NOC Hope+1 Game Thread

aight got a block of time and we have a scum flip let's try and game solve this

texas toni metal sonic changedwawmen former hope duskfall jalmont apricity moody whydon caffeineboost jay viper

D1 vote count:

Final Vote Count

Metal Sonic (6): CaffeineBoost, Jay (FT) Flush, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Duskfall98, Metal Sonic

apricity (1): ragmatho/toni,
ChangedWawmen (1): MoodyCloud
Jalmont (1): Jalmont
Former Hope (1): ItzViper482

Not Voting: ChangedWawmen, Whydon, Former Hope

D1 conclusions: now that we have a scum flip we can start to make vc associations. typically a d1 voting situation will have three primary wagons to look in being the main wagon, the counter wagon, and the off wagon grouping but in this case we don't have a counter wagon so we get the following groupings:

a) CaffeineBoost, Jay (FT) Flush, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Duskfall98, Metal Sonic
b) rag/toni, MoodyCloud, Jalmont, Viper, Wawmen, Whydon, Former Hope

usually what we expect to find is at least one, usually two scum hiding off wagon for fear of being linked back to the day 1 wagon, not realizing that being off wagon is a wagon itself. it's very rare for all three scum to be on either wagon though, due to the difficulty of getting so many town to agree on the mislynch of another town.

thus, there is likely one scum among: Jay / Texas / apricity / Duskfall and one scum among toni / Viper / Wawmen / Whydon

D2 vote count:

CaffeineBoost (4): Texas Cloverleaf, Jay (FT) Flush, tonithetourguide, MoodyCloud

MoodyCloud (3): Jalmont, CaffeineBoost, Whydon

Duskfall98 (2): ChangedWawmen, apricity

apricity (1): Duskfall98

Not Voting: ItzViper482

this one is a fair bit trickier to analyze given the craziness leading up to deadline but i have a couple thoughts about this, first:

a) Texas Cloverleaf, Jay (FT) Flush, tonithetourguide, MoodyCloud

b) Whydon, Wawmen, apricity, Duskfall, Viper

the more i stare at how this fell out the worse this looks for whydon. we know that moody was the leading wagon right up until deadline when he ninja'd the vote which on the surface would seem like whydon would be pretty clear because why would he want to risk a moody lynch actually going through given his position on the wagon. but thinking a little bit deeper if moody and whydon are partners it makes perfect sense for him not to be worried given that he KNOWS that moody is going to be there to snake the vote and ensure the mislynch goes off.

taking that line of thought further we know now that moody was a wagon led by a cop guilty - this suggests to me that the early players on the CB wagon are likely going to be town. with as strongly as jalmont was pushing moody who was basically an idler to that point it would make very little sense for scum to coordinate and push a late day counterwagon potentially outing themselves in their defense, much smarter to let opposing town opinions surface and position yourself for a late day save as appears to have happened. for this reason i think jay looks particularly towny alongside myself while toni looks a lot worse, from a vc perspective a scum team of moody/whydon/toni makes a ton of sense especially considering that you would expect scum to be active players at the deadline with their voting to try and avoid getting lynched

that being said the toni connection is mostly conjecture given they've said literally nothing of substance so it's possible they were just a random vote that scum took advantage of and under those circumstances hiding somewhere on the off wagons makes sense if they aren't concerned about a moody lynch because they know he'll be there to save himself. generally vote lurking tends to be a player styling consistent across situations so looking at the overlap between the two off wagon voting groups gives wawmen and viper as possible matches for a moody/whydon team

final vote count for posterity though it's extremely difficult to get anything meaningful from:

MoodyCloud (5): apricity, whydon, Texas Cloverleaf, ItzViper482, ChangedWawmen

Not Voting: tonithetourguide, Jay (FT) Flush, MoodyCloud, Duskfall98

realistically you can make any kind of assumption about where scum are in relation to moody given how apparent it was that jalmont had a guilty on him. i'm of the opinion that scum are more likely to be present on the wagon than off to avoid the appearance of defense but i have to take another look at moody's stuff before drawing any associatives there

tl;dr of the VCA: pretty sure whydon is one of moody's partners, makes a ton of sense from a lot of angles with how d2 played out at the end. hard to say what the third partner is, connections to toni/viper/wawmen make a lot of sense but i'm skeptical because of the implication that the metal sonic wagon was entirely town which just seems unlikely mathematically, albeit not impossible given how overtly scummy ms was. I'm pretty comfortable putting Jay in my town block and i've been reading apricity and dusk as reasonably town so unless it's one of those two maybe it was just a full town d1 wagon?

going to try and take a look back through the thread to see what connections exist with moody and try and narrow down the possible partners to a moody/whydon team
 
I think this is honestly the closest he comes to any form of formulated opinion, and it's not an opinion he is just listing possibilities. I mean viper as a response to this could you please just quote a post where you give some kind of thought out, established reasoning to your vote.
ok

also for the record i agree with this and while reading again saw mostly the same stuff

esp this post makes me think it is moody



i understand how it looks weird for me to just agree with you here and sheep your reasoning but
1) its p good reasoning
2) i avoided posting before you answered cause you are a big gut scum read to me based on how i know you play (hope that makes sense and im wording it right)
in this post i bring up my own reason that was not previosly brought up by quoting a post by jalmont that led me to believe moody was scum.

