After looking at the PID on Pokecheck it matches up with the PID on frame 97 which is the same as 96 but Defence comes from the female. So I guess I'm lucky that my random Drilbur had high Defence.
Interestingly it says Drilbur's special attack is 13 not 11. So Metal Kid must be wrong! Or probably just the numbers I put in.
You can't get a 100% accurate outcome if your Pokémon isn't at level 100.