Can someone explain to me why Tulowitzski is projected to do so well? I know he's a great player but it is pretty much inevitable that there will be an injury of some sort because it has happens pretty much every season.
Guess I'll take a stab. Tulo is projected to do well because of the following reason/strategy:
One of the best things going for Tulo is that the number of fantasy elite short stops is almost non-existent. This isn't like OF or 1B or SP which is riddled with talent and value up and down the board. The SS position this year is pretty offensively challenged. Just like when you calculate war, fantasy value is not about who puts up the best numbers in a season regardless of position. It's more determined by the value a player puts up compared to replacement value (determined by the quality of FA in the league) at their position. And, as it turns out, there is a massive gap between Tulo and other shortstops. At the top of the SS rakings, you have Tulo, HanRam, Reyes, and Desmond. Everyone on that list besides Desmond has a track record of injuries, so you aren't assuming any more additional risk in taking Tulo. And we are pretty safe to say that Tulo is a more dynamic player than Hanley or Reyes given the same amount of playing time. Tulo's only real competition is Ian Desmond, because Desmond puts up high quality numbers and can do it without a heightened risk of injury. To get a better sense of this, lets look more in depth at the actual value of Tulo last last year compared to Desmond. I'll also throw in another "sleeper" pick in Bogaerts who went for a good number of dollars last year.
Tulo (91): .340 AVG/21 HR/52 RBI/71 R/1 SB
Desmond (154): .255 AVG/24 HR/91 RBI/73 R/24 SB
Bogaerts (144): .240 AVG/12 HR/46 RBI/60 R/2 SB
Desmond obviously has a better stat line than Tulowitzki, but they're pretty comparable in a lot of stats even with Desmond playing in 63 more games. And compared to someone who was in the lower tier like Xander, Tulo has done significantly better even in half a year. However, these stats are somewhat deceiving. If you are a good fantasy owner, you are not going to let your SS position go unfilled the days when Tulo is on the DL. You're going to replace him with someone of replacement value on the bench or you are going to draft someone as "Tulo Insurance" to pair with him on the days that he is hurt. Last year in my ESPN league where I had Tulo, I picked up Danny Santana as my backup SS from FA. (I also had Lowrie, but lets go with just Santana for the math) Danny's stat line last year was:
Santana(101): .319 AVG/7 HR/40 RBI/70 R/ 20 SB
That's okay numbers but not great. However, remember we are not using him unless Tulo is hurt. Halving these numbers will give us about a full season worth of SS production between Tulo and Danny filling in the games Tulo can't play. So lets do that.
Santana (55): .319 AVG/4 HR/20 RBI/35 R/10 SB
And then add them to Tulo's value...
Tulo + Replacement Value Production (146 games): .332 AVG/25 HR/72 RBI/106 R/11 SB
Comparing that to Desmond or anyone elses stat line from last year, you can make an argument that this is the better option.
In summary, Tulo's health is as questionable as anyone else in the upper tiers besides Desmond. If Tulo is healthy for close to a full year this year, he should wreck Desmonds total production. And if he is hurt for a good portion of the year like he has been, the ungodly numbers he will put up combined with replacement level FA talent will still give you an elite performance in a very very shallow position. Obviously if Tulo is going for $15 more than Desmond, you'd go with Desmond. But if Tulo is going for $27 and Desmond is going for $23 like they are projected? It's a lot easier risk to assume when it's just $4 difference.
To be fair, we mentioned that this strategy is less beneficial in head to head formats because you are trying to win a week at a time, instead of standard formats when you are taking a years worth of averages. This is true, but my argument is that in the weeks where Tulo is healthy he can provide massive comparative upside and carry the week. And in the weeks he is hurt, the replacement value SS is not that much worse than other SS like Xander, Starlin, or Alexi to kill you. Plus there is no guarantee that this year Desmond or any other alternative is going to stay healthy, so it's not like it's a "safer" bet to take Desmond. With Tulo and injuries, your SS value is still elite. With Desmond and injuries, it's average.
Hope that makes sense.