The element of surprise

Jamiroquai

Jamiroquai

How much do you value the element of suprise ? I'm not talking unsual sets, simply the suprise factor; as simple as an expert belt bluff, to an entire game facade (not the move) of hiding which poke your going to sweep with.

In a metagame that's largely standardised in the terms of set, ev's spreads etc, surely suprise is the optimum to sucess. In the famous words of Sun Tzu: "A side effect of my low strongs is that they create a 'baseline expectation' of what I'm going to do. The sneaky roundhouse I do after the 17th low strong is pretty tricky, actually. I mean, wouldn't you expect an 18th low strong after the 17th one? (Note: I was actually even more sneaky, by doing the 18th low strong, then the low roundhouse.)".

A standard, predictable player is one the easiest to play, as you can formulate plans and build around the straight forward readble gameplay of the opposition. But what of a suprise, a kink in the works. The unexpected is always the hardest to prepare for, after all, it's unexpected. For this example I'm going to use Cloyster.

Cloyster, in general, runs Shell Smash or support. Upon seeing Cloyster, this is what you expect, as it's what's he is best at, and other pokes far surpass him at everything else. But what of Choice Scarf Cloyster ? I tell you, the amount of people caught out by it as it's unexpected and such a huge suprise is unreal. I've switched into Tornadus-T before, and OKHO'd with icicle spear. The first time I did this, I got the message 'WTF HOW?'. He simply presummed I'd use a Shell smash, or an even more unlikely circumstance, a support move. He presumed a Hurricane would KO me and it would be an easy kill. The simple element of suprise, something he didn't account or compinsate for, or even cross his mind, caused him a loss of a poke, which was avoidable.

This is only an example, it can be applied to any situation. Doing something random provides a reworking of a plan. If you've watched The Dark Knight (Batman), part of the Joker's holiwood style chaotic success came through unpredictablility, all be it rather more subtly and lying on the rather ill assumption of the Gothem police force. The point being, every kink in a plan requires it to be reworked and can often give you a large advantage.

So all I ask is how do you value the element of suprise ? Is it worth carrying a few unknown entities amongst your team in order to keep the oppoenent guessing, at the cost of something proven to be more effective & reliable. Often suprises come at the cost of effectiveness, so once the secrets revealed, your left with something lesser than what it could have been. Yet played right, the suprise could give a huge advantage.

This isn't about wierd & wonderful sets, only the element of suprise and your value of it.

-To mods, I used the search function several times to no avail. This isn't about wierd & wonderufl sets, it's simply about how people value suprise, something I felt didn't have a place in the metagame thread. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I couldn't find anything else on this.
 
Not entirely sure why you keep repeating "this isn't about weird & wonderful sets" since the element of surprised relies on rarely used/unorthodox movesets like mirror coat deo-s or choice band arceus.
 
I consider surprise to be more of an added bonus to an already effective tactic. Expert belt landorus is an example, it is effective even after your bluff is discovered (although not as effective).
 
I think we all know the value of a surprise kill in a game especially against offensively driven teams like volt-turn. Surprise moves are also great ways to get some momentum in battle such as reflect type starmie which is basically a guaranteed spin however often many players overdo the surprise which results in ineffective pokemon. I have to agree with Gamerno1 that you shouldn't rely on it, it should just be "an added bonus". Surprise moves must be carefully selected so they aren't deadweight such as on my Tornadus-t who had superpower over focus blast to hit Ttar. it is still powered up by LO and gives you the fighting coverage. Another thing i find with surprise sets is that they are often very predictable i.e if someone is bringing there TTar in on my Ferrothorn it is obviously running fire blast or superpower. With the cloyster example you just gave if i had my Latios for instance which was clearly not scarfed and you had the confidence to bring him in i am going to assume you either run Scarf or Ice Shard and if i am above 70% health i would just assume that it is scarfed. What i am trying to say is that people don't make the slightest attempt to hide or set up their surprise move which can end up being very predictable. anyway just my 2 cents
 
considering in UU I almost always use zoroark on every single one of my teams I'd say I value surprise a lot :P However, there's definitely a fine line between a set that's surprising and a set that's just plain stupid. Ex: using a choice banded linoone is a good idea vs using a choice banded blissey is a bad idea. You can't just be surprising, you have to be surprising and effective which kinda ties into the whole "added bonus" idea .-.

and about the whole "wierd and wonderful sets" thing. I think he just meant that we should not be ranting and raving about how good set A on Pokemon B is. Stayin on topic and such
 
