Official LonelyNess Pre Season Predictions:
I broke down the teams into 4 tiers, then did a full season pick'em based on said tiers (Away teams beat teams 2+ tiers below them. Home team wins otherwise.) It's not a perfect system but in most cases, the "clearly better team" wins when they're away, and when the waters are muddied, the home team wins in "even" matchups, so it's the best way to determine things imo.
Anyway let's get to my tiers:
Best Teams in Football (these teams are in no particular order):
Philly
Green Bay
Seattle
These three teams seem to be far and away the best. They have the most complete rosters and have an incredible advantage on one half of the ball and serviceable / above average play on the other half (Offense on Philly / Green Bay, Defense on Seattle). I expect one of these three teams to be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl this year (go Packers)
Missing just a little:
Indianapolis
New England
Cincy
Denver
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Kansas City
Houston
Dallas
Detroit
Minnesota
Arizona
Miami
Buffalo
San Diego
These are what I would consider the "playoff contenders" group. I don't think any of these teams have what the three in the top tier have in terms of roster but they could all make it to the playoffs and a good run could land them in the superbowl. They all have competitive rosters however some of them are kind of doomed due to schedule and some of them are gifted with an amazing schedule (hello Indy). Given that I didn't put any of the AFC Reps in the above tier, I would expect the AFC Representative to come out of this tier.
Missing a lot:
Giants
New Orleans
Atlanta
St. Louis
NYJ
Ok, a quick aside to "missing a lot". I think these teams have a few good pieces but are missing huge swaths of roster slots to where they are not going to be very good. New Orleans / Giants / Atlanta are going to be fairly inept on defense, while St. Louis and NYJ are offensive shitholes. Given that this is the highest that an NFC South team has appeared on my tier list SOMEONE has to make it out of there, but I don't expect them to do much of anything in the postseason.
Shitholes:
Oakland
San Francisco
Cleveland
Washington
Chicago
Tennessee
Jacksonville
Tampa Bay
Carolina
The absolute ass of the NFL. All have gaping problems on both sides of the ball being the most inept defensively and offensively. None of these teams has playoff hopes. And yes, I did intend to put Carolina here. They have absolutely nothing going for them on offense and their defense looks worse and worse every year removed from their 12-4 season. Cam Newton is still going to be a fantasy darling though, because he'll rush for 1000 yards.
So, let's get down to brass tax and predict playoff teams and final records:
AFC East:
Miami (2): 11-5
Buffalo (5): 11-5
New England: 9-7
NYJ: 8-8
New England is missing the post season, boys. A brutal schedule, Tom Brady's inevitable decline (the man is too old to be amazing forever it's GOTTA HAPPEN EVENTUALLY), the stacked rosters of Miami and Buffalo after years of top 10 picks will finally end the Patriots longtime stranglehold on the AFC East. I am super high on Tannehil and the Miami Offense this year, and their defense will be very good with Suh in the game. The Bills have what is possibly the best roster in football if QB wasn't a thing that mattered and I think that now that they've finally got a true #1 RB behind the line of scrimage, they'll finally be able to play the ball they've wanted to for the last 2-3 years when they've been just on the cusp of playoff-hood. Also Rex Ryan has to make it to the post season and inevitably the Championship game this year so that he can ride that success to 5 consecutive losing seasons.
AFC North:
Cincinnati (4) 11-5
Baltimore: 10-6
Pittsburgh: 10-6
Cleveland: 3-13
Cincinatti will ride its #3 in division cupcake schedule to another division win even though I think Baltimore is ultimately the better team, but thems the breaks when schedules are such an important thing. Notable that Pittsburgh will also lose their playoff spot from last year, because while I think they have a ludicrously talented offense, their defense is not poised to get much better and they're starting with a fairly hampered 2 game deficit from their Le'Veon Bell suspension. In such a close division those two games will come back to bite them come January and they'll be sadly sitting on the sidelines.
AFC South:
Indianapolis (1): 12-4
Houston (6): 10-6 (won the tie breaker vs. Bal/Pit/KC on Conference Record)
Tennessee: 4-12
Jacksonville: 3-13
Indianapolis will continue to raw dog this division until a true third threat emerges and I'm not about to hand that title over to Blake "Worse than Gabbart" Bortles, or a rookie QB anytime soon. Houston has key home games vs. slightly better opponents that will allow it to take many of the tie breakers and has away games vs. people they should roflstomp, so I am thinking they grab the last wildcard.
