hey Gabe before you triple post you might want to think "am I being a dumb boring sycophant" first instead
I was just looking at this stuff at random and accidentally discovered that the Lakers sucked the last two years for clear reasons
analyzed by pace: (I was too lazy to list what series everything but finals was, some were still conference championships obviously)
(also got lazier and lazier with formatting but whatever, all the results are accurate and I missed some 80s finals but I was way too lazy to do more than Lakers/Celtics at that point)
Heat: 2010-2011 - 20th lost finals, 2011-2012 - 16th won finals
Mavericks: 2005-2006 - 27th lost finals (refjob tho'), 2006-2007 - 28th, 2007-2008 - 24th, 2008-2009 - 16th, 2009-2010 - 17th, 2010-2011 - 18th won finals
Lakers: 2006-2007 - 8th, 2007-2008 - 6th lost finals, 2008-2009 - 5th won finals, 2009-2010 - 14th won finals [fell to 21st/20th after this and irrelevant, old Kobe or loss of a PG or something]
Celtics: 2007-2008 - 19th won finals, 2008-2009 18th, 2009-2010 22nd lost finals, 2010-2011 22nd, 2011-2012 21st
Heat: 2003-2004 - 23rd, 2004-2005 - 15th, 2005-2006 - 12th won finals (not really tho'), 2006-2007 25th, 2007-2008 22nd
Pistons: 2002-2003 - 29th lost conference championship, 2003-2004 24th won finals, 2004-2005 30th lost finals, 2005-2006 29th lost conference finals, 2006-2007 30th lost conference finals, 2007-2008 30th lost conference finals [or how to squander the best team in basketball]
Spurs: 1997-1998 23rd lose round 2, 1998-1999 19th won finals, 1999-2000 lose round 1 at 24th, 2000-2001 lose finals at 23rd, 2001-2002 lose round 2 at 19th, 2002-2003 win finals at 20th, 2003-2004 lose round 2 at 19th, 2004-2005 win finals at 23rd, 2005-2006 lose round 2 at 23rd, 2006-2007 win finals at 27th, 2007-2008 lose round 3 at 28th, 2009-2010 lose round 1 at 26th, 2009-2010 lose round 2 at 20th, 2010-2011 lose round 1 at 14th, 2011-2012 lose conference champoinship at 7th [just think these results are so funny they all needed to be there]
Lakers: 1997-1998 lose round 3 at 1st, 1998-1999 lose round 2 at 2nd, 1999-2000 win finals at 14th, 2000-2001 win finals at 14th, 2001-2002 win finals at 6th, 2002-2003 lose round 2 at 8th, 2003-2004 lose finals at 6th
Bulls: L round 2 Pistons 23rd, L finals to Pistons 23rd, L finals to Pistons 17th, win finals 19th, win finals 22nd, w finals 27th, jordan disappears, jordan comes back too late, 20th w finals, 18th w finals, 22nd w finals
Rockets: 19th no playoffs, 24th L round 2, 15th W finals no bull, 10th W finals no bull, 10th L round 2, 8th L round 3
Pistons: 4th L round 2, 5th L round 1, 13th L round 3, 14th L finals, 25th W finals, 26th W finals, 27th L round 3, 27th L round 1
Lakers: W finals at 8 4 9 10 11 getting way too lazy for this
Celtics: W finals at 16 15 16
Teams who are top 7-8 in pace usually need to fall below top 10 to win a finals (only teams with HoF talents have a chance of defying, and they still are usually playing too fast if they have not won a finals yet); teams who are too low in pace, particularly less than 22-23, usually need to rise above that pace to win a finals. Particularly offensive teams should be around 5-15 and defensive teams should be around 15-23 (this seems to be an easier place to get to general), also when teams got stuck in a slower pace than they were previously playing at it usually meant that the team was losing its desire to win anymore, or that stars were getting old but nothing was replacing them in the team to compensate, stuff like that. Obviously there is no absolute golden rule, but you can usually take a 2-3 year window and see if a team has already run its course, and the Lakers have. As long as it is "Kobe's team" they are not going to see a finals, and if Bryant would actually do that and Howard would actually even care to take charge well then call me surprised. If the Lakers play the 19th-20th fastest pace in the league again they should not make it out of round 2 of the playoffs.
For all the shit I have given the Grizzlies, their pace falling 10-->15-->18 by last season was fantastic for a team that should be defense first. If they can get down to about 20-24 this season while choking the life out of teams they should have a real shot at mattering. Clippers were a mess last season (27th), Nuggets were 2nd and 2nd a.k.a. irrelevant. Thunder probably need to slow down, they got out of control several times in the playoffs last season (6th pace). Spurs too. The Rockets have slowed down a little up to this season and have a fairly solid coach and front office situation.
This deserved its own line...Portland played the slowest pace in the league for three seasons 2008-2009 through 2010-2011 with Brandon fucking Roy and Aldridge on the same team!!. Basically the equivalent of keeping your toys in their shrink wrap. They lost three straight round 1s for a fucking reason.
Indiana was at the right place last season but they do not have the defensive talent to make it work. Chicago was at a great place in 2010-2011 and then Rose was injured and they ended at 28th. Heat were obviously at the right place, they are the only team that totally has a probable shot at winning with any pace they choose this season (I think faster, Lebron and Wade have their issues very well worked out at this point). The Knicks play stupidly fast, ruined Amare Stoudemire's life doing so, and are never going to win a god fucking damn thing unless they slow down from 2-5 to 12-15. Philly plays too slow, they need to cohere more, their defense is not consistent enough to play at the 23-24 pace they keep falling to. The Bucks played 25th fastest in 2010-2011 then 3rd fastest in 2011-2012, that shit is stupid given no coaching changes and just losing Bogut, and they need to find themselves and stop letting Brandon Jennings play like a moron.
tl;dr captkirby best analysizer