Evasion: Hit or Miss?

[Every1XplodeNOW]

I would not participate in such a test, nor would I think of smogon as a credible competitive site either. Why must we involve even more luck into a game where luck is certainly dominant. We might like to think it isn't, but it is. Some noob can score a critical hit and freeze one of your pokemon to win the game. Knowing situations like this can occur, who in their right mind would want to instigate such luck? It may be part of the game, but DT/Minimize would be the downfall of true competitive pokemon.

Luck isn't dominant. I would say 70% is skill and 30% is luck. (I also think if evasion was allowed it would be 50-50) I mean when was the last time a test was done on evasion? Has there ever been one? I figure someone would test it to prove it is broken to us. Also critical hit and freeze are random which is evasion is not.

I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say evasion is controlled luck, which means, luck that is controlled by either opponent and if luck is not radomnized.

 

[Relictivity]

Does any of this help? I think this post has been largely ignored, and I don't think that's fair.

Roar is a counter to stat ups, Aromatherapy is a counter to status, etc. Evasion has its counters, these are 100%, only thing that stops it is a Taunt on the switch.

I for one think Haze alone is good enough to counter evasion, and several other things as well, but there are PLENTY of pokemon that can easily and with 100% chance counter evasion boosting as long as they aren't taunted on the switch (should be easy enough to prevent).

If the Evasion User is faster, and Taunts you, you lose. Really, the Evasion user has to have a good combo of Defenses and Speed, but there are some tanks that have this. And it is kind of pointless to run evasion without a Taunt, unless you're baton passing a Belly Drum, in which case one will do.

I am agreeing with Steeve here - Evasion is NOT COMPLETELY luck. You used a move to have a chance at dodging something, it's only right you get some reward, and that is other moves not being able to hit as much. So let's test it, though it probably will be to much. Because if there is at least SOME chance that the thing will be proved or disproved centralizing, than it is worth a test.

And SOME != a little.

 

[blasphemy1]

I would not think of smogon as a credible competitive site if they didn't do the test, for two reasons:
1. it is uncompetitive to ban things that are not broken.
2. You cannot determine if something is broken without testing it.

Also, lets say that you're right and evasion will destroy competitive battling, don't you think people would figure that out during the test and never again speak of unbanning evasion?

No I honestly don't, as smogon is considerate enough to let some people who don't know what is best for the metagame vote. An example would be Shaymin-S, but I won't get into that.

Yes, I do understand that this game is largely skill based, that is why I play it. However, one can't argue that it is infuriating to lose to someone when they just froze your last hope, or crit your sweeper one the second turn it was out. Even though you are in "control" of how many Double Teams you use, the results can be unpredictable, as probability could span out over several matches until you get more and more attacks in against an evasion user.

All I am saying is that when you have to resort to otherwise drastic moves(Haze-who uses that-.01% probability of appearing in a moveset according to X-Act), then you are changing the metagame too much. Don't bring up Lati@s, we already have to deal with Salamence, so the amount of steels present in OU is largely irrelevant to that case. I am just expressing my opinion here, what else is a thread like this for? You can take it or leave it, but that is just what I think.

 

[ViRiD]

No I honestly don't, as smogon is considerate enough to let some people who don't know what is best for the metagame vote. An example would be Shaymin-S, but I won't get into that.

Yes, I do understand that this game is largely skill based, that is why I play it. However, one can't argue that it is infuriating to lose to someone when they just froze your last hope, or crit your sweeper one the second turn it was out. Even though you are in "control" of how many Double Teams you use, the results can be unpredictable, as probability could span out over several matches until you get more and more attacks in against an evasion user.

All I am saying is that when you have to resort to otherwise drastic moves(Haze-who uses that-.01% probability of appearing in a moveset according to X-Act), then you are changing the metagame too much. Don't bring up Lati@s, we already have to deal with Salamence, so the amount of steels present in OU is largely irrelevant to that case. I am just expressing my opinion here, what else is a thread like this for? You can take it or leave it, but that is just what I think.

It sounds to me like you're being overly resistant to change. Yes, losing is frustrating, but believing that the only reason you would lose to a DT user is because of DT, then you are very, very wrong.

 

[blasphemy1]

It sounds to me like you're being overly resistant to change. Yes, losing is frustrating, but believing that the only reason you would lose to a DT user is because of DT, then you are very, very wrong.

