Okay, so I'm trying to catch a Mewtwo with enough speed to always outrun base 125 speed Pokemon. After checking the stats, I figure that a wild Mewtwo at lv70 will need a speed stat of at least 222 (+speed nature, 22 speed IV) in order to accomplish this, so I grabbed an Electrode with 221 speed and have placed him in the front of my party as my one-under guy.
Assuming a 16% chance for a +speed nature and a 31% chance for a 22+ IV, it seems I should have a 5% chance of encountering a Mewtwo fast enough to meet this criteria. However, I have soft-resetted at least 500 times over the course of several weeks, and not once have I encountered a Mewtwo that could outspeed this Electrode.
So before I pick Fire Red back up to try again, I was wondering if anybody could answer the following:
1) Are my calculations/probabilities off?
2) Is there perhaps something screwy going on with the RNG that is diminishing my chances?
3) Or do I just have the worst luck ever?