Metagame USUM Memetagame Discussion was a mistake

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Alright to actually put a meaningful topic of discussion, I've been putting rain through a lot of the changes to USUM, and I've been using mons that specifically benefit from the rain through typing and abilities.

I think Azumaril gaining Knock Off can be a huge surprise if Ferrothorn or Toxipex comes in expecting to wall a Play rough or a Liquidation/Aqua Jet, and getting their leftovers/rocky helmet smacked.

Toxicroak got super buffed, specifically with Gunk Shot, getting that stab 120 poison, also gaining drain punch and knock off, and I've even played with Super Fang as an interesting twist. Again because I throw out my frog and they try and switch out to a Ferrothorn or a Toxipex or some other physical tank to take the hit, and suddenly half health and are in OH/2H KO from another move on Toxicroak, or something else.

I think people are really down on Araquanid, I think it fills a nice niche in OU, and I think it's a solid C+ student, and that's ok, that is still passing the class. I personally hate using Smergle, and think you can do a few more things with an Araquanid lead. Lunge, Liqudation is an interesting combo along with Sticky Web because it means any switch in Pokemon could come in with 2 stats lowered. Leach Life keeps it healthy forever, and also I've seen a set where people experiment with bug bite since depending on the team you could see a few berry holders.

This is just my blanket statement for all physical water types, run liquidation. Effects of the two moves aside, just the 5 more base power should be more than enough reason to run it, like Swampert can 2HKO Spedef Skarm with rocks, and the chance to lower defensive stats I think is more valuable than a chance to flinch. So yeah I think the only physical water type you might not run liqudation on is Crawdaunt because it fights an even more damaging ability for some accuracy or priority.

Some of the cool defogers that Rain now has, obviously Zapdos and Thundurus, and personally I like Zapdos more since i think it does more things, but priority defog is pretty cool. Also I think we could see maybe some use of a Physical Thundurus, or a mix set, base 115 atk is nothing to sneeze at, and getting knock off and thunder punch and Superpower there is a world where this is an option. Thundurus-T is mostly, it can do defog also which is still a yay i suppose. Rotom W is a huge winner of Defog, but that has already been talked about, but i think it just makes Rotom W an even more solid mon, defog and a status move is great. And just since people are talking about it, even though it's not really on the viability list, Empoleon with defog is nifty and I think there is an actual conversation around it.

Quagsire and Gastrodon get Earthpower because I know some people really don't like running a nature that weakens EQ, also I think Icy Wind is something cute they both get that can put people in an awkward spot if the switch out and suddenly that pokemon is crippled a bit.

You can now run a physical Manaphy with liquidation and knock off and Z bounce..... because idk I won 3/5 games, and that is the whole of my argument, no one expects it so if you like doing these things, it's a thing.

Kingdra getting Iron head is actually huge, it finally gives it a fairy type coverage and I think makes the DD physical Kingdra, along with the bit about Liquidation I think you have an actual viable physical set for Kingdra, I don't think it trumps the special version but I really do think Iron Head is huge on Kingdra, also Z Bounce get's rid of Spdef M Venu, Keldeo, Tangrowth, and a few others.

And just to round out and mention other things I've had a lot of fun with that i think people should try out on their rain teams.
- Seismitoad got access to Knock Off and rocks and can sorta act like a Diet M-Swamper, if you wanted to use that mega spot on something else.
- If you really really wanted access to Heal Bell, and don't feel like running Chansey or Blissey, Vaporeon is a totally viable option as a water cleric.
- Hawlucha got a punch of new stuff for coverage if you wanted it, it's still the same ol scary thing, but you get Thunder/Fire/Drain Punch, Zen Headbutt, Defog and Tailwind if you wanted a bit of self support, and I think the biggest it get's Iron head to deal with fairy types

I didn't go over every single thing you can run on a rain team, because I haven't used everything, but these were the things that really stood out to me when I was testing things, or just things I found kinda cool and unique, and maybe some things that are just outside the meta but are viable.

**note** I know Aqua tail is a move tutor but I don't trust 90% accuracy, because I think every single person here knows that 90% chance to hit, really means, going to miss 90% of the time.
Everything you mentioned has been aviable since at least ORAS, if not BW2 or even Platinum.
 
