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Ubers Survivor

Discussion in 'BW Ubers' started by Dracoyoshi8, Nov 27, 2012.

  1. ChuckHades

    ChuckHades

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    Dialga is definitely the most likely to win its 1v1. It can take literally any hit (even the Blissey Boxer can't come close to OHKOing), and OHKO Palkia back with Draco Meteor, or even Dragon Pulse.

    As for the least likely, it has to be Groudon (to be honest, it's not a very fair matchup, but it does make sense). The ONLY set that could defeat Kyogre would be a gimmick, like max speed Focus Sash SD, or Passho Berry SD, or something that no-one in their right mind would run. Groudon CAN beat Kyogre, but it is the least likely to here.

    I'd say Groudon is closely followed by Zekrom though. Because we haven't been told our opponent's set, we have to prepare for the worst. In which case, Zekrom at best will have a 50/50 chance of winning, due to speed ties. It can't reliably beat Reshiram, and that puts it at a very close second worst spot.

    As a general thought, who is everyone backing to win the whole thing? My money's on Dialga; it's the most versatile pokemon in the game that isn't called Mew. It has the same raw power as Reshiram, one half the typing of Ferrothorn, the speed of Kyogre, and the ability to run more viable sets than any form of Arceus. The only scenario I can see it losing in is an "everybody beat up Dialga" contest.
  2. Faint

    Faint Valar morghulis
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    This will be my first time participating in this thread. :)

    Dialga --> Palkia
    Groudon --> Kyogre
    Zekrom --> Reshiam
    Giratina-O --> Giratina
    Manaphy --> Ho-oh
    Mewtwo --> Darkrai

    Dialga vs. Palkia:

    As previously stated, dialga should win this fairly easily. The only "likely" scenario where I can see Palkia winning is when it's holding choice specs vs. a dialga with no spdef investent (HP can be maxed, it won't matter).
    Show Hide
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Palkia Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Dialga: 418-493 (103.46 - 122.02%) -- guaranteed OHKO

    But if we are using the more common sets such as scarf palkia vs. defensive dialga, spacial rend can only hit 44% max, so unless palkia is holding lustrous orb while dialga switches in, dialga can ko with draco meteor.

    Groudon vs Kyogre:

    This can go both ways. I feel like speed is more important than weather in this scenario, because even if groudon has the sun up kyogre can 2hko with ice beam. It doesn't NEED to rely on it's water stabs. But at the same time CB groudon has a 75% chance to ohko 4 hp kyogre with earthquake, so it's not nearly as one-sided as many of you may think.

    If kyogre is resttalk with max def, it NEEDS a scald burn to win. It will fail to ohko groudon in the rain (with scald) without any boost or invesment, while it will always be 2hko'd by CB earthquake in return.
    Show Hide
    252+ Atk Choice Band Groudon Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kyogre: 231-273 (57.17 - 67.57%) -- guaranteed 2HKO


    Zekrom vs Reshiram:

    Seems like another 50/50 shot. Speed will be the determining factor here, as they both clearly ohko eachother with their dragon stabs.

    Giratina-O vs Giratina

    Giratina-o should take this one fairly easily, as even specially defensive giratina is 2hko'd by draco meteor. This is assuming max spa with a neutral nature.
    Show Hide
    252 SpA Griseous Orb Giratina-O Draco Meteor vs. 248 HP / 252+ SpD Giratina: 330-390 (65.6 - 77.53%) -- guaranteed 2HKO


    Manaphy vs Ho-Oh

    Seems pretty weather reliant, so it can go both ways. but I would give the advantage to manaphy, since brave bird fails to ohko and the recoil from the move would allow manaphy to 2hko with surf (assuming no weather).

    Mewtwo vs Darkrai

    Darkrai fails to ohko mewtwo with dark pulse, while mewtwo is faster and can ohko darkrai with lo aura sphere. If the darkrai is holding choice scarf and the mewtwo is not carrying life orb, mewtwo only has a very slim chance of winning, since it only has an 18% chance to ohko with aura sphere, plus it needs to avoid getting flinched by dark pulse. regardless, the advantage goes to mewtwo.
  3. Daggerfall

    Daggerfall

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    Mantzik pretty much summed up everything I was going to say to Riley, so I suppose there's no reason to say anything else there. However, voting doesn't start for another three days, one hour, and 4 minutes. :P

    Chuck: Personally, I'd like Mewtwo to win. Ever since I stuck one on one of my teams, I've absolutely loved it. However, I can't really have any bias because I'm the one currently in charge. It would kinda ruin the whole point if I made the challenges easy for who I want to win.