Whoa? Hold on there. I think you have it all wrong. There is "good" change, then there is "bad" change. I am all for testing ANY reasonable pokemon for suspect, but I don't think Double Team deserves mention. It is my opinion, call me ignorant, but your petty support for Double Team becoming unbanned is never going to change that(my opinion).

BTW, how does missing with Ice Beam/Surf with your bulky water on that Gliscor who's Light Screen just wore off sound? It would be miserable, and although it is theorymon, it is a precaution I am going to take to prevent myself from being lured into a boring metagame. I thought the point of a competitive game was to ban the least amount of things within reason? Well, guess what? Unbanning Double Team opens the door for several pokemon/moves/combos to be banned. Memento+Reflect+Light Screen Uxie --> Rock Polish + DT Gliscor --> whatever sweeper you want. That would be two pokemon, possibly three if Latios becomes OU, but, yeah, your probably right...

EDIT: People need to calm down. This two sided debate isn't going to solve any qualms. I find it hilarious that one person can cause this much of a stir simply because they are on the opposite side of the topic...

 

[ViRiD]

A precaution so intense that you would ignorantly refuse to even test something? Testing does not mean implementation, and if anyone needs to calm down it is you.

Edit: Just to clarify, neither me nor many others care that you oppose double team in the metagame. That's fine. What I do care about is your refusal to let it be tested because of some ideal situations you can create in your head.

 

[Chimera]

Who can use Haze effectively? Haze beats stat ups, but it isnt seen in competitive play now where Dragon Dance, Swords Dance, Nasty Plot, and Curse are frequently seen. The current environment can't support much in the way of (p)hazing due to the speed of it.

Then we have the fact that Sand Veil on Garchomp was one of the reasons people clamored for its banning (though not the only one, it was certainly brought up frequently), so it does say something when you can play a game right and lose due to a couple of Minimizes or Double Teams. Luck may not be dominant now, but a move that raises evasion only raises luck, so any percentage you have would shift with evasion moves.

I think testing is pointless, , and odds are, like other suspect tests, the ladder will be biased towards those wanting change in terms of participation.

I guess my point is, I don't see the point of testing things just to "shake things up" in the community a bit. Right now I'd like to see an ubers/borderline list that creates the best possible OU and UU metagames. This is a waste in my opinion, even if its not it is certainly VERY low priority.

 

[Hipmonlee]

I think testing is pointless, , and odds are, like other suspect tests, the ladder will be biased towards those wanting change in terms of participation.

I guess my point is, I don't see the point of testing things just to "shake things up" in the community a bit. Right now I'd like to see an ubers/borderline list that creates the best possible OU and UU metagames. This is a waste in my opinion, even if its not it is certainly VERY low priority.

Any problems with the testing process arent relevant to this discussion. The fact is the suspect test process is the process we will use, and any flaws in it dont have any bearing on what should be tested.

Nobody is suggesting to test DT to shake things up. Or at least, nobody who knows anything about pokemon. I want to test DT because I think it is banned without good reason. Smogon's philosophy dictates that if that is the case, then something should be done to rectify that problem.

Have a nice day.

 

[blasphemy1]

A precaution so intense that you would ignorantly refuse to even test something? Testing does not mean implementation, and if anyone needs to calm down it is you.

Edit: Just to clarify, neither me nor many others care that you oppose double team in the metagame. That's fine. What I do care about is your refusal to let it be tested because of some ideal situations you can create in your head.

I am not going to be a fascist asshole and say "stop right now! You will not test Double Team!" You can go ahead and do so, that is fine. All I am saying is I will look at smogon in different terms. My voice really has no say in whether or not smogon decides to test this, so I don't quite understand what you are getting at when you say you care about my refusal to let it be tested.

 

[Every1XplodeNOW]

If the Evasion User is faster, and Taunts you, you lose. Really, the Evasion user has to have a good combo of Defenses and Speed, but there are some tanks that have this. And it is kind of pointless to run evasion without a Taunt, unless you're baton passing a Belly Drum, in which case one will do.

I am agreeing with Steeve here - Evasion is NOT COMPLETELY luck. You used a move to have a chance at dodging something, it's only right you get some reward, and that is other moves not being able to hit as much. So let's test it, though it probably will be to much. Because if there is at least SOME chance that the thing will be proved or disproved centralizing, than it is worth a test.