Everything you mentioned has been aviable since at least ORAS, if not BW2 or even Platinum.
I am well aware, but so was Defog Gliscor, and if you read this thread people are super hyped for it.
If it didn't come across you could think of it as "hey remember these things, you can do these things again now."
But you know we can keep talking about Naganadel and how it makes you have to run AV TTar or Heatran.
 
I am well aware, but so was Defog Gliscor, and if you read this thread people are super hyped for it.
If it didn't come across you could think of it as "hey remember these things, you can do these things again now."
But you know we can keep talking about Naganadel and how it makes you have to run AV TTar or Heatran.
Gliscor did not have Defog in conjunction with Poison Heal any previous gens, that is what sets it apart from all ur mentions. To be quite honest ur post was absolutely pointless...

Anyways to get some discussion going i'd like to talk about a set i've been considering using.
This is bulky Defog Mega Altaria, it seems pretty solid because of its decent defensive typing, coverage options, and access to reliable recovery. Because of its good defensive typing and bulk it can take on Pokemon like Ash Gren and Tapu Bulu.

Altaria-Mega @ Altarianite
Ability: Pixilate
EVs: 248 HP / 100 Def / 160 Spe
Impish / Bold Nature
- Defog
- Roost
- Return / Hyper Voice
- Earthquake / Fire Blast / Ice Beam

Earthquake can hit Magearna and Heatran for really solid damage. U can also go specially offensive with Hyper Voice over Return and Fire Blast or Ice Beam over Earthquake to hit Celesteela, Ferrothorn, and Landorus-T respectively.
 
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Gliscor did not have Defog in conjunction with Poison Heal any previous gens, that is what sets it apart from all ur mentions.
then i suppose I can delete all of it and just change it to one sentence

That aside, Liquidation is great and I'm so happy it is a move tutor move.
 
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To be quite honest, Marzbar is right in thinking that Empoleon can be used like that to defeat Naganadel. The OU room, on play.pokemonshowdown.com, begs to differ. They think that not only should you use SpA Empoleon, but that only Scarf Greninja, SpD Heatran not having SpA investment, and AV Ttar are the only ways to beat Naga.

I sort of perfected (to a degree) a physical Empoleon set:
Empoleon @ Assault Vest
Ability: Torrent
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 4 SpD
Careful Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Aqua Jet
- Earthquake
- Liquidation
- Avalanche
The calcs provided much earlier seem to prove that this can be used to much effect (more so than AV Ttar).

You really don't need scarf on Greninja either. Just Ice beam when it switches, or water shuriken for priority. These are my 3 cents, for now, and hopefully for some time.
100% agree with everything, but I would use Defiant ability instead because you can switch into Defog or Webs or even predict Intimidate, and then greatly boost your Attack, which compliments the set perfectly.

Maybe Steel STAB to threaten fairies?
 
100% agree with everything, but I would use Defiant ability instead because you can switch into Defog or Webs or even predict Intimidate, and then greatly boost your Attack, which compliments the set perfectly.

Maybe Steel STAB to threaten fairies?
Defiant would not work as Avalanche is only obtainable in gen 4, before Defiant was even released.
The only Steel STAB available is either Iron Head or Steel Wing. And I'd have to give up one of the moves. Priority matters sometimes, EQ is eq, and avalanche is for most things that float. Liquidation is the best Water Stab, so I got no room for the fairy killing.
 
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To be quite honest, Marzbar is right in thinking that Empoleon can be used like that to defeat Naganadel. The OU room, on play.pokemonshowdown.com, begs to differ. They think that not only should you use SpA Empoleon, but that only Scarf Greninja, SpD Heatran not having SpA investment, and AV Ttar are the only ways to beat Naga.

I sort of perfected (to a degree) a physical Empoleon set:
Empoleon @ Assault Vest
Ability: Torrent
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 4 SpD
Careful Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Aqua Jet
- Earthquake
- Liquidation
- Avalanche
The calcs provided much earlier seem to prove that this can be used to much effect (more so than AV Ttar).

