I'd have to go back and look at my posts regarding Earlio but iirc most of my reading on him was d1, when i was right to call him town. I didn't really pick up any shifts in Earlio d2 but thats probably because the general lack of posts d2 compared to d1 and the fact that I was fairly confident in my read on Earlio from d1. I didn't think he would be a good recruit target either.
I'm not sure what to think about Paperblade, I called Walrein's d1 absolute garbage but I'm not sure how that affects alignment, I'm liking his posts now though, so idk. Hard to notice any shifts when its a completely different person playing the slot too.
I'll have to reread the thread again, because I was on the Asek train with acidphoenix as another top suspect, but the result of the lynch makes that pretty clearly not the case, they could have been recruited last night but the top priority should be the original vampire.
I don't have a lot of time to analyze things atm, these are my initial thoughts.