And SOME != a little.

*nods*
And if testing proves it is not best for the metagame, then I will gladly back down. Because I want what is best for the metagame.

Yes, I do understand that this game is largely skill based, that is why I play it. However, one can't argue that it is infuriating to lose to someone when they just froze your last hope, or crit your sweeper one the second turn it was out. Even though you are in "control" of how many Double Teams you use, the results can be unpredictable, as probability could span out over several matches until you get more and more attacks in against an evasion user.

Yes it is, but I don't see that as being bad for the game. That is just part of the game. It same if you use fire blast and it misses. It is your gamble for choosing power(fire blast) over accuracy(flamethower) and not the games.

Imagine "Simple" Bibarel where it only takes 3 turns for max evasion...

Bibarel: @ Leftovers

Double-team
Super-fang
Curse / Taunt / Return
Waterfall

Beef up Evasion and Defense and Attack.

It's not the best set, but it would be fairly effective, with Super Fang causing lots of switches, especially usable with Entry hazzards.

Taunt is also something Bibarel learns.

Well I don't think the Bibarel is the best example for this, except for uu of course.

Whoa? Hold on there. I think you have it all wrong. There is "good" change, then there is "bad" change. I am all for testing ANY reasonable pokemon for suspect, but I don't think Double Team deserves mention. It is my opinion, call me ignorant, but your petty support for Double Team becoming unbanned is never going to change that(my opinion).

Well first I'm mainly supporting a test for it, though I do think it could prove to be a good change, my opinion, and many others, could change if a test was executed. That word petty does not describe the support for evasion because there is great support and great reasoning for a test. Have you been reading the post? There is enough support for this to call a test and you don't see that, then you must be blind.

I am not going to be a fascist asshole and say "stop right now! You will not test Double Team!" You can go ahead and do so, that is fine. All I am saying is I will look at smogon in different terms. My voice really has no say in whether or not smogon decides to test this, so I don't quite understand what you are getting at when you say you care about my refusal to let it be tested.

"I don't think double team deserves mention" in a sense is saying "stop right now! You will not test Double Team!" just more dramatic. Why do you think if smogon tests it, that smogon will lose credibility? I mean if evasion is bad then prove it to us in a test. Really I think it will give smogon some amazing props for doing something like this because it shows that they are not afraid to change the metagame(for the better)(Now let me use your words) I don't quite understand what you are getting at when you say you care about my(or anyone's) approval to let it be tested, like I have a say in it either.Word:P

 

[blasphemy1]

Yes it is, but I don't see that as being bad for the game. That is just part of the game. It same if you use fire blast and it misses. It is your gamble for choosing power(fire blast) over accuracy(flamethower) and not the games.

The difference is YOU control whether or not you use Fire Blast, not the opponent, like in the case of Double Team/Minimize.

Well first I'm mainly supporting a test for it, though I do think it could prove to be a good change, my opinion, and many others, could change if a test was executed. That word petty does not describe the support for evasion because there is great support and great reasoning for a test. Have you been reading the post? There is enough support for this to call a test and you don't see that, then you must be blind.

I do realize there is a lot of support, and that there will likely be a test, so petty was the wrong word for what I am trying to say. What I wanted to say is that there is some displaced support for this test, that is all.

"I don't think double team deserves mention" in a sense is saying "stop right now! You will not test Double Team!" just more dramatic. Why do you think if smogon tests it, that smogon will lose credibility? I mean if evasion is bad then prove it to us in a test. Really I think it will give smogon some amazing props for doing something like this because it shows that they are not afraid to change the metagame(for the better)(Now let me use your words) I don't quite understand what you are getting at when you say you care about my(or anyone's) approval to let it be tested, like I have a say in it either.Word:P

Not really, it is just my own opinion, and I am not forcing it down anyone's throat. In my eyes, smogon will lose credibility as Double Team is forcing luck into the game. I know how things work in the past, and honestly, from Shaymin-S testing, I just don't want to see a metagame with broken Baton Pass chains, and a few legitimate pokemon(Uxie, Latios, Gliscor) are being banned as a direct result of Double Team being unbanned. It isn't because I don't want change, yet because I think this will make the metagame change for the worse.

I think my words are a bit confusing, but to sum it up, I think smogon's credibility will decrease as a direct result that the population doesn't exactly know how we need to run the metagame, thus Double Team will become unbanned. The actual process would be fine, but I have lost hope in voters after what happened to Shaymin-S.