Town read - nothing solid yet !_!
town lean - Texas Cloverleaf (little weird recently tho) / ChangedWawmen / Whydon
another weird inbetween zone - Jay (FT) Flush
null - ToniTheTourGuide
scum lean -apricity
weird inbetween zone - Duskfall98
Scum read - MoodyCloud



i like your reasoning on moody (which ive explained) and i think scum you is bussing dusk or you are town and dusk is scum therefore your reasoning makes sense either way (even tho iirc it has a few flaws that i can point out later if you want me to go back and read it)
also maybe im forgetting smth with those reads so if you think one of them is off lets have a chat about it :D
i do understand that i did not give full in depth reasoning with my reads im not denying that but
1) i made the second thing i quoted after it and no one commented on my reads to ask me to explain them further
2) i just came back from vacation and wasnt in mood to do a big post explaining reads on all of them

if you would like me to explain these reads more I can



Unvote Apricity.

ill get back to this in a bit, upset I missed out on yesterday completey though.
also while i still scum read dusk i think this post is towny

i dont think scum!dusk comes into the thread after their partner dies and there was no night kill completely unaware enough to unvote apricity which was his vote not the day before but 2 in game days before he made that post
 
Metalsonic's towntell might be "not actively trying to make town go insane"
I feel like scum wouldn't make a post like this so early when they can still ride the rvs wave and not avoid committing to opinions
Moody's entrance into the game, soft buddy on metal sonic, hard buddy on caffeine boost, vote on apricity

Lots of people laying low and not leaving much of an impression yet, I don't remember even reading a post from itzviper/ragmatho in particular
apricity's stream of consciousness haha gotcha posts have seemed over the top and a bit awkward early in the day
apricity/duskfall interaction page 4 did not dissipate that impression but duskfall came off as having smelled blood in the water with their "I did not ask you X question because you would've sidestepped it anyway" argument
On the same page FH states that he thinks cb is mafia but does not vote him or follow up on that. Jay also pops in and doesn't say much but asks FH to elaborate on his one liner. Jay somehow looks kind of good here without actually saying much

Texas has seemed underwhelming so far, didn't like his entrance much and feels less of a driving force than usual
FH page 5 had me like ??? but having no idea what he's talking about and getting triggered by him is usually how I recognize his town game so i actually slightly tr his nonsensical shade slinging here
FH still doesn't vote cb and goes after apricity instead on that page
Ragmatho actually makes a post and gives a bunch of stances on people unprompted but with zero reasoning and a cryptic "as far as I know"
Changedwawmen makes a passing comment as well

I give up on commenting every page like that actually

MS/FH seem townish for bad meta reasons
apricity seems sketchy for mostly tonal reasons
CB lean townish for wifom reasons
Duskfall nullish but his argument against apricity p4 seemed disingenuous
Changedwawmen/ragmatho have been spectators so far and I didn't like their posts up to page 6
Others I mostly don't remember

vote changedwawmen

unsure I'll still be around at deadline btw
crapload of passing comments here, lots of suspicions and lots of randposts but looks like he comments on every player except for whydon

couple of nothing posts, then revotes apricity

vote caffeineboost then ? don't think dusk looks bad at all
the apricity defense brigade pulled through two days in a row in broad daylight lmao
last posts are the nail in CBs coffin and another target on apricity

considering this the whydon connection looks stronger being the only person in the game moody never mentioned and apricity looks very good here too. considering how little content moody posted it would have to be a very committed bussing effort by moody to be targeting apricity this aggressively, considering this and my general tonal read over the course of the game i'm happy with apricity joining Jay in my town block

this also means that if there was a scum on the metal sonic wagon it has to be duskfall which i don't think it is? i thought he was scum d1 but i've liked his tone since?

not sure what to make of the wawmen vote in his reads wall, could be distancing, could be the appearance of pressure
 
ok



in this post i bring up my own reason that was not previosly brought up by quoting a post by jalmont that led me to believe moody was scum.




i do understand that i did not give full in depth reasoning with my reads im not denying that but
1) i made the second thing i quoted after it and no one commented on my reads to ask me to explain them further
2) i just came back from vacation and wasnt in mood to do a big post explaining reads on all of them

if you would like me to explain these reads more I can





also while i still scum read dusk i think this post is towny

i dont think scum!dusk comes into the thread after their partner dies and there was no night kill completely unaware enough to unvote apricity which was his vote not the day before but 2 in game days before he made that post
Quoting a post of someone else making a read isn't really an opinion. But i think you know that since you admit to not giving "full in depth reasoning". I mean in the post you quoted as your example for where you made your own reasoning you confessed you were sheeping jalmonts read. Im definitely reading viper as scum.

It's a lot easier to say you can give opinions on stuff if people want than to put yourself out there and actively partake and risk exposure. But I suppose that's just my opinion.
 

apricity

Mafia Champion
I put like zero stock into VCA. I remember proph did a shitton in the animal mafia game and I was just like zzzzzzzzz the entire time

I also dislike the fact texas’ wall is not accompanied by a vote, and also accompanied by a “uhhhh let me fence sit” read on dusk which is literally what dusk did to moody at end of day 2.
 

apricity

Mafia Champion
I don’t want to pay attention to the d1 wagon because metal Sonic decided to int

I don’t want to pay attention to the d3 wagon because we literally just lynched a cop guilty

The only wagon that makes sense to analyze is the d2 wagon and all we get from that is that whydon is town which we already knew
 
I will say this I know I am never going to make it to the end of the game. I think everyone would agree with me on this.

If I was scum my only chance of winning would be to try help the other scum last as long as possible. So you know if I am scum I would never vote the other scum to try save myself.
 

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