so we back
1. What mons do you believe will see increased usage?
You. You will.
I gave this thing a lot of flack in the past, and a huge reason I felt so passionately about it was because of how difficult of a time it had actually doing work, even with easy set-up, with things like Cinderace plaguing it and giving it an incredibly hard time executing sweeps to begin with. Magearna was checked by it once it set up, but Volcarona still hated battling Trick and getting suddenly smacked by a Specs Fleur Cannon or a Scarfed Volt Switch into a corresponding defensive check like Toxapex or the now-banned Cinderace. It's without question that Volcarona had and does have a lot of offensive potential, but now I believe its only real checks come in the form of Thunder Wave Dragapult, Marowak, of course, the Pex. I don't believe Volcarona is even remotely banworthy, and I even still stand by the sentiment that it's still a bit overrated since two of its three best answers are some of the best Pokemon in the tier. Though, Volcarona was a definite winner from these bans, and will be even more potent as an offensive Fire-type in the tier.
Magearna was one of Kyurem's best natural checks next to Blissey, and whether we want to admit it or not, even with Blissey, that shit hurt. Specs Freeze-Dry with STAB Draco and Earth Power is still an incredible offensive combination, even with Blissey running around.
Though, that's not the biggest reason Kyurem is a winner. Magearna being gone means that SubToxic variants are finally viable, which dumpsters on Blissey and is an amazing status spreader in general, especially with Freeze-Dry making it so the only real switch-ins are Steel-types. SubToxic Kyurem has a
ton of potential in the tier, more than I feel people are giving it credit for. Being able to spread such a huge status onto susceptible targets, while blasting away Toxapex and Amoonguss with Freeze-Dry practically every game makes Kyurem a great stallbreaker that utterly dunks on passive cores, while serving a great utility against balance teams as well that like to make use of Blissey and Slowbro for pivoting. I imagine Kyurem's viability skyrocketed again from the loss of Cinderace and Magearna.
Rillaboom is really, really happy to see these Pokemon gone. Magearna and Cinderace both resisted Grassy Glide, and the former was a fantastic check to variants without High Horsepower. This leaves Rillaboom's best checks to Corviknight, Skarmory, and Mandibuzz, all of which are great Pokemon, but despise Magnezone now being in the tier. The grass is greener on the other side for monke.
2. Which mons (if any) do you think will be overhyped and have their usage skyrocket initially before dying down after a few days/weeks?
Weavile is a super cool mon, but I've seen some people in other places talk about it with Magearna, its best answer, being gone, as well as Cinderace that was just generally annoying. Weavile is for sure a winner from this turn of events, but Weavile's fundamental issues are still glaring and apparent. It is pitifully walled by Toxapex, it overrelies on Knock Off's damage boost to get pivotal ranges, its Ice options aren't reliably accurate, it is super frail, and it is thrashed by anything faster than it. I think that, while it did win from the bans, that people will find themselves disappointed when they see it still fail to perform like what is expected of it.
Toxtricity might've appreciated Magearna and Cinderace's removal from the tier, but people are forgetting that it struggled before Libero Cinderace and Magearna entered the scene, as its best answers are still crawling around the tier and are buzzing about, walling its Boombursts, outspeeding it, and capitalizing on its prediction reliant nature. I could see Silk Scarf being an interesting pick, as it removes the Choice Lock while giving a nice boost to its explosive Boombursts, but, similar to Weavile, it is still plagued by a lot of inherently detrimental factors that held it back before.
3. Is there anything that may see less usage now that Magearna and Cinderace are banned?
Rotom-Heat really liked being a blanket check to most Cinderace variants and Magearna, and while it is certainly still an amazing Pokemon in the tier, it lost some appeal as a defensive check. Though, Rotom-Heat is the only real thing that comes to mind, as most Pokemon absolutely hated the two that were banned from the tier, and benefited in some way or another from the bans.
4 + 5. How do you think the metagame will develop now that Magearna/Cinderace are banned?
Magearna and Cinderace were offensive powerhouses. While Magearna was much more explosive than Cinderace, Cinderace was an offensive swiss-army knife, able to take on most defensive matchups in the tier with its range of coverage moves and incredible speed tier. As such, offense and balance teams alike lost some amazing pieces to their playstyle, which will now force both archetypes to more articulately fit their teams to topple the new defensive cores that have gained a lot more viability with the loss of these two Pokemon. I believe Balance and Semi-stall, with a sprinkle of hard Stall, will take much more precedent in the tier, as the best defensive cores in the tier have only gotten better without Trick and Cinderace to get into their grill. Momentum is still top dog, too, with Slowbro/Blissey being an insane pivoting core for Balance and Semi-stall, as mentioned before. Though, a huge reason I don't believe hard Stall will be that viable still is because of one pokemon:
Urshifu.