 

[noob3]

can we please quit having these pointless theorymon threads? totally useless.. the people posting the tasty information that i crave are being drowned out by people with 1 attack bronzong/spiritomb/dusknoir sets and mirrorcoat/taunt retards

 

[Every1XplodeNOW]

The difference is YOU control whether or not you use Fire Blast, not the opponent, like in the case of Double Team/Minimize.




I do realize there is a lot of support, and that there will likely be a test, so petty was the wrong word for what I am trying to say. What I wanted to say is that there is some displaced support for this test, that is all.



Not really, it is just my own opinion, and I am not forcing it down anyone's throat. In my eyes, smogon will lose credibility as Double Team is forcing luck into the game. I know how things work in the past, and honestly, from Shaymin-S testing, I just don't want to see a metagame with broken Baton Pass chains, and a few legitimate pokemon(Uxie, Latios, Gliscor) are being banned as a direct result of Double Team being unbanned. It isn't because I don't want change, yet because I think this will make the metagame change for the worse.

I think my words are a bit confusing, but to sum it up, I think smogon's credibility will decrease as a direct result that the population doesn't exactly know how we need to run the metagame, thus Double Team will become unbanned. The actual process would be fine, but I have lost hope in voters after what happened to Shaymin-S.

Alright whatever I will leave it alone, just that still don't understand how you think smogon will lose credibility for testing evasion.

Well anyway I got a counter for taunt/evasion: trick. If you trick a choice item to a pokemon using evasion it will pretty much be useless. Now yeah trick is effected by taunt, so that is why I would suggest to use choice scarf so you can out speed the taunt. Also they can run trick/taunt/DT/filler so it could trick the item away but I don't think they can do anything with that set. And trick wasn't use until platinum came out sense not that many pokemon could learn it.

Any comments?

 

[lati0s]

trick can miss so if the trick user misses on their first shot and the DTer taunts the trick user will be forced out allowing the DTer even more set up

 

[YoshiX]

If evasion moves are allowed into the metagame, there will become 3 types of teams: evasion teams, evasion countering teams, and normal teams. Evasion>normal>counter>evasion and so forth, like a game of rocks paper scizors. Any pokemon that can use double team/minimize and taunt will become nearly unstoppable with luck on it's side. Bringing evasion into the metagame will make it more reliant on luck rather than skill. Therefore, I belive evasion should NOT be allowed.

EDIT: I do support the idea of testing it, so we can have proof on whether or not it is broken.

 

[Theorymon]

I think its best that Double Team is tested in all tiers, as it might not be broken, its never been tested.

 

[Shigen]

The biggest problem (I think) would be those who use it with substitute, especially if they're fast. Switch in on something non-threatening, DT on their switch, sub until they miss, DT and sub some more, then either have a hax sweep or pass it to something else.

 

[Every1XplodeNOW]

It has a 100% acc. so if you can get it off first then it does counter, that's why I said to use choice scarf. But I know what you mean, it would be really hard to switch into a DTer.

edit:@shigen: True, but they won't have that great coverage and a taunt or trick will completely destroy it.

 

[Darkmalice]

Thanks for pointing that out :).

OK, first things first, you would agree that the user of evasion would have to be properly bulky, like a Gliscor, Skarm, Dusknoir, or whatever. It also should avoid being weak to fighting (hence why Umbreon, Heatran, and T-Tar would not do good jobs). The thing is with crits, if someone is using a pokemon with enough initial power, it's likley to 1HKO the pokemon, as it utterly avoids the stat-boosts and has double power. Thus, if you managed to land a crit on a pokemon using such, it would be gg, as most of those pokemon will be attempteing to do it with a supereffective, or at least neutrally effective move. With evasion, you have to worry less about these random crits as you have that extra chance to dodge them. Considering that you are using a defensive pokemon that has quite the bit of chance to survive one supereffective move, your pokemon still won't be taken down easily, even if the opponent hits.

I have to agree here. However, there are still common scenarios in which bulky pokemon can be OHKOed, excepting perhaps when talking about Ubers and Cresselia (the latter has near no offensive cabilites and even with +6 CM, she is walled by Blissey. For other bulky pokemon, Gliscor hates Ice Beam and even Ice Punch, Skarmory has Electric and Fire problems, Dusknoir hates Tyranitar and the list goes on.