CrackinSkulls said:
I think we all know the value of a surprise kill in a game especially against offensively driven teams like volt-turn. Surprise moves are also great ways to get some momentum in battle such as reflect type starmie which is basically a guaranteed spin however often many players overdo the surprise which results in ineffective pokemon. I have to agree with Gamerno1 that you shouldn't rely on it, it should just be "an added bonus". Surprise moves must be carefully selected so they aren't deadweight such as on my Tornadus-t who had superpower over focus blast to hit Ttar. it is still powered up by LO and gives you the fighting coverage. Another thing i find with surprise sets is that they are often very predictable i.e if someone is bringing there TTar in on my Ferrothorn it is obviously running fire blast or superpower. With the cloyster example you just gave if i had my Latios for instance which was clearly not scarfed and you had the confidence to bring him in i am going to assume you either run Scarf or Ice Shard and if i am above 70% health i would just assume that it is scarfed. What i am trying to say is that people don't make the slightest attempt to hide or set up their surprise move which can end up being very predictable. anyway just my 2 cents
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Surprise sets aren't meant to be predictable. This isn't a surprise set, no one would switch a Tyranitar on a Ferrothorn trying to catch the opponent by surprise. You are just telling that you are using Fire Blast or Superpower. If you want to surprise, you never switch-in a Pokémon that otherwise has a disvantage against the opponent.

If you switch a Starmie on a Ferrothorn, it's clear that Starmie has Hidden Power Fire, otherwise your opponent would never be fool enough to do this, but if you do, the surprise is spoiled. You can still surprise your opponent, in a reverse manner, however; if Starmie switches on Ferrothorn, you can make appear that Starmie has Hidden Power Fire. If your opponent switches out fearing this, you can destroy your opponent as long as you don't reveal the fourth moveslot. When your opponent realizes that you don't have Hidden Power Fire, at least one of their Pokémon was OHKOed by Starmie. But Ferrothorn at full health can survive Hidden Power Fire; so this tatic doesn't always work.

As others said, Expert Belt is one of best items to surprise your opponent. I've always used Mamoswine with Expert Belt. It's coverage is so great, that you can effectively use Expert Belt without problems; most people expect a Choice Band, so, when I have OHKOed that Dragonite with Ice Shard, they switch Heatran expecting to be a Choice Band, as there wasn't Life Orb recoil. At this point, Heatran is destroyed by Earthquake if it isn't using Air Ballon or Choice Scarf.

I love using Expert Belt with common users of Choice Band or Choice Specs, but not Choice Scarf. As Expert Belt doesn't boost Speed, if I'm going to check/revenge kill a threat that can kill me unless I outspeed him, without the extra Speed I am just going to be killed as normal. That's why I never liked using Landorus with Expert Belt: as said in his analysis in Smogon: While they must be careful not to come in on the wrong attack, Latios, Starmie, and Gengar all resist at least one of Landorus's moves and will force him out thanks to their superior Speed and huge Special Attack stats. In either situation that you are locked on an attack that can't kill them, or you are using Expert Belt, you are forced out. That's why I think that Expert Belt is more effective at faking Choice Band or Specs, not Scarf; unless you are expecting your opponent to switch out fearing being outsped and killed.

The problem with surprise is that sometimes you have to use gimmicky sets/moves to surprise your opponent, and that these gimmicky sets/moves are situtional. The above example of Starmie with Hidden Power is a example of this, as you are using Hidden Power Fire practically only against Ferrothorn and Scizor. Most other threats are already covered by Hydro Pump, even those that are weak to Fire.
 
Splendiferous said:
Not entirely sure why you keep repeating "this isn't about weird & wonderful sets" since the element of surprised relies on rarely used/unorthodox movesets like mirror coat deo-s or choice band arceus.
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Well, because it's not. The threads not about sets at all, it's about the Value of suprise, that's it. Using sets as examples is the easiest way to explain. Like has already been said, a Expert belt-choice bluff isn't a wierd set, but is a simple basis of suprise.

I'm not sure how you can say suprise is predictable, because that's a complete oxymoron. With the Cloyster example, it's a double edge sword. If you think it's scarf'd, by all means switch. But what If I'm actually a normal SS ? Obviously I don't and won't just switch in willy nilly, I wait for an ideal oppotunity for the suprise where I think it will work, that's if I'm even looking for a suprise at all.

There's always an element of the unknown in any match, not knowing opposing sets on the pokes means there's always going to be a certain low level suprise. I'm not talking OMFG I NEVER SAW THAT COMING, but the fact your uncertain on sets, you can make a predicition as to what it may be, but you can never be 100% on all 6 pokes from the team preview.
 
