MANNAT
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Congregation of the Classiest (6) vs (6) Alpha Ruiners
SS OU: Insult vs mncmt - Fake jamvad would've gotten washed last week if CTC didn't miraculously forget about the switch button at the end of the game, whereas Insult's 6-3 and has looked incredibly solid this tour, not much thinking needed here.
SS OU: suapah vs FLCL - Razor thin margins on this one, suapah and FLCL have both looked dominant at different points this season and while FLCL has more momentum right now, I also don't think suapah is dropping 2 in a row in playoffs. FLCL has been using pretty standard midrange teams with some unique sets like SubDD Kyurem, and riding out games with his playing ability, but I think that gravitation towards comfort teams is going to be taken advantage
SS OU: blarghlfarghl vs Empo - I am well aware that this matchup went the other way during the regular season, but as the unbiased predictor himself has said, "even a blind squirrel finds an acorn occasionally". On a more serious note, I do respect blargh a lot as a player, and bolding obii against him last week was a foolish decision in retrospect, I just think Empo is red hot right now and would bold him against most everyone in the tour. These guys are both pretty similar players, not afraid to go outside the box a bit, I just think Empo's timely aggression is going to come around and be able to beat blargh when he's been unable to the last couple times they've played.
SS DOU: stax vs qsns - Can't speak much on doubles, but stax had an incredible regular season and qsns could very well be on tilt after getting mugged in a dark alley by Ice-type attacks last week, so I'm gonna have to favor stax.
SS LC: Serene Grace vs jake - Another really tight game, I favor jake by a hair mostly by virtue of his experience in impactful games in the past. Both of these guys are unafraid to use teams that could be labeled as "cheese", so I can't really get a read on this prep-wise. That aside, I'm a bit more inclined to favor jake from a pure playing perspective because I think he's more likely to take the timely risks at unexpected moments after playing a fairly safe game up to that point that it takes to win a playoff game, and Serene may not necessarily be able to punish those in the same way that Luthier was able to in snake finals.
SM OU: Relous vs Gondra - Relous is coming off of a nice victory against Eo but Gondra has been a flaming ball of something this tour and I'm still not convinced Relous is all the way back after his disastrous start to the tour, so I'm gonna have to favor Gondra here.
ORAS OU: Persephone vs xImRaptor - I've been burned bolding Pers nearly every time I post these and Raptor seemingly wins every single game, so I guess I'll have to take him here. I still think Pers has a very high ceiling and creativity that can potentially win here, but Raptor has used a diversified selection of solid, proven teams, which makes him hard to pin down. I think Raptor's got a pretty massive edge on Pers in the gameplanning and execution departments.
BW OU: Raiza vs Caetano93 - Raiza has finally found some momentum after his horrendously unlucky start, but I've gotta stick the doctor here. I think that Caetano has a higher ceiling as a player due to his aggressive gameplay and is significantly more willing to take risks in the teambuilder. Everyone and their mom has harped on Raiza's predictability, and I'd be irritated if I was in his position, but regardless I doubt we'll see some ridiculous metagame shifting ingenuity from him in the finals and that gives Caetano a definite edge here.
DPP OU: Excal vs Emeral - Both players seem kinda similar to me, but Excal's metagame knowledge is up there with the top dogs and his incredible teambuilding coupled with support from Tamahome combined with his solid performance thus far is too much for me to favor Emeral over him given each player's body of work.
ADV OU: Tamahome vs Alexander. - Bolding against Tama is definitely a sin, but I've got a feeling Prinz is gonna deliver in a big way here. He came up big in the semis against marcop, playing well and coming up w a clutch victory to push the Tyrants to the brink of elimination. Really hype game that could go either way, looking forward to it.
GSC OU: KratosMana vs FriendOfMrGolem120 - Anti's god, FOMG's good, but I'm probably only bolding Fear against Anti in GSC at this point with how insanely consistent he's been. Enough said
RBY OU: Amaranth vs Hyogafodex - Was tempted to bold hyoga here due to the truckload of karma that TIN is due to get hit in the dome with sometime soon, but it would be absolute nonsense to regardless LOL.
Tiebreak:
What I'm thinking here is that the Ruiners have no super high edge tiers in oldgens because of the Anti+Tama combo, so they'll go with Gondra in SM after the absolute rampage he's been on, and the Classiest are going to go with DPP and pick Tama, seeing as there's not really anyone on the Ruiners on his level in DPP. Seems fairly straightforward to me in general.
Congregation of the Classiest (2) vs (1) Alpha Ruiners
SS OU: KratosMana vs FLCL - As much as I want to bold anti here, he hasn't played a single game of SS this SPL and got knocked out of the invitational fairly early on, so in spite of the killstreak he's on in GSC and my high personal opinion of him as a player, it's just impossible to favor him against someone that's scorching hot right now.
SM OU: suapah vs Gondra - Picking against the guy that's 9-1 is stupid on paper, but I'm insanely high on suapah and think he can beat anyone at any given time. I think that his abilities as a team builder and player are really activated by the additional options available in SM, even moreso than SS and given his incredible performance so far, even if he's coming off of a loss, I think he's in a prime position to pull a tiebreak turning upset against Gondra.
DPP OU: Tamahome vs Alexander. - Tamahome is arguably the best modern DPP player and is almost always the consensus best when he chooses to play it, having played it numerous times and churning out great records in spite of it being called the "variance madhouse", showing just how high level he is as a player here. Even though I've got a gut feeling Alex can take down Tama in a more even playing field in ADV, favoring him here would be an absurd upset.
