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Discussion in 'Pokémetrics' started by DougJustDoug, Jul 8, 2010.
flygon has been more common than dragonite
Yet Dragonite will be at top 11, but not Flygon.
Trust me, I'm a psychic. And white.
Hopefully the stats will come later today. I think Dragonite will soar in usage, because Dragonite is the coolest Dragon in the game. Cooler than your stupid Scarfgons and Faildras. Though I didn't like the Mence ban, I think Nite is going to go up a lot (~12), while Flygon will struggle to make top 15.
Koko hit the Heatran on the head, I'd be damn suprised if Heatran wasn't over 30%, I must have seen a Heatran on every team for the last 20 battles. Maybe the odd one that didn't....
On another note, I'm contributing to Blissey's August usage! YEAHHH.
GO Blissey GO!
Blissey is great now, Spreads status, beats 99% of special attackers, etc.
Also, is there a lot of Zapdos on the ladder or is it me? Seems like an awful lot of Zapdos (which is bad, as my team is Zap weak!!).
Yeah it seems that a lot of people's teams are Zapdos weak, resulting in its usage going up. Heatran, Starmie, Shaymin, Dragonite, Flygon and possibly Vaporeon's usage will go up. (in my opinion) all these lovely F/W/G cores <3
Heatran will be way higher than 24%. Every other team runs a frickin Heatran/Shaymin/Suicune core, and if they don't, their teams most likely started with it and kept Heatran after some changes.
On a side note, I'm very interested in seeing Colbur Berry usage stats for Azelf. Because the more Colbur gets used, the less effective it's going to be, which could mean back to the drawing board for me.
I used to run offensive Zapdos, but I realized that I needed a way to stop DD Gyara/Dragonite and the best way for me to stop them would be Jolteon seeing it can outspeed most of them after one DD.
You guys are forgetting Salamence was only removed from the ladder for about a third of the month, so accurate changes to the metagame won't be until August stats. And 30% for Heatran is insane, don't let the suspect ladder stats fool you, I really doubt it will ever top 25%.
You don't need to look at the suspect ladder stats....just play considerably on the standard ladder. It doesn't take long to see the trends.
There is little reason not to run Heatran, it can be customized to pretty much whatever you want and the resistances it brings are invaluable. People are either using Heatran, or taking advantage of its presence as much as they can.
Gyarados lure, Swampert trapper, Resttalker for a stall team, check to alot of threats with a Scarf, effective lead, the list could go on.
Would there be a way for Doug to isolate the post-Mence stats so we could get an accurate picture of the meta?
The usage of Heatran ladder-wide is I suspect much lower than the usage of Heatran in the upper half (or 10%) of it. On the LB his usage probably looks like it does in suspect, but I'd bet that will be dampened by the lower players who are usually much slower to react.
There's a lot of fear of stall around too, and since certain more defensive Zapdoses rip a lot of stall members apart I'm unsurprised to see him on his way up (really the only common things on stall that can force Zap out are Bliss, Scarftar, and some Rotom). A team that has some way to eliminate Blissey and a defensive Zapdos is already doing pretty decent against most stall.
I would agree with you, I don't think heatran will surge from 22% to well over 30%. I would reckon may be around 25 or 26%. As with Dragonite, may be in the top 15, It takes a bit of time for the metagame to really change.
Yes but Heatran did all of this prior to Salamence, was just as good of a pokemon and just as easy to fit on teams. Other than hype for the F/W/G core, I'm really not seeing how Mence's removal has enough impact for such a huge surge in Heatran usage, especially when people are just running Dragonite who outspeeds and OHKOs in the same fashion (and even has an easier time switching in).
Well, Salamence's removal is actually the reason why Heatran's usage has increased. Platinum is what caused Heatran usage to decrease mainly because of Scizor getting Bullet Punch. Scarf Heatran was the most used revenge killer in the early days of DP IIRC and the fact that it cannot take down Salamence after a DD (another threat that was introduced with Platinum) is another reason why I think it's usage decreased. With Salamence banned, most players will not feel the need to pack as many Steel- types onto their teams and will opt for a F(Heatran)/W/G core. As for Dragonite, it is completely outclassed by Salamence because of it's higher Speed, higer SpAtk and Intimidate as an ability, so the increase in Heatran usage wasn't a huge surprise, at least in my opinion.
Whilst this is mostly true, a significant amount of Heatran sets are hard countered by Dragonite whereas they could muscle their way through Salamence with the help of Stealth Rock. I can't see how Salamence would directly contribute much to a rise in Heatran usage, if at all.
Scarftran Fire Blast vs 0/0 Naive Salamence (the most used) 39.6% - 46.8% : 2HKO after rocks so it can't switch in
Scarftran Fire Blast vs 0/0 Adamant Dragonite (least bulky DD set) 30.3% - 35.9% : never 2HKO after rocks
Unboosted Dragon Pulse vs 0/0 Naive Salamence 79.8% - 94.3% : OHKO after rocks meaning 1 on 1 Heatran comes out on top with a Shuca Berry / Scarf, or any set that predicts the switch. It also forces Salamence to attack.
Unboosted Dragon Pulse vs 0/0 Adamant Dragonite 61.3% - 72.4% : Never OHKO after rocks meaning that 1 on 1 you are ALWAYS beating it bar an Explosion.
I mean...Yes Salamence punishes Heatran to an extent if it can get in, but it isn't as though Dragonite isn't going to punish them almost equally.
The fact that most Dragonite tend to carry some bulk and in alot of cases, Leftovers, adds to its ability to hard counter most Heatran.
I can't speak for everyone, but the fact that Dragonite can set up multiple Dragon Dances easily has always made it much harder to face for me than Salamence ever was when Heatran was on a team of mine.
Summary - Heatran doesn't have an 'easier' time without Salamence. If you look at the domino effect of usage of other Pokes that Salamence's ban would have definetely caused though e.g. more Breloom, then yes Heatran usage may well have indirectly increased because of Salamence's ban.
EDIT: I am not intending to turn this into some sort of Dragonite vs Salamence debate, I am giving my opinions on Heatran usage and how I feel it has been affected (if at all) by the bans.
Salamence's ban will play some part in its usage increasing of course, but what I'm saying is that it's not enough to raise Heatran usage from 22% > 30% like some people were suggesting. What I meant with Dragonite is that it's simply replacing Salamence in many ways and threatens Heatran just as much (if not more) as Ghost said, so the metagame hasn't changed drastically for Heatran in that regard.
If anything, it's the increase in Grass/Fire/Water cores (Fire Blast, Earth Power, HP Grass/Electric/Toxic/Explosion) and lack of Latias that is promoting Heatran usage.
I'm interested in seeing how many Dragonite start running Jolly. With Salamence and Latias gone, it can invest in speed without being outclassed or revenged, respectively.
FWG has nothing to do with it. Heatran is top tier OU because OU needs Fire types. Infernape and Heatran are the only two really viable Fire types for the standard metagame and Heatran has both the power and bulk to do what Infernape can't, so it's naturally going to be used more between the two.
If anything it's the other way around. People have a Heatran and a bulky water on their team and say "hey 2/3 of a FWG core, let's get some Celebi action in here."