I don't really understand your example about Cloyster. For one thing, Cloyster usually carries a Sash, so it's stupid of your opponent to throw in Tornadus-T blindly or even keep it in against you.

I also agree with Gamerno1, most of the time surprise is basically just using a good set at a weird time or against a weird pokemon. Surprise sets are usually very situational and often not as effective as the regular sets those pokemon can carry; Cloyster's Shell Smash set will forever be stronger than a scarfed set, and Starmie has better options that carrying HP fire for each specific Ferrothorn. I still recommend sticking to the sets posted on the site, because if they weren't high quality, they wouldn't be there.
 
I like utilizing Scarf Latias, and revenge-killing stuff like +2 Dragonite. It's a big surprise, since opponents keep their +2 Dragonite in to kill Latias with Outrage, but get outsped and killed.
 
The way i use surprises is by letting my opponent overpredict. You know stay in when your opponent least expect it and then use an unexpected move.
Example: Roserade vs tyranitar with hidden power ice.

I won countless of matches with unexpected moves.

In the words of Electrolyte- I predict that you will predict me predicting your overprediction.
 
Electrolyte said:
I don't really understand your example about Cloyster. For one thing, Cloyster usually carries a Sash, so it's stupid of your opponent to throw in Tornadus-T blindly or even keep it in against you.

I also agree with Gamerno1, most of the time surprise is basically just using a good set at a weird time or against a weird pokemon. Surprise sets are usually very situational and often not as effective as the regular sets those pokemon can carry; Cloyster's Shell Smash set will forever be stronger than a scarfed set, and Starmie has better options that carrying HP fire for each specific Ferrothorn. I still recommend sticking to the sets posted on the site, because if they weren't high quality, they wouldn't be there.
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If cloysters running a sash it'll get smashed by SR. Cloyster was only an example, and so far it's worked for me. Seeing as the set's not listed on Smogon, people arn't always aware to it. Seeing as a I run Magnezone, chucking a Steel in would allow me to trap it & kill (Magnezone's set-up simply to kill other Steel's).

I disagree entirely. How does expert belt bluff work then? I'm not talking about running crazy stes at all. I'm simply talking about the value of any type of suprise. It can even be making a double switch. I'm not talking about keeping some random unusual set on your team at all. By suprise i mean 'Oh, I didn't expect that'. Maybe you choose not to use Flamethrower on that Roserade with Ttar, but instead try to bluff that you don't have it. Then when Ferrothorn switches in thinking (he doesn;t ahve flamethrower, he aint using it on Roserade), and you predict, nailing the flying saucer for a 2HKO. That's a real crued example, as Roserade would stay in, but I'm just trying to show examples of what I mean.

Sure, having wierd sets is one of the biggest ways to suprise, but that;s not what this thread is about, I just wanted to know peoples opinions on suprise and whether they sometimes try to play with a small element of it to gain an advantage.
 
In my opinion mew is one of the most surprising pokemon you can get. While I am sure we are all aware of mew's vast move pool, you rarely see anything else outside of the stall breaker version. So because of the lack of other mews on the ladder, when you do see a mew that isn't the stall break version, like nasty plot or baton pass, you don't play against it correctly, and especially against nasty plot and baton pass, one bad played move against it can lose you games.
 
Dukewarrior13 said:
The way i use surprises is by letting my opponent overpredict. You know stay in when your opponent least expect it and then use an unexpected move.
Example: Roserade vs tyranitar with hidden power ice.

I won countless of matches with unexpected moves.

In the words of Electrolyte- I predict that you will predict me predicting your overprediction.
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Assuming you're Tyranitar, that makes no sense. Hidden Power Ice would do even less damage than, say, Stone Edge, or Crunch, because of Roserade's vastly superior special defense and Tyranitar's inferior special attack.
 
Tyranitar is a Pokemon I myself feel will always carry a surprise. Its movesets and move pool allow it to nab many kills and a shaky hand without previous scouting, it has crunch, but does it carry pursuit. Ice beam but will it carry fire blast as well. This thread falls more on a weird, but effective thread line.
 
Bynine said:
Assuming you're Tyranitar, that makes no sense. Hidden Power Ice would do even less damage than, say, Stone Edge, or Crunch, because of Roserade's vastly superior special defense and Tyranitar's inferior special attack.
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and tyranitar learns ice beam

I think he's talking about using Roserade's HP ice against tyranitar because lol why would you do that. You could surprise your opponent with how stupid that move was
 
I'm not sure if this really works with the thread, (since it's pretty hard to tell exactly what this thread is about anyways) but sometimes for a surprise I'll use lower tier pokemon that perform better in OU than they do in their own tier, and often I find that many OU players may not know exactly how to deal with them, for example, Darmanitan is a huge threat even in OU, and performs better in OU than UU because of how much more common bulky waters are in UU than OU.
 