SS OU: Insult vs mncmt - Fake jamvad would've gotten washed last week if CTC didn't miraculously forget about the switch button at the end of the game, whereas Insult's 6-3 and has looked incredibly solid this tour, not much thinking needed here.
SS OU: suapah vs FLCL - Razor thin margins on this one, suapah and FLCL have both looked dominant at different points this season and while FLCL has more momentum right now, I also don't think suapah is dropping 2 in a row in playoffs. FLCL has been using pretty standard midrange teams with some unique sets like SubDD Kyurem, and riding out games with his playing ability, but I think that gravitation towards comfort teams is going to be taken advantage
SS OU: blarghlfarghl vs Empo - I am well aware that this matchup went the other way during the regular season, but as the unbiased predictor himself has said, "even a blind squirrel finds an acorn occasionally". On a more serious note, I do respect blargh a lot as a player, and bolding obii against him last week was a foolish decision in retrospect, I just think Empo is red hot right now and would bold him against most everyone in the tour. These guys are both pretty similar players, not afraid to go outside the box a bit, I just think Empo's timely aggression is going to come around and be able to beat blargh when he's been unable to the last couple times they've played.
SS DOU: stax vs qsns - Can't speak much on doubles, but stax had an incredible regular season and qsns could very well be on tilt after getting mugged in a dark alley by Ice-type attacks last week, so I'm gonna have to favor stax.
SS LC: Serene Grace vs jake - Another really tight game, I favor jake by a hair mostly by virtue of his experience in impactful games in the past. Both of these guys are unafraid to use teams that could be labeled as "cheese", so I can't really get a read on this prep-wise. That aside, I'm a bit more inclined to favor jake from a pure playing perspective because I think he's more likely to take the timely risks at unexpected moments after playing a fairly safe game up to that point that it takes to win a playoff game, and Serene may not necessarily be able to punish those in the same way that Luthier was able to in snake finals.
SM OU: Relous vs Gondra - Relous is coming off of a nice victory against Eo but Gondra has been a flaming ball of something this tour and I'm still not convinced Relous is all the way back after his disastrous start to the tour, so I'm gonna have to favor Gondra here.
ORAS OU: Persephone vs xImRaptor - I've been burned bolding Pers nearly every time I post these and Raptor seemingly wins every single game, so I guess I'll have to take him here. I still think Pers has a very high ceiling and creativity that can potentially win here, but Raptor has used a diversified selection of solid, proven teams, which makes him hard to pin down. I think Raptor's got a pretty massive edge on Pers in the gameplanning and execution departments.
BW OU: Raiza vs Caetano93 - Raiza has finally found some momentum after his horrendously unlucky start, but I've gotta stick the doctor here. I think that Caetano has a higher ceiling as a player due to his aggressive gameplay and is significantly more willing to take risks in the teambuilder. Everyone and their mom has harped on Raiza's predictability, and I'd be irritated if I was in his position, but regardless I doubt we'll see some ridiculous metagame shifting ingenuity from him in the finals and that gives Caetano a definite edge here.
DPP OU: Excal vs Emeral - Both players seem kinda similar to me, but Excal's metagame knowledge is up there with the top dogs and his incredible teambuilding coupled with support from Tamahome combined with his solid performance thus far is too much for me to favor Emeral over him given each player's body of work.
ADV OU: Tamahome vs Alexander. - Bolding against Tama is definitely a sin, but I've got a feeling Prinz is gonna deliver in a big way here. He came up big in the semis against marcop, playing well and coming up w a clutch victory to push the Tyrants to the brink of elimination. Really hype game that could go either way, looking forward to it.
GSC OU: KratosMana vs FriendOfMrGolem120 - Anti's god, FOMG's good, but I'm probably only bolding Fear against Anti in GSC at this point with how insanely consistent he's been. Enough said
RBY OU: Amaranth vs Hyogafodex - Was tempted to bold hyoga here due to the truckload of karma that TIN is due to get hit in the dome with sometime soon, but it would be absolute nonsense to regardless LOL.
Tiebreak:
What I'm thinking here is that the Ruiners have no super high edge tiers in oldgens because of the Anti+Tama combo, so they'll go with Gondra in SM after the absolute rampage he's been on, and the Classiest are going to go with DPP and pick Tama, seeing as there's not really anyone on the Ruiners on his level in DPP. Seems fairly straightforward to me in general.
Congregation of the Classiest (2) vs (1) Alpha Ruiners
SS OU: KratosMana vs FLCL - As much as I want to bold anti here, he hasn't played a single game of SS this SPL and got knocked out of the invitational fairly early on, so in spite of the killstreak he's on in GSC and my high personal opinion of him as a player, it's just impossible to favor him against someone that's scorching hot right now.
SM OU: suapah vs Gondra - Picking against the guy that's 9-1 is stupid on paper, but I'm insanely high on suapah and think he can beat anyone at any given time. I think that his abilities as a team builder and player are really activated by the additional options available in SM, even moreso than SS and given his incredible performance so far, even if he's coming off of a loss, I think he's in a prime position to pull a tiebreak turning upset against Gondra.
DPP OU: Tamahome vs Alexander. - Tamahome is arguably the best modern DPP player and is almost always the consensus best when he chooses to play it, having played it numerous times and churning out great records in spite of it being called the "variance madhouse", showing just how high level he is as a player here. Even though I've got a gut feeling Alex can take down Tama in a more even playing field in ADV, favoring him here would be an absurd upset.