Erm... please only Compare it to Cosmic Power. Only Cosmic Power protects you from both sides of the spectrum in one move slot. The most defensive use of Cosmic Power... is Claydol. The most powerful with a one spot recovery move is... Clefable (which actually is really good in doubles for Follow Me-ing if you get the Cosmic Powers up).

I agree though, it would be just as difficult to get +6 evasion as +6 Cosmic Power. However, I think the crits would make Cosmic Power to risky. About the type coverage though... have you ever thought about using moves that force them to switch on entry hazards, or what about running this during a Sandstorm. The entry hazards add up, and Double Team has quite a bit of PP (though most of it is useless). Imagine facing a whole team of double teamers, eventually, you would die of either running out of PP or switching on entry hazards too much (you cannot Heal because of Taunt).

I admit that Cosmic Power has very few good users. However, I think we can all agree that DT is most powerful when used with Baton Pass.

If the DT user manages to get +6 Evasion and has Taunt, what happens then? Sweeping attempts and residual damage will be just too hard to pull off. Entry hazards mean little against Wish, and Sandstorm is negated by Leftovers. Your DT + Taunt + Roar suggestion is ruined if Rapid Spin manages to hit the DT user, and that's a 50% chance after 3 DTs. Of course, this argument doesn't apply for Dusknoir, but as you said, he's a too slow Taunt user.

I agree, Dusknoir is a bit too slow for the ideal Taunt. Try looking for something a bit faster.

Strickly speaking, the best users of DT are bulky. EVing them in Speed will remove some of their bulk and make the challenge of pulling off +6 Evasion even harder. And even if they are EVed for speed, there will be still plenty of faster pokemon that can know Taunt.

Who can use Haze effectively? Haze beats stat ups, but it isnt seen in competitive play now where Dragon Dance, Swords Dance, Nasty Plot, and Curse are frequently seen. The current environment can't support much in the way of (p)hazing due to the speed of it.

Decent users of the move Haze are Vaporeon, Dragnoite, Tentacruel, Milotic, Weezing, Driflbim, Blastoise and Crobat. Should DT be introduced, Haze would become more common, for it is a 100% DT counter and is only beaten by Taunt. That is if the DT user can use Taunt in time. And which good DT users have the speed to do that? Or which DT users can afford to use Taunt on a Salamence, Tyranitar, Heatran, Lucario or Metagross switching in?

Then we have the fact that Sand Veil on Garchomp was one of the reasons people clamored for its banning (though not the only one, it was certainly brought up frequently), so it does say something when you can play a game right and lose due to a couple of Minimizes or Double Teams. Luck may not be dominant now, but a move that raises evasion only raises luck, so any percentage you have would shift with evasion moves.

Sand Veil wasn't the dominant reason for Garchomp's banning. Rather, it was that it was near guaranteed to net a KO each match thanks to Earthquake, Outrage, SD and Fire Fang with a Yache Berry to remove it's one key weakness.
Luck has always been dominant. Stone Edge with 80% accuracy (like a self Sand Veil effect) and a high crit chance is currently the 4th most common move and takes up 10.1% of moveslots. Fire Blast takes up 6.0% of moveslots.

Any problems with the testing process arent relevant to this discussion. The fact is the suspect test process is the process we will use, and any flaws in it dont have any bearing on what should be tested.

Nobody is suggesting to test DT to shake things up. Or at least, nobody who knows anything about pokemon. I want to test DT because I think it is banned without good reason. Smogon's philosophy dictates that if that is the case, then something should be done to rectify that problem.

Have a nice day.

Agreed. This is the reason that Skymin is being tested again in the future and why we are not re-testing Garchomp.

If the Evasion User is faster, and Taunts you, you lose. Really, the Evasion user has to have a good combo of Defenses and Speed, but there are some tanks that have this. And it is kind of pointless to run evasion without a Taunt, unless you're baton passing a Belly Drum, in which case one will do.

I am agreeing with Steeve here - Evasion is NOT COMPLETELY luck. You used a move to have a chance at dodging something, it's only right you get some reward, and that is other moves not being able to hit as much. So let's test it, though it probably will be to much. Because if there is at least SOME chance that the thing will be proved or disproved centralizing, than it is worth a test.

