If anyone was wondering, here was my team and my battles:
Leads:
Groudon @ Lum Berry
Jolly
252 Atk, 252 Spd, 4 HP
- Earthquake
- Protect
- Rock Slide
- Dragon Claw (was deciding between this and Shadow Claw, never really needed either)
Lugia @ Leftovers
Calm
212 HP, 212 Spd (enough to outspeed Groudon by 1 point), 84 Sp Def
- Protect
- Aeroblast
- Icy Wind
- Swagger
Other dudes:
Metagross @ Shuca Berry
Brave (0 Speed IV)
212 Atk (I think), some combination of HP and Sp Def that I don't remember atm
- Protect
- Bullet Punch
- Earthquake
- Explosion
Shedinja @ Focus Sash
Adamant
255 Attack, 255 Speed
- Protect
- X-Scissor
- Shadow Sneak
- Sunny Day
My basic strategy was to protect with Groudon turn 1 and use Icy Wind to make my opponent's slower than me. Then I would use Swagger on Groudon and start raping with EQ/RS. I was prepared to face many kinds of teams and adjust accordingly, but it turns out that I mispredicted the ScarfOgre matchup. I also had these two guys that I never used:
Mewtwo @ Life Orb
Modest (WHY DO PEOPLE USE TIMID, THERE IS LITERALLY NOTHING YOU OUTSPEED WITH TIMID THAT YOU DON'T WITH MODEST EXCEPT FOR WEAVILE, WHO CANNOT OHKO YOU)
252 Sp Atk, 252 Speed, 4 HP
- Grass Knot
- Flamethrower
- Protect
- Blizzard
Abomasnow @ Focus Sash (I would obviously never use Aboma and Shed at the same time. I used a Chesto Berry as my 6th item)
Quiet (0 Speed IV)
252 Sp Atk, 252 HP, 4 Sp Def
- Blizzard
- Grass Knot
- Protect
- Ice Shard
My battles were as follows:
Round 1 (vs some youngish kid who sees my duck shirt and declares that he is going to lose):
Opponent sent out Cresselia and Groudon (shiny)!
Knowing I was going to be faster, I just went ahead and Swagger'd turn 1. I thought he would protect with Groudon turn 1, so I chose Rock Slide.
Lugia used Swagger (attack raise, Lum cures)!
Groudon used Rock Slide!
Foe Groudon used Rock Polish (!!!)
Foe Cresselia Flinched! (neither of his dudes got hurt particularly badly from RS, Cress took maybe 20% or so)
So now I want to kill Groudon ASAP, so I Icy Wind and EQ.
Foe switched Groudon for Metagross!
Lugia used Icy Wind (missed Meta, hit cress for minimal damage)!
Groudon used Earthquake (OHKO on Meta)!
Foe Cresselia used Light Screen!
Opponent sent out Groudon!
I decide to go for the Icy Wind/EQ again, knowing I have a pretty solid lead here and Cress isn't going to do much to me.
Foe Cresselia used Helping Hand!
Lugia used Icy Wind (not too much damage to either pokemon due to LS)!
Groudon (mine) used Earthquake (kills his Groudon)!
Opponent sent out Lugia!
I know I have the match at this point, so I just use Icy Wind and Rock Slide.
Foe Cresselia used Protect!
Lugia (mine) used Icy Wind!
Groudon used Rock Slide! (his Lugia is at half health now)
Foe Lugia used Calm Mind!
Lugia used Icy Wind!
Groudon used Rock Slide! (Lugia dies, Cress is at a little less than half now I think)
Cresselia used some non-damaging move!
Lugia used Aeroblast!
Groudon used Dragon Claw!
So yeah, I won my first round without taking a single point of damage, which felt really good. It gave me some confidence going into...
Round 2 (vs some old dude named Danny who ended up making top 16):
Opponent sent out Kyogre and Hitmontop! (Scarfogre, so it is sunny)
Heh, I have a plan here. I think I have a solid chance here, but that will quickly change. I move along according to plan:
Lugia used Protect!
Groudon used Protect!
Kyogre used Water Spout!
Hitmontop used Fake Out! (targeting Groudon)
OK, all good. Now I switch to Shedinja and Aeroblast top, while he Water Spouts and uses Mach or