AFC West:
Denver (3): 11-5
Kansas City: 10-6
San Diego: 10-6
Oakland: 2-14
This is actually the division I am least confident in predicting, and mostly because of Oakland. If Derek Carr makes the leap, he, Amari Cooper, and Latavius Murray could actually resemble a genuine NFL Offense (and I'd probably put them in tier 3, maybe even 2). However I am of the sound mind that I need to see it before I believe it, so until then I'm expecting the stout defense of Denver expertly game managed by an aging Peyton Manning and a hearty run game to win the day, with good but not great San Diego and KC losing out due to tiebreakers with other good but not great teams.
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NFC East:
Philadelphia (2): 13-3
Dallas (6): 10-6
NY Giants: 7-9
Washington: 4-12
I expect soft fall from grace for Dallas because they don't have a true RB1, Tony Romo is aging, and the defense is still bad (though Greg Hardy will be a welcome addition) but it doesn't take MUCH talent to run with that offensive line, and that will keep opposing offenses off the field enough to where their defense won't be exposed as much (think last year, but worse). I am hype as fuck on Philly this year, this is 100% contingent on Bradford staying alive but he's got a much better offensive line than he ever did in St. Louis so here's hoping they keep the guy upright for once in his career. Giants have a good offense but way too many questions on defense to be a serious contender this year... unless Eli Manning just goes apeshit to Odell (completely possible). The Redskins are a dumpster fire.
NFC North:
Green Bay (1): 13-3
Detroit: 9-7
Minnesota: 7-9
Chicago: 2-14
Detroit losing Suh is going to hurt them more than people think, and I think Calvin Johnson is on the decline since his monster 2012 season - he always seems to be getting foot injuries lately and those are the injuries that just keep popping up. Green Bay is going to take the loss of Jordy Nelson in stride and have incredibly key home games to all of their most difficult opponents (their most difficult road games are Denver/Detroit/Minnesota) which poise them for a great record imo. Chicago is a dumpster fire and I fucking love watching it burn.
NFC South:
New Orleans (4): 9-7
Tampa Bay: 7-9
Atlanta: 6-10
Carolina: 4-12
Most difficult division to predict. I went with the Saints over the other teams because I think their offense is the most "complete" at least. Good running backs, good WRs, a healthy (albeit aging) Drew Brees. Their defense has its woes but so do all of the teams in this division. Someone's gotta win and I think it'll be them.
NFC West:
Arizona (3): 12-4
Seattle (5): 11-5
St. Louis: 6-10
San Francisco: 3-13
If the injury bug leaves Arizona the fuck alone this season I think they win this division, despite Seattle being in a tier above them in terms of roster strength. Seattle's home/away schedule is absolutely BRUTAL (Away games to: Green Bay / Detroit / Dallas / Cincy and of course their divisional matchups) catching absolutely no breaks on having away games to opponents they should handily beat regardless of venue. I think this, compounded by Arizona's comparatively easier schedule leaves them losing out on the division, and ultimately any hope of the Super Bowl due to lack of home field advantage. I could be wrong though. St. Louis has no QB, no WRs, and an injured RB Carousel. They have a bitchin defense, but without any offense they'll lose every game 6 to 9 and be the most boring team to watch in the history of ever.
San Francisco is a dumpster fire and I fucking love it.
Ok so that makes the playoffs look like this:
AFC:
1. Indy
2. Miami
3. Denver
4. Cincy
5. Buffalo
6. Houston
NFC:
1. Green Bay
2. Philly
3. Arizona
4. New Orleans
5. Seattle
6. Dallas
Without New England in the post season Indy emerges from the AFC. Given that the #3/4/6 seeds in the NFC bracket are warm weather dome teams travelling to open air cold teams and those have like an 85% loss rate I'll assume it's a Green Bay / Philly NFC Championship game. Complete tossup if there ever was one imo but as a homer I can't help but say Green Bay > Philly
Green Bay > Indy in the Super Bowl let's get it.