And SOME != a little.

I will agree that Evasion is not completely luck. But to say that if a DT user lands a Taunt, its gg, is complete rubbish when after 3 DTs, you still have a 50% chance of being hit by a move that can pose a OHKO threat.

On that topic, let's say a move will always 2HKO a pokemon, and that pokemon has no form of recovery. That pokemon has 1 DT up, is faster than the opponent, and the opponent has been Taunted. The pokemon will pull off another DT before having a 3/5 chance of being hit by that move (2/5 chance of miss). Next round, it will have a 50% chance of being it (3/6 chance of miss). Then it's 3/7, 3/8 and 3/9 chance of miss. There is a 4.76% chance of dodging all the attacks (2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 6/9. The chance of dodging one attack is (3/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 3/7 x 5/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 3/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 3/9), which is a 20.7% of dodging one attack. The chance of survival (being hit once or less) is 25.5%. So being Taunted against a DT user is far from gg.

If evasion moves are allowed into the metagame, there will become 3 types of teams: evasion teams, evasion countering teams, and normal teams. Evasion>normal>counter>evasion and so forth, like a game of rocks paper scizors. Any pokemon that can use double team/minimize and taunt will become nearly unstoppable with luck on it's side. Bringing evasion into the metagame will make it more reliant on luck rather than skill. Therefore, I belive evasion should NOT be allowed.

EDIT: I do support the idea of testing it, so we can have proof on whether or not it is broken.

There is no way you would be able to predict this. And I doubt there would be a team solely dedicated to countering DT; it'll fail against every other type of team. Either normal teams would adjust themselves so they can handle DT better e.g. use No Guard Machamp, or they wouldn't change at all.

Still, wouldn't Bibarel be quite too powerful with the following set? Remember, it only takes 3 turns for max evasion, and it learns a +Defense move, so in accordance to the OP comparing Def, Sp Def VS Evasion, this Pokemon can take advantage of both.

Bibarel: @ Leftovers

Double-team
Super-fang
Curse / Taunt / Return
Waterfall

Bibarel with its pathetic speed is very prone to Taunt and Toxic, especially when it uses Curse. It's too slow to use Taunt effectively. With Return and without Curse, it's easy to wall - Skarmory, Rotom, Dusknoir, Forretress, Vaporeon, Suicune, Cresselia, Hippowdon (even with a weakness to water), Salamence with Roost (if Salamence doesn't have Roost, it'll have the power to OHKO Bibarel - this may still be the case if it has Roost), the list goes on. Finally, Bibarel is incredibly easy to OHKO with its 79/60/60 base HP/Def/SDef and is about as easy to KO as Medicham.

 

[Lightsabre]

not much to add here. just want to point out

Bibarel with its pathetic speed is very prone to Taunt and Toxic, especially when it uses Curse. It's too slow to use Taunt effectively. With Return and without Curse, it's easy to wall - Skarmory, Rotom, Dusknoir, Forretress, Vaporeon, Suicune, Cresselia, Hippowdon (even with a weakness to water), Salamence with Roost (if Salamence doesn't have Roost, it'll have the power to OHKO Bibarel - this may still be the case if it has Roost), the list goes on. Finally, Bibarel is incredibly easy to OHKO with its 79/60/60 base HP/Def/SDef and is about as easy to KO as Medicham.

you're assuming the user is crazy enough to use bibarel in OU. bibarel is UU and needs to be compared to UU walls

 

[Relictivity]

I will agree that Evasion is not completely luck. But to say that if a DT user lands a Taunt, its gg, is complete rubbish when after 3 DTs, you still have a 50% chance of being hit by a move that can pose a OHKO threat.

On that topic, let's say a move will always 2HKO a pokemon, and that pokemon has no form of recovery. That pokemon has 1 DT up, is faster than the opponent, and the opponent has been Taunted. The pokemon will pull off another DT before having a 3/5 chance of being hit by that move (2/5 chance of miss). Next round, it will have a 50% chance of being it (3/6 chance of miss). Then it's 3/7, 3/8 and 3/9 chance of miss. There is a 4.76% chance of dodging all the attacks (2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 6/9. The chance of dodging one attack is (3/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 3/7 x 5/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 3/8 x 6/9 + 2/5 x 3/6 x 4/7 x 5/8 x 3/9), which is a 20.7% of dodging one attack. The chance of survival (being hit once or less) is 25.5%. So being Taunted against a DT user is far from gg.