You really don't need scarf on Greninja either. Just Ice beam when it switches, or water shuriken for priority. These are my 3 cents, for now, and hopefully for some time.
I'm not understanding what this set is even supposed to do. First off, there is no point in using it physical, even less so considering that Avalanche forbids you from using Defiant. Avalanche is only very slightly stronger than Ice Beam, and actually weaker against relevant targets. Liquidation is of course completely overshadowed by Scald both in power and utility. Aqua Jet seems nice, but from a meager 86 base Attack it is never doing big damage, and Earthquake is simply not that useful. The EV spread and item choices are also very questionable, because it takes about the same amount of damage as a specially defensive Leftovers set. Assault Vest forbids you from using moves like Stealth Rocks and Defog, which are the only things that give Empoleon somewhat of a niche, and prevents passive recovery from Leftovers as well. Empoleon itself has always been a questionable choice over Heatran, and it isn't any better at checking Naganadel outside of rare HP Ground sets(which really aren't needed because Devastating Drake can push through both with not much prior damage).

As for the last comment about Greninja, I don't get what you are even trying to prove. Who the hell switches Naganadel on Greninja? And how are you supposed to revenge kill a Dragon type with Water Shuriken, which doesn't even 2HKO with Specs?
 
You really don't need scarf on Greninja either. Just Ice beam when it switches, or water shuriken for priority. These are my 3 cents, for now, and hopefully for some time.
This makes little sense to me. Scarf greninja is used as a pokemon that can revenge naganadel by outspeeding and ohkoing. Literally when would you have the chance to ice beam when it switches? Absolutely no one is switching naga in to greninja. You need the scarf to kill it, because no one sane is going to ever switch naganadel in to greninja or attempt to set up on one.
To your second so called naga counter:
Water Shuriken (20 BP) (3 hits) vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Naganadel: 108-129 (37.6 - 44.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
And this is assuming its even gotten ash form

oof sniped
 
To be quite honest, Marzbar is right in thinking that Empoleon can be used like that to defeat Naganadel. The OU room, on play.pokemonshowdown.com, begs to differ. They think that not only should you use SpA Empoleon, but that only Scarf Greninja, SpD Heatran not having SpA investment, and AV Ttar are the only ways to beat Naga.

I sort of perfected (to a degree) a physical Empoleon set:
Empoleon @ Assault Vest
Ability: Torrent
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 4 SpD
Careful Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Aqua Jet
- Earthquake
- Liquidation
- Avalanche
The calcs provided much earlier seem to prove that this can be used to much effect (more so than AV Ttar).

You really don't need scarf on Greninja either. Just Ice beam when it switches, or water shuriken for priority. These are my 3 cents, for now, and hopefully for some time.
While I definetly think Empoleon has a niche in this Naganadel meta that set is very... very awful

My set looks somthing like this
Empoleon @ Leftovers
Torrent
Calm Nature
248 HP / 8 Def / 252 SpDef (Very flexible,but since Emp is here to check Naganadel, it works well with max max)
- Scald
- Ice Beam (2HKOes Naga)
- Protect (Extra lefties, helps against choice Gren and Tanks Z Draco from Naganadel much better, don't reveal it too early)
- Stealth Rock/Defog, depending on your team

If Naga ever leaves the tier,there is no reason to use this mon, which is already very niche in a Naganadel plagued meta
 
To be quite honest, Marzbar is right in thinking that Empoleon can be used like that to defeat Naganadel. The OU room, on play.pokemonshowdown.com, begs to differ. They think that not only should you use SpA Empoleon, but that only Scarf Greninja, SpD Heatran not having SpA investment, and AV Ttar are the only ways to beat Naga.
Empoleon can check Naga easily... using a normal Empoleon set with Ice Beam. This abomination you created is unecessary. Also don't listen to the OU room. It's generally unwise to take advice from a group of people who don't feel the need to provide any evidence or reasoning to back up any of their arguments ever, and the OU room is particularly egregious when it comes to this, especially when discussing ongoing or potential suspects/bans.