This thread is very interesting, congrats for making it!

On to the topic now... From what i know, the best players abuse the hell out of the surprise factor, and is one of the main reasons that they are so good(the players). As someone above me has already mentioned, not trying to hit a poke with a move that would otherwise do very good damage (ohko/2hko f.e) and instead switching out of it, acting as you are helpless against it, leads the opponent to a false feeling of safety. Every time you repeat this, the opponent gets more and more trapped into this illusion, and it becomes more difficult for him to avoid it. When you believe that your opponent is completely trapped in the illusion and that he feels completely safe, you unleash your surprise, gaining a huge advantage (if the advantage isn't huge/big, then the surprise is not worth all the trouble you did to set it up). And because this technique(surprise) gives such big benefits and requires a lot of set-up (against good players), mostly good players use it. This technique also requires you to be able to understand the psychology of your opponent when you make every move that sets-up your illusion. By the way this technique can go both ways... You can either pretend that your attacking pokemon cannot threaten the defending pokemon, OR that your defending pokemon cannot threaten the offensive pokemon.

For example if i switch out my Tyranitar against a Ferrothorn, that i could have killed with Fire Blast, and the Ferro is also paired with Terrakion, and then i bring in my Scarf Jirachi the are 2 assumptions that the opponet would make, depending on his skill level. He can assume that my Jirachi has Fire Punch, and that my Tyranitar doesn't have a fire move(low skill player). OR he can assume that i, predicting his thought of bringing in Terrakion to threaten my Ttar, would have brought in my Scarf Jirachi to get a surprise kill on his Terrakion, while also bluffing that Ttar doesn't have Fire Blast(high skill player). So in the first case i would get an easy kill, while in the second case, i would get a fail, because my opponent would switch-out his Terrakion from Jirachi, and go to his Ferrothorn again, which would proceed to set-up on me. So this shows that if you want to use the surprise factor against skilled opponents, you must do a lot of set-up, or else your illusion will be easily foiled. And this is why skilled players are the ones that abuse this technique the best.

Anyway, tl;dr, the surprise element is one of the best and more effective ways to win and gain a big advantage in a battle, in such a standardized metagame as OU, and because of this, it is a technique that requires a lot of thought and planning process to be effective and is one of the best weapons in the hands of a skilled player.

Here is a simple, yet effective, surprise method i have been using in the team in my sig. I was using a STANDARD HP Fire Shaymin, in a RAIN TEAM. So while usually if i want to kill any decent Scizor/Forretress player with HP Fire, i would have to switch out a lot of times in moments that it mattered, to somewhat convince them that i don't have HP Fire, in rain the number of times you have to do this, drops to half or even more. Many times, just a single switch-out from them is enough to give them the false feeling of safety.
 
another surprise thing is run a move like rapid spin or stealth rock on a choice scarf user so that they think you're not scarfed and then you go and revenge something easily (this is how you bluff scarf cloyster guys)
 
alexwolf said:
For example if i switch out my Tyranitar against a Ferrothorn, that i could have killed with Fire Blast, and the Ferro is also paired with Terrakion, and then i bring in my Scarf Jirachi the are 2 assumptions that the opponet would make, depending on his skill level. He can assume that my Jirachi has Fire Punch, and that my Tyranitar doesn't have a fire move(low skill player). OR he can assume that i, predicting his thought of bringing in Terrakion to threaten my Ttar, would have brought in my Scarf Jirachi to get a surprise kill on his Terrakion, while also bluffing that Ttar doesn't have Fire Blast(high skill player). So in the first case i would get an easy kill, while in the second case, i would get a fail, because my opponent would switch-out his Terrakion from Jirachi, and go to his Ferrothorn again, which would proceed to set-up on me. So this shows that if you want to use the surprise factor against skilled opponents, you must do a lot of set-up, or else your illusion will be easily foiled. And this is why skilled players are the ones that abuse this technique the best.
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That's why I could paralyze a Infernape with Ferrothorn when I predicted that they predicted that I would switch on a Water-type. You want to surprise your opponent, but then gets surprised. This is a good technique; don't make switches when they are going to be obvious. The problem is that once your opponent realizes that you act this way, they are going to make obvious things, expecting that you don't make the obvious.