I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree with this. The DTer does not necessarily have to Taunt, it can DT on the switch in. It can do both. So you only have a 50% chance of sending in the appropriate counter, unless it's Gyarados, in which case, I would not send in a DTer weak to Gyarados in the first place. So these are the scenarios:

1. DTer DTs as you send in a Powerful Attacker (to be calculated)
2. DTer DTs as you send in a Taunter (to be calculated)
3. DTer Taunts as you send in a Powerful Attacker (25.5% of pulling off)
4. DTer Taunts as you send in a Taunter (to be calculated)

Half of those situaltions are advantageous to DT, and Half advantageous to stopping DT. So it is really a 50/50 chance, unless you are willing to do more calcs based on that, as the one you did was Taunts as you send in a Powerful Attacker.

Pokemon is a game about prediction, and the opponent is going to try and outpredict you into thinking they are going to DT or Taunt, so there isn't really any bias to DTing or Taunting.

 

[blasphemy1]

Bibarel with its pathetic speed is very prone to Taunt and Toxic, especially when it uses Curse. It's too slow to use Taunt effectively. With Return and without Curse, it's easy to wall - Skarmory, Rotom, Dusknoir, Forretress, Vaporeon, Suicune, Cresselia, Hippowdon (even with a weakness to water), Salamence with Roost (if Salamence doesn't have Roost, it'll have the power to OHKO Bibarel - this may still be the case if it has Roost), the list goes on. Finally, Bibarel is incredibly easy to OHKO with its 79/60/60 base HP/Def/SDef and is about as easy to KO as Medicham.

This could not be more true. Taunt hits before Whirlwind/Roar, so Skarmory, Vaporeon, Suicune, and Hippowdon won't be able to Phaze it out, and Cresselia won't do much either.

Sure, Rotom-A can 1-2HKO it, but then you can just send something in to deal with it.

Since it doesn't invest in speed, unlike Medicham, and has the ability to boost its attack x2 instead of x1.5, it can invest in HP and defenses. It can survive unSTAB Thunderbolts from Gengar, and Salamence's Draco Meteor shouldn't OHKO. Either way, this wouldn't be used in OU anyways.

 

[Objection]

you're assuming the user is crazy enough to use bibarel in OU. bibarel is UU and needs to be compared to UU walls

Are you using the old "It's not OU so it sucks in OU play" argument?

I will agree that Evasion is not completely luck. But to say that if a DT user lands a Taunt, its gg, is complete rubbish when after 3 DTs, you still have a 50% chance of being hit by a move that can pose a OHKO threat.

Try using a Guts Machamp's Dynamicpunch against a non-DT Tyranitar then.

 

[Naxte]

Exactly, that's why I said this DT/Evasion needs to be tested in UU first, where Bibarel thrives.

Additionally, Bibarel isn't so easy to KO with Curse boosting its Defense by 2 each turn, and/or Evasion getting +2 each turn (allowing it to avoid KOs much easier).

However, if that's not actually going to be relevant to OU conditions, which is the implication I'm getting, then I don't see the reason to focus solely on OU. Just test it in all tiers at once and if it turns out to generally be fine, but it makes Bibarel too much for UU, then move it up to BL (or Uber, if it ends up being too much for standard as well) and leave DT alone beyond that.

Really, don't see any practical reason to limit the test soley to UU; primarily, the effects of a move or Pokemon on standard are what we're concerned with. Testing it on all tiers at once we can also gage the effects on both UU and OU at the same time. Focusing on UU first only seems to be a slower, less efficient process, and it doesn't really offer any advantages. Either it won't be broken in standard, it will only make it necessary to move a Pokemon or two up to BL/Ubers, or it won't really have too much of an effect at all. Regardless though, I don't see how limiting the test to UU in the first stage will give us a better answer as to which, as compared to testing it in all tiers.

 

[Relictivity]

There also comes to be another problem... how are you going to find "weaknesses" in things like Spiritomb. If it does manage to get a Taunt, and the Taunt lasts a while, you are going to be in for a very, very rough time. And you'll usually end up damaging yourself because of pain split. Also, I don't see Machamp (one pokemon) as a good enough excuse that it won't be bad for the metagame. If you need to carry Machamp on your team, always, well, let's not go there.