    Faint: Welcome to the thread. I hope you enjoy it. ^^
    As for Manaphy vs Ho-oh, there will be no weather. As I said before, they won't have any support. Well, unless Rain Dance Manaphy or Sunny Day Ho-oh is used. But that's like running Solarbeam on Groudon.

    Also, don't forget that Darkrai can hold a Sash and use Dark Void on Mewtwo. Since it has fairly reliable accuracy, it can be used to stop Mewtwo when Dark Pulse can't.
  4. Kebabe

    Kebabe
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    Dialga has to be the winner of this round, a scarf set can not possibly loose. It KO:s scarf Palka and can take any hit. Scarf outspeeds and KO:s any Palkia with a boosting item and can take any hit if it doesnt have any. It also 2HKO Haban or even sash.
  5. blitzlefan

    blitzlefan shake it off!

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    Dialga's got this in the bag... lack of a Dragon weakness means that Dialga will reliably beat Palkia in basically any scenario. But perhaps Lum Berry Mewtwo could beat Darkrai if Aura Sphere 2HKOS and Darkrai Dark Void's on the first turn. But Dialga would be my vote.

    @ ChuckHades
    Thanks! Internet Explorer --> no damage calculator. I didn't realize Darkrai was that frail. When you put it that way... there's pretty much no way Mewtwo can lose this, especially since Aura Sphere has perfect accuracy so no worries there.
  6. ChuckHades

    ChuckHades

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    252 SpA Lum Berry Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Darkrai: 244-288 (86.52 - 102.12%) -- 18.75% chance to OHKO

    252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo Aura Sphere vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Darkrai: 317-374 (112.41 - 132.62%) -- guaranteed OHKO

    If Mewtwo runs Timid Life Orb, it wins against every Darkrai. Lum Berry isn't needed because Mewtwo kills Darkrai before it moves. Scarf Darkrai can never OHKO with Dark Pulse either. Mewtwo is probably the second most likely to win actually.
  7. Daggerfall

    Daggerfall

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    Again, Focus Sash. Regardless of how much damage is dealt, Focus Sash will make sure the holder survives any and all single-hit attacks at full health. Since there's no prior damage, Darkrai can and will be able to fire off a Dark Void/Pulse at Mewtwo. It has 80% accuracy, but that's plenty reliable.
  8. ChuckHades

    ChuckHades

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    Turn 1
    Mewtwo used Aura Sphere!
    It's Super Effective!
    Darkrai hung on using its Focus Sash!
    Darkrai used Dark Void!
    Mewtwo Fell Asleep!

    Turn 2
    Mewtwo is fast asleep.
    Darkrai used Dark Pulse!
    It's Super Effective!
    Mewtwo survives, because it will never die to an unboosted Dark Pulse!

    Now we have a scenario where Darkrai only has a 50/50 chance to win, because Mewtwo can wake up this turn (5th gen sleep mechanics, if I'm not mistaken, means that Mewtwo has an equal chance to wake up on the second and third turn, with a guaranteed wake on the fourth). Thus, Darkrai's best set in this scenario only has a 50/50 chance of winning. And this is assuming Dark Void hits; it's the same accuracy as Stone Edge. If we incorporate Dark Void misses into the probability too, then Darkrai only has a 45% chance of beating Mewtwo with the Sash set one on one.

    What does this mean? It means that in the worst possible scenario, Mewtwo still wins 55% of the time. I actually don't even think Dialga can boast that claim (Specs Palkia versus Standard support Dialga is a Palkia win 90% of the time due to Draco Misses). When voting comes, I may have to go for Mewtwo actually.

    Also, I think when considering the matchups, voters should be considering the worst possible scenario. For instance, the close matchup between Manaphy and Ho-Oh becomes more difficult for Manaphy to win if Ho-Oh is banded. Or if Giratina O is specs. Even if it seems ridiculous, take it into consideration.
  9. urdrakonis

    urdrakonis

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    As Chuck mentioned, Mewtwo can run Lum Berry, still outspeed and, at worst, 2HKO Darkrai.