Urshifu wasn't really a fan of Cinderace of Magearna itself, and I feel we have somewhat forgotten just how powerful this thing is, and how simply mindbogglingly good it is at blowing away defensive cores without assistance. I can see it becoming an overcentralizing staple to Balanced Offense, with pokemon like Volcarona appreciating its breaking ability, and with the strength of the new and improved pivoting cores, as its wallbreaking ability by its own right is obscene.
Though, at the same time, Toxapex is the best it's ever been. I'll get to that.
6. What playstyle/type of teams (offensive, balance, stall, etc) benefitted the most from the bans.
I personally think Balanced Offense, general Balance, and Semi-stall got a huge upgrade from the loss of Magearna and Cinderace in the tier. I mentioned a lot of it already in my previous answer, but Urshifu is just such a good playing piece to offense and balance cores that it's going to be surprising if the former two
don't succeed. I think Semi-stall is a weird case to fully evaluate since they're Urshifu victims themselves, but I think Semi-stall cores with Urshifu and a corresponding offensive Pokemon are particular winners, since defensive cores got notably better without the bans getting in their grill.
7. What playstyle/type of teams lost the most from the bans?
Hyper Offense and Volt-Turn Offense teams are crying very many tears. They still have Urshifu by their side, but losing Cinderace and Magearna is huge, especially for the latter. Hyper Offense still has many offensive playing pieces to work with, but Magearna was so good for it that losing Magearna in of itself greatly dents its viability. They also liked Bulk Up Cinderace, which was also insane, albeit to a lesser extent. Volt-Turn loved both Pokemon, since they were both incredible offensive Pokemon and formed an amazing Volt-Turn core in of themselves. While Rillaboom and Urshifu are still alive and kicking, I imagine it'll be much harder for these archetypes to succeed the way that they have prior to the bans.
8. Is there anything that may become too problematic for OU now that Magearna and Cinderace are banned? Don't go overboard with this one.
Toxapex is a very strange case, because it as a defensive playing piece is obscene, but at the same time it's such a weird Pokemon to evaluate due to its startlingly different nature as a banworthy Pokemon. I won't echo the sentiments of others in this thread, but it is incredibly difficult to wear down its physically defensive set, especially with such an obscene defensive typing, Regenerator, and incredibly free Toxics, Toxic Spikes, Scalds, and Knock Offs to dish out. These factors make it very hard to play around and actually skillfully outplay/punish effectively, and makes for a powerful utility Pokemon that is not only hard to break, but has a hard time being broken in general, letting its defensive utility play a longer staying role, and overall clearing the path for teams in a much stronger fashion than what I could see as healthy. In fact, it is such an amazing glue to balance that it in of itself has become an evil almost necessitated in most Balance archetypes.
Honestly, though, I'm not as passionate about removing it as others are, but it certainly has quite a strangehold on the tier, and the loss of Magearna/Cinderace really amps up its game defensively, making it the best it's ever been in OU, in my opinion.
While most people have shown a worry for Toxapex--me included--I find myself worried about Urshifu as well. While Urshifu is by no means a broken Pokemon in of itself, its offensive prowess is an incredible boon for the tier that provides invaluable wallbreaking for sweepers like Volcarona that allow for offensive teams to thrive so powerfully in a domineering fashion that allows for it to mold itself into Balanced Offense, Semi-stall, and general Balance perfectly. We definitely need more time with it, especially after the loss of Cinderace and Magearna, but I can see Urshifu getting out of control now that its outright game-changing, archetype crushing wallbreaking ability is being highlighted.
10. Have a nice day and I hope you all enjoy the new metagame!
Thank you and the rest of the council for doing a great job as usual!
I think, honestly, your guys's work is taken greatly for granted. I'm seeing a lot of posts criticizing your decisions, but I find myself agreeing with mostly every approach taken. Most of all though, I really appreciate you guys being so much more transparent than you've been in past generations, and letting us as the majority have a more direct role to play in tiering. Thank you again! :D