I don't think Moltres is good at all. It's just too weak to SR, and since you can't guarantee it won't be up 100% of the time, you can't guarantee Moltres will handle it. If +2 CC did like 40-45%, it'd be relevant, but it really isn't since that's not so.
Physical Lucario has better counters. But Moltres is one of the few that handles both physical and special lucario extremely well.
+2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Moltres: 147-174 (38.2 - 45.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Moltres: 310-365 (80.7 - 95%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
If Rocks are down, Moltres *technically* counters both physical and special Lucario with the same set. Very very few pokemon have this honor. As long as you keep the rocks off the field, Moltres can switch into any Lucario variant (without Stone Edge) and come out on top.
If you slap on a Choice Scarf, 252/0 Moltres lives through all of Lucario's non-boosted attacks (except Stone Edge) and outspeeds & KOs with 100% accurate Flamethrower.
Wobbuffet @ Leftovers
Ability: Shadow Tag
EVs: 252 Def / 252 HP / 4 SDef
Bold Nature
- Counter
- Mirror Coat
- Encore
- Safeguard / Destiny Bond / Tickle
DIE LUKE.
252 Atk Mega Lucario Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Wobbuffet: 190-224 (32.5 - 38.3%) -- 1.9% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 Atk Mega Lucario Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Wobbuffet: 378-446 (64.7 - 76.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
You all know how this works, Counter the attack, OHKO. Can't by OHKOd by +2 Crunch even with SR.
Fin.
+2 252 SpA Mega Lucario Dark Pulse vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Wobbuffet: 572-674 (97.9 - 115.4%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
If you switch into a Nasty Plot, you lose.
I know this topic is focusing on the academic "what breaks Swords Dance Luke"... but honestly... for a lot of teams, you have one turn to decide whether or not Luke is a Sp. Attacker or Physical Attacker. If you guess wrong, your team gets swept.
So from a perspective of "what is useful to me", knowing about sets like Moltres, which can theoretically handle both physical and special lucario at the same time, is quite useful.