ssbbm said:
another surprise thing is run a move like rapid spin or stealth rock on a choice scarf user so that they think you're not scarfed and then you go and revenge something easily (this is how you bluff scarf cloyster guys)
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The problem using this strategy is that if your opponent has a pokémon that you could otherwise destroy if you weren't locked on Rapid Spin, if they see you switching or realize that you aren't using other thing than Rapid Spin, then they will know that you are using a Choice item and your surprise is ruined.
 
ssbbm said:
another surprise thing is run a move like rapid spin or stealth rock on a choice scarf user so that they think you're not scarfed and then you go and revenge something easily (this is how you bluff scarf cloyster guys)
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This is a good thought, but in practise, it is very difficult to pull off vs a skilled player, because of one reason: Hold Item. Most spinners use Leftovers or LO, and this ruins everything. In your Cloyster example, i would bring in my Scarf Cloyster (let's say after something in my team dies) to spin the hazards that were up, and make my opponent think that i am not a Scarf variant. But how will i be able to bluff a support set, when i don't run Lefties, and my opponent clearly sees this after he bring in his check/counter?

Or if i want my opponent to think that my Scarf Starmie is not scarfed, how can i do this, when after i spin, the opponent sees neither Lefties nor LO?

With Stelth Rock this can be done much easier, as when you use a non-attacking move, and there are no hazards up, you can still bluff a LO/Lefties. But using SR on a choiced poke is usually not such a good move, and is more of a gimmick with the sole intend to surprise the opponent, which, as said before is not how a good surprise works. The surprise tool (be it a move, an item or a poke), must have other uses except from bluffing, 'cause otherwise it adds nothing to the team, when you don't manage to make the surprise work or to find the appropriate surprise target.
 
alexwolf said:
Or if i want my opponent to think that my Scarf Starmie is not scarfed, how can i do this, when after i spin, the opponent sees neither Lefties nor LO?
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They could also assume that you are using the Rain Dance Spinner set (with Damp Rock), but this doesn't work if you are using a non-Rain team. As this set is also rare, it's really hard to feign a non-Choice Scarf if you are using Rapid Spin. You can use an Expert Belt, but as far as I know, while Starmie coverage is great, it isn't good enough to be a good Expert Belt user, especially if you are using Rapid Spin; it's amazing effect aside, Rapid Spin is a poor move wich doesn't even hit anything super effectively.
 
I find it a semi-fine line between surprise sets and just gimmicky sets. I however admit I use the element of surprise very much through unorthodox sets.

One example I can bring up is EVs. I always try to add an extra 4 or even 8 EVs to the speed stat. This is a great way I find in countering counters who think they will out speed me by assuming I am using the common set. Many time it gets to the point where just an extra point in speed can help you. Also in going against other Pokemon with the same set adding extra EVs to speed or have a different nature is useful. This then can catch opponents off guard do to them miscalculating or not having to chance something with a speed tie.
 
I agree tha having unorthodox mon's, sets, items, etc. helps to fill a niche weakness for a team. Also, I think an Expert Belt bluff is easiest, and most effective, because if it an unorthodox Choice-item, then after the surprise, you might be screwed.
 
BattleStar said:
I find it a semi-fine line between surprise sets and just gimmicky sets. I however admit I use the element of surprise very much through unorthodox sets.

One example I can bring up is EVs. I always try to add an extra 4 or even 8 EVs to the speed stat. This is a great way I find in countering counters who think they will out speed me by assuming I am using the common set. Many time it gets to the point where just an extra point in speed can help you. Also in going against other Pokemon with the same set adding extra EVs to speed or have a different nature is useful. This then can catch opponents off guard do to them miscalculating or not having to chance something with a speed tie.
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Putting that extra EV on speed is VERY useful. Sometimes i´m on an Amoongus vs Amoongus situation and mine comes up on the top just because that extra EV in speed.

Back to the surprise factor talk i think it´s the key to success. Just because a set isn´t on site doesn´t mean you can´t use it. But if the pokemon you´re running is complete garbage after it has fulfilled it´s purpose then you might as well run the standard set.

Of course you can surprise your opponent using standard sets as well, because not all the standard sets are common. Choice scarf Landorus is common but what if you switch out in fear of being revenge killed only to give it a free turn to set up. What if you stay in with a Starmie against a non Choice scarf Magnezone to get a KO with hydro pump only to find out it has sturdy (a lesson learned the hard way). So yeah you can´t say being surprising isn´t useful
 
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