    Also,
    252 SpA Modest Darkrai's Dark Pulse vs. 128 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 324-384 (84.16 - 99.74%) -- No OHKO

    Mewtwo won't need Max SpA if Darkrai is running sash. After surviving Dark Pulse, it can easily 2HKO with Aura Sphere.
  10. Faint

    Faint Valar morghulis
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    bad dreams.
  11. drcossack

    drcossack I'm everywhere, you ain't never there

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    Uh, how?
  12. ChuckHades

    ChuckHades

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    Lol, my bad, I forgot that it needed Griseous Orb. Even so, you get the point.

    252 SpA Darkrai Dark Pulse vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 294-348 (83.05 - 98.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

    Mewtwo has a chance to live the Bad Dreams, I'm not doing the exact probability right now, but I'd say it's around a 33% chance. That means LO Mewtwo would win in around 51.65% of matches (33/20, the chance of a Dark Void miss added on to the original 50%), which is still a majority.

    Bear in mind this is all assuming Life Orb, against Sash then Lum berry wins every time.
  13. urdrakonis

    urdrakonis

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    Btw, Scarf 252+ Gira-A Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Gira-O: 420-494 (95.24 - 112.02%) -- 68.75% chance to OHKO

    However, Gira-A Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Gira-O: 420-494 (83.33 - 98.02%) -- No OHKO

    Then, it can rest up and start using Calm Mind, while choice-locked Gira-A's Draco grows weaker. They can both utilise the same sets and counter accordingly. Honestly, I don't think there's a clear winner in this match up.
  14. Daggerfall

    Daggerfall

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    Wow, seven people viewing this thread alongside a heated discussion. I'm impressed.

    Although I do see some merit in considering which monster can come out on top in the worst possible matchup, that would occasionally make some stupid things appear. For example, take the last round. Focus Sash + Counter Blissey was mentioned in it, but it's not something that would realistically be used. Due to things like that, I generally believe that standard should be the primary set to be considered. However, you raise a point. Perhaps the worst possible realistic scenario should be taken into consideration as well? That way we can avoid gimmicks that are only to counter a certain monster in a certain way, yet still have something that threatens it while serving a purpose on the team beyond a very specific issue. We can avoid silly things like SunnyBeam Ho-oh battling Manaphy whilst still having bad scenarios.
  15. Kebabe

    Kebabe
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    LO recoil+bad dreams+dark pulse, youre not going to survive that.
  16. ChuckHades

    ChuckHades

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    Oh my, you're right, I forgot about the recoil, my bad.

    I should really go to bed now, I'm messing up these calcs, urgh. Hopefully I can post some relevant probabilities for you all tomorrow.

    EDIT: Daggerfall, that sounds good, there needs to be some benchmark, other wise pokes that can run multiple sets effectively will make the winner unclear. So, assume each poke is in the worst possible realistic scenario.
  17. shrang

    shrang Defend the Headquarters of Revolution
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    Just saying, Palkia does have a chance to win if it's carrying a Haban Berry. Modest Palkia with 252 HP / 140 SpA / 116 SpD can always take a Specs Draco Meteor from Dialga if it holds a Haban Berry, and can 2HKO Dialga with Focus Blast. But yeah, it's a pretty ridiculous scenario, so I'd go with Dialga too.

    Actually, Sash Palkia can outspeed and 2HKO Dialga with Focus Blast. I need to stop theorymoning, lol.
  18. tehy

    tehy

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    I was actually thinking of bringing up sash palkia myself, but couldn't dialga just be ev'd to take two focus blasts while still OHKO'ing non-sash palkia?

    After thinking about this for a few minutes... why not just run a modest 252 spA scarf set that barely outspeeds timid unscarf palkia, with the rest of the speed evs in SpD? Assuming that avoids the 2hitko, that basically locks down palkia. And is incredibly non-standard, so there's that (Not like sash palkia w/focus blast is uber common either though)

    Edit (But what about scarf palkia VS. Scarf Dialga? SpD evs are there for that, essentially)

    And i don't think it matters whether or not people lead with mewtwo;i'm pretty sure it's assumed they both come in after a death, or maybe both double switch in.
  19. urdrakonis

    urdrakonis

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    Sash Palkia is 2HKO'd by Scarf Dialga's Dragon Pulse anyway.

    So if only realistic scenarios are to be considered, random sash-mons would be disregarded.

    Lead Darkrai does run sash but few would run Lum on Mewtwo. On the other hand, realistically, how many people would use Mewtwo as a lead?

    When is Gira-A used as an offensive mon? Although it has the potential to beat standard Gira-Os, it would be pathetic in any other realistic situation.

    Heh, I quite like the idea. Should put a stop to all our ridiculous theorymonning. Also loosens up the Giratina stalemate, leaving only the Reshiram and Zekrom matchup on which to ponder.
  20. Daggerfall

    Daggerfall

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    Tehy: Since there's no support or prior damage, both monsters will either be the lead, on a double switch, or entering after a double KO.

    Mantzik: I run Lum on Mewtwo, and actually lead against Darkrai, Dialga, Groudon (if Ice Beam), and Kyogre (if Thunder).

    As for Reshiam and Zekrom, I think that it's a tie. The only way one would win would be to run a positive Speed nature while the other runs a neutral Speed nature.
  21. ChuckHades

    ChuckHades

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    After considering things, now I'm leaning towards Dialga again, my god, I'm more flip floppity than Mitt Romney in a pancake house. Scarf Dialga cannot lose to even Haban Berry (a very viable set) Palkia. Either Palkia is not scarfed or Haban, in which case Dialga outspeeds and OHKOs. Or, Palkia is scarfed, in which case Dialga can take any hit and OHKO. Or, Palkia is running Haban, in which case Dialga outspeeds, takes a hit and KOs the next turn. The same principle applies to Sash Palkia too, even though that's not worth considering. I'm pretty sure this seals the round for Dialga.

    Reshiram and Zekrom is completely contingent on the speed. Whoever outspeeds wins. I'm gonna say Reshiram JUST edges it though, because it takes less from an Outrage than Zekrom does from a Draco Meteor. It sounds silly, and it is a silly way of splitting them, but in the absurd scenario where both pokes are running defensive sets, Reshiram will win. Honestly though, if someone could find a better way to split them, that would be great.
  22. Daggerfall

    Daggerfall

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    Well, I realized something I should've realized a long while ago. Zekrom just barely edges an advantage, thanks to Outrage having 100% accuracy over Draco Meteor's 90%.
  23. rileydelete

    rileydelete

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    Wow, that's a interesting point. D. Meteor is 90% accurate. I still think it's all about who moves faster, but Zekrom has a slight edge.

    Still, I think Dialga is the most one to reliably win this round. Perhaps he'll win the whole thing. I definitely see it as possible.
  24. urdrakonis

    urdrakonis

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    Neutral 252 SpA Reshiram Dragon Pulse vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Zekrom: 326-386 (95.6 - 113.2%) -- 75% chance to OHKO

    Zekrom's Outrage is certain to OHKO though.
  25. Daggerfall

    Daggerfall

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    Voting for immunity of this round will now begin! Remember to assume that all battles must be using realistic sets. No silly things like SunnyBeam Ho-oh should be considered. Votes must be in bold or they will not count. Reasoning is preferred, but not required. Voting will go on until Saturday, January 12th, at 6 P.M.

    To recap, the challenge is as such:
    SCENARIO THREE:
    Envious of their counterparts taking place in a contest, a rival Pokemon has appeared for each contestant! The rules of the battles are simple: One on one battles, with no prior damage or support. Each Pokemon has full health, any four moves, and an item of their choice. Crits are considered below the belt, and are thus grounds for disqualification.

    Now, as for the counterparts, I'll list them below.
    Dialga --> Palkia
    Groudon --> Kyogre
    Zekrom --> Reshiam
    Giratina-O --> Giratina
    Manaphy --> Ho-oh
    Mewtwo --> Darkrai


    Riley, please wait until voting starts to cast your vote. If you still believe Dialga will win, then I'll count it without you posting it. Just don't do it again. :P

    ...come to think of it, how should we use immunity? Any suggestions?

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