I sort of perfected (to a degree) a physical Empoleon set:
Empoleon @ Assault Vest
Ability: Torrent
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 4 SpD
Careful Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Aqua Jet
- Earthquake
- Liquidation
- Avalanche
The calcs provided much earlier seem to prove that this can be used to much effect (more so than AV Ttar).
I'm sorry but this set is actually bad. Your Naga check has base 86 Attack, a hilariously sub-optimal set, and no recovery. There's actually no reason to use this over a Naga check that actually does things other than just check Naga, like Tran or Tar. Empoleon isn't even a terrible Pokemon (well, kind of) but this set is just not viable at all.

You really don't need scarf on Greninja either. Just Ice beam when it switches, or water shuriken for priority.
Can you spend like 30 seconds thinking about the shit you post before you post it please? Why the fuck would Naga ever go hard into Greninja? Maybe you're spending all your time on the dead low ladder where people make garbage plays like that but that's basically throwing away a wincon for absolutely no reason. Shuriken also does pathetic damage.

These are my 3 cents, for now, and hopefully for some time.
I agree.
 
Empoleon itself has always been a questionable choice over Heatran, and it isn't any better at checking Naganadel outside of rare HP Ground sets(which really aren't needed because Devastating Drake can push through both with not much prior damage).
A Devastating Drake cannot push through Empoleon... it would need a LOT of prior damage. As in over 50%
 

fanyfan

i once put 42 mcdonalds chicken nuggets in my anus
A Devastating Drake cannot push through Empoleon... it would need a LOT of prior damage. As in over 50%
No(?)
+2 252 SpA Naganadel Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Empoleon: 223-263 (59.9 - 70.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

Empoleon isn’t even that great of a check, as it does to the combo of +2 devastating drake into +2 Fire Blast and doesn’t OHKO with ice beam. It does put it in range of a lot of priority, but Empoleon still has to die in the process, or just dies outright if it’s at 60 or less, which isn’t unreasonable for a mon with no reliable recovery, especially if it’s also trying to set up rocks.
+2 252 SpA Naganadel Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Empoleon: 169-199 (45.4 - 53.4%) -- 1.2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

4 SpA Empoleon Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Naganadel: 184-218 (64.1 - 75.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
 
No(?)
+2 252 SpA Naganadel Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Empoleon: 223-263 (59.9 - 70.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

Empoleon isn’t even that great of a check, as it does to the combo of +2 devastating drake into +2 Fire Blast and doesn’t OHKO with ice beam. It does put it in range of a lot of priority, but Empoleon still has to die in the process, or just dies outright if it’s at 60 or less, which isn’t unreasonable for a mon with no reliable recovery, especially if it’s also trying to set up rocks.
+2 252 SpA Naganadel Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Empoleon: 169-199 (45.4 - 53.4%) -- 1.2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

4 SpA Empoleon Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Naganadel: 184-218 (64.1 - 75.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Which is why I initially suggested Assault Vest because it prevents a 2HKO. I know it means you can't run Defog or Stealth Rock, but there are many Pokémon that are much better at running those moves and if you want a Defogger or Rock setter run something else instead. Don't try to shoehorn them on Empoleon just because it can learn them. This is about checking Naganadel.
 

earl

(EVIOLITE COMPATIBLE)
is a Community Contributor
Which is why I initially suggested Assault Vest because it prevents a 2HKO. I know it means you can't run Defog or Stealth Rock, but there are many Pokémon that are much better at running those moves and if you want a Defogger or Rock setter run something else instead. Don't try to shoehorn them on Empoleon just because it can learn them. This is about checking Naganadel.
If not running Stealth Rock for at least a shred of use outside of checking Naganadel, why even touch empoleon when there are better checks that aren’t complete ass outside of dealing with Naga? Just because there’s a situational counter to a Pokémon doesn’t mean you should use it. For example, Scarf Gren can also revenge kill Volcarona and other set-up sweepers while also keeping up momentum, Assvest TTar is a bad set but has offensive presence still and deal some with virtually every other special attacker and SpDef Heatran can annoy with Magma Storm and still set up rocks.
 
Sick of the Naga talk here so some other observations:

Blacephalon seems like absolute garbage from what I've seen so far. It's got an awkward speed tier, trash bulk and struggles a lot on the meta right now with TTar being everywhere, and I'm guessing when the VR opens it will plummet in a similar way to Buzzwole in ORAS (although it will probably stay ranked), although there is one interesting thing I've seen on it: Will O Wisp. This lures in Ttar, who then gets burned and then can't check the things it should as it can't KO them. It was a huge surprise to me when I lost a game this way, and while it is not the best TTar lure, it could pair well with Naga (not saying much, everything does) to weaken TTar. Still think it's pretty bad though. Stakataka seems cool so far, but it's little more than another TR option, even if a good one. Basically, neither of these two are outstanding and they seem like C rank mons to me.

Out of the defoggers, I'm probably enjoying Gliscor the most. It's not overwhelming, but it's a solid mon and while it does have 4mss, can survive without toxic, taunt or U-turn, depending which one of those you prefer. Taunt can be dropped if you have another taunt user (such as tran), and the toxic/U-turn choice seems to depend on if your team prefers status or momentum. Koko struggles to find a place for it, needing to drop either U-turn or HP ice, either one making it struggle with grounds more, although it is still reasonable. Defog lando seems rare as it has better things to be doing, although it's by no means bad, and I haven't used it but judging by it being rare I'm going to assume rotom is not too great either, with 4mss making it worse. Torn-T interests me and seems highly customisable too, but I haven't tried it out yet so I won't comment on it.
 

Finchinator

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Alright, this is my final warning. Anything from here on out that falls in to this category will be deleted and probably infracted.

STOP DISCUSSING POKEMON THAT ARE NOT VIABLE (i.e: Empoleon)

We tried to give people the privilege to discuss new things that might have previously been overlooked, got new moves that would make them viable, or became relevant upon new metagame trends forming, but it clearly did not go well and there is no longer a place for discussion of unranked Pokemon in this thread -- I have said this before multiple times now and I expect it to completely stop from here on out as there are plenty of better things to post about in this thread.
 
If we are talking about checking Naganadel, I think there are a few Pokémon which may help with this task.


Not sure why people keep saying that you need either AV Tyranitar or Heatran when AV Magearna —a perfectly viable set— can work just as fine, especially thanks to its dual typing which deters Z-Draco.

+2 252 SpA Naganadel Fire Blast vs. 200 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Magearna: 206-244 (58.6 - 69.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

With just a tiny bit of chip damage (maybe through Tapu Koko’s Volt Switch or similar means), it can strike down the UB with a Fleur Cannon.

56 SpA Magearna Fleur Cannon vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Naganadel: 237-279 (82.5 - 97.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO



Similarly to the other metallic fairies, it is immune to the opponent’s STAB options. And, with a bit of defensive investment, it can survive an unboosted Fire Blast and KO back with Play Rough.


It needs to keep its Disguise intact to succeed, but you can potentially destroy Naganadel with a Let’s Snuggle Forever. VoltTurn support could help bringing in this Pikaclone safely.


Afraid of taking a full-powered Z-Draco? Then what about snapping this attack’s power in half with a Misty Terrain? Bonus points if you succeed in making it waste its Z-Move by switching in at the most appropriate time, maybe with the help of a lure.

Just beware of opposing terrains (especially Psychic Terrain) and Sludge Wave (which you could intercept by pairing Tapu Fini with a Steel-type).

---

With this said, I’m still not sure whether to consider Naganadel broken or not. However, it’s very well possible to handle it in different ways than hastily slapping a quick fix in the form of AV Tyranitar, Heatran or Trick Room. Some forgotten sets can be imbued new life in this still wild metagame, while still being relevant against other current threats.
 
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Do you just not see how your entire "stance" is, 'play around it immaculately and you'll be fine'?

We know it's not impossible to deal with. But stating essentially "look, it's 2hko'd 100% of the time, but can kill it as long as it's chipped down/your Disguise is intact and you have (lol really) Let's Snuggle Forever/Die in the name of halving its Dragon STAB" doesn't change the fact that it puts a metric shit ton of pressure on you if you have any of these Pokemon, and wins if those exact situations are not set up for you.

That is the issue.
If you so much as make one wrong move, you don't have AV TTar, SpDef mTar or SpDef Tran, or your opponent doesn't play Naga like a chimpanzee, you lose. That isn't healthy.

There's Pokemon that apply pressure to your opponent, then there's this thing which forces you into a corner and bends you in half the second you give it the slightest chance.
 
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You don't just have to design your team to play around Naganadel though. There's always been Pokémon you need to think of when building a team. Pokémon that you need answers to should they come up. Tapu Lele, Landorus, Toxapex, Tapu Koko, Greninja, Magearna, etc. And you also need ways to beat Stall, Rain, Trick Room, etc. You could go on.
I don't buy into the "pressure on team building" argument. Adapt your team according to what the biggest threats are.

I think what should be the biggest factor for whether it's too broken is whether it can be beaten or not. Marshadow couldn't be beaten. Genesect and Pheromosa were too versatile to be reliably beaten. But Naganadel is predictable and can be beaten.

I think it's getting a lot of use because of hype (as well as being good), but it may die down if we wait a bit.

And to talk about something else:

Is Mega Lopunny now better with the Power Up Punch set? Or is Fake Out/Return/High Jump Kick/Ice Punch still preferred? I've only really used the latter.
 
You don't just have to design your team to play around Naganadel though. There's always been Pokémon you need to think of when building a team. Pokémon that you need answers to should they come up. Tapu Lele, Landorus, Toxapex, Tapu Koko, Greninja, Magearna, etc. And you also need ways to beat Stall, Rain, Trick Room, etc. You could go on.
I don't buy into the "pressure on team building" argument. Adapt your team according to what the biggest threats are.

I think what should be the biggest factor for whether it's too broken is whether it can be beaten or not. Marshadow couldn't be beaten. Genesect and Pheromosa were too versatile to be reliably beaten. But Naganadel is predictable and can be beaten.

I think it's getting a lot of use because of hype (as well as being good), but it may die down if we wait a bit.

And to talk about something else:

Is Mega Lopunny now better with the Power Up Punch set? Or is Fake Out/Return/High Jump Kick/Ice Punch still preferred? I've only really used the latter.
Indeed Naganadel can be beaten but so could Mega Metagross or Pheromosa for that matter, then there's also the fact that teams that obviously rely on tran/ttar/PHYSICALLY OFFENSIVE EMPOLEON will clearly go in on naga to check it, with a simple double into say for example cm keldeo, one of my current favorite sets to use, and naga just allowed ur keldeo to possibly sweep or weaken down the team for naga itself to sweep later. It is pretty obvious that Naganadel is overcentralizing, even tho its not versatile at all the simple 1 set it has is so effective and consistent that it simply does its job way too well, this is why naganadel should be banned in my opinion.

Also yes, PuP/Encore/HJK/Frustration is the best set for lopunny but encore and fake out are interchangable depending on what ur team needs.
 
Lele, Landorus, Koko, Ninja, and Magearna also don't require a select couple Pokemon to carry sub optimal sets in order to be checked/countered. They can also be revenge killed.

Your argument's foundation is a false equivalency. You're comparing apples to oranges.

Pheomosa could also be beaten, Landorus I could be beaten, Marshadow could be beaten, I have no clue where this idea that it was game, set, and match the second Marshadow was thrown out comes from.

It's not a matter of whether it can be beaten, it's the measures needed to be taken in order to beat it. Which, time and time again, you neglect in an attempt to over simplify the issue.

Thank you, let's stop the Naga talk. Everything stated has been on the cusp of depressing from the "anti-ban" side.
 
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I have no clue where this idea that it was game, set, and match the second Marshadow was thrown out comes from.
I just want to clarify that I meant nothing was definitely safe to switch into it because of the unresisted STABs.

Another topic: is Kartana actually a viable defogger in this meta? It threatens switches I guess, giving it an opportunity. But wouldn't you rather use that opportunity to Swords Dance or Substitute? Do you give up a coverage move for Defog?
 
Anyone here tried band kartana it's been working well for me with knock off being able to weaken things like zap and celest and fighting/steel/grass coverage isn't that bad it really hurts if you can get the predictions right on it
 
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