy is great, it doesn't change that it's out of touch with present data.


Local Dog Honestly it's not that interesting, AfD and RN are going to find themselves at odds over plenty more than simply religious identity, RN is much more syncretic (and arguably closer economically to classical fascism) and economically "left" than LR whereas AfD mostly tries to occupy the economic right of the CDU. RN is also desperate to avoid associating with Nazis (which is why it's been hemorrhaging politicians like Wyssa, Philippot, and Marion Marechal), because its associations encouraged the rest of the French public to circle the wagons to favour whatever frontrunner emerges. It should be pointed out that a big part of this is because they're trying to pull from their respective countries' boomer leftist contituencies. AFD wants those racist GDR communists that dream of going back to the lily-white GDR, whereas the RN really wants trade unionists and welfare recipients, hence welfare chauvinism being a key theme in their propaganda.

IMO FDI's transformation to a major partner in EU politics is far more interesting. It's radically shifted its positions to gain legitimacy within the broader EU.

Spies and influence agents in the AfD is hardly news either, I'm fairly certain a certain Russian with the initials YK (or i guess JK now, lol what a Wehraboo) still works as an advisor despite his known contacts with European neo-Nazis. Rhymes with Hofner. I won't say who here because that prick definitely googles his name.

 

[faint]

Housing is its own multi-faceted complex beast of its own. The economic metrics are in fact.. fine. They aren’t perfect. But the point was there is a huge gap between what the economy is and what voters believe it is. It is irrationally linked to the President. Nothing in the economy significantly changes in the month before and after a new President’s inauguration… but to many voters it is everything.

I would recommend you read or watch some of Kyla Scanlan's work on what she dubbed the vibesession. These sorts of polls are never going to be accurate because they focus entirely on "real economic data" and ignore the very real problems the average American faces. Just because the data shows that we are not in a recession doesn't mean that people's buying power is less than it was a few years ago. It doesn't mean they're not living paycheck to paycheck. I imagine you are like me and make more than the average American, so it doesn't feel as real to us, but it's not something to just wave away and has nothing to do with the sitting president.

 

[RaikouLover]

I would recommend you read or watch some of Kyla Scanlan's work on what she dubbed the vibesession. These sorts of polls are never going to be accurate because they focus entirely on "real economic data" and ignore the very real problems the average American faces. Just because the data shows that we are not in a recession doesn't mean that people's buying power is less than it was a few years ago. It doesn't mean they're not living paycheck to paycheck. I imagine you are like me and make more than the average American, so it doesn't feel as real to us, but it's not something to just wave away and has nothing to do with the sitting president.

We can explain away the data until we are blue in the face but it does not change the economic data. The U.S. is not in a recession, nor is it at a worse point than four years ago. “Vibesession” is the same as saying I feel like the planet is not warming because it snowed outside my house today.

This also tacts with Trump amnesia. Voters seem to think we were better off four years ago, despite the fact that we couldn’t fucking go outside, businesses were closed, unemployment was high, and thousands of Americans were dying from covid. But you know… vibes.

 

[Magcargo]

Should be an easy Biden vote from me.

Republican senators / politicians lost any ounce of sympathy I had for them in the past 4 years with the clown show they've made on trying to prosecute Hunter Biden for ....nothing, canceling student loan debt forgiveness, banning books from multiple states, outlawing abortion in multiple states, creating bounty laws to arrest women who have received an abortion, attempting to restrict voters rights in multiple states with bullshit lawsuits, and a laundry list of other issues (like striking down multiple laws to fix inflation and the like). And they aren't slowing down! They are relentless and will continue down this path to pass more bullshit like outlawing contraception, a nationwide ban on abortion, and other extreme draconian measures in their pursuit of power.

I don't think Biden's stance on Israel vs Palestine conflict is necessarily the best, but to be frank, I care much more about domestic policies than foreign ones. And while Biden's stance on the conflict isn't the best, can anyone really say the alternative path that Republicans are proposing on this issue is better? Just two weeks ago, Republican senators criticized Biden for halting weapons to Israel. I seriously doubt that Republican politicians will govern with Palestine's best interest in mind.

As for Trump himself, the man's latest trials and lawsuits have painted him in a terrible light and the dude is becoming increasingly incomprehensible every time I see him talk, with a lot of strange gaffs on top of some very dangerous talking points that get him into a lot of trouble. Not helping matters is that a lot of his top VP candidates are election deniers or very strange people. I believe Christi Noems recently bragged that she'd put down Joe Biden's Dog, Cricket, if she came to the White House. Puts a pretty bad picture on the rest of the party.

Before 2020, I was mostly politically uninformed and didn't have much of a grasp on what was going on. Paying a bit more attention and seeing the kinds of draconian measures these Republican politicians want to pass has nonetheless opened my eyes to a lot and has made the choice a lot more obvious (if the January 6 insurrection didn't do that already).

 

[faint]

We can explain away the data until we are blue in the face but it does not change the economic data. The U.S. is not in a recession, nor is it at a worse point than four years ago. “Vibesession” is the same as saying I feel like the planet is not warming because it snowed outside my house today.

This also tacts with Trump amnesia. Voters seem to think we were better off four years ago, despite the fact that we couldn’t fucking go outside, businesses were closed, unemployment was high, and thousands of Americans were dying from covid. But you know… vibes.

Because for most Americans financial well-being is how they interpret the concept of being "better off" in which case, they're right. They had more money and spending power 4 years ago than they do now. You seem fine ignoring the average voters opinion because it doesn't match the DATA yet when the DATA backs up something you dislike you become a CNN anchor. The stimulus checks and unemployment benefits did a lot for people. Just because they couldn't eat inside a restaurant doesn't mean they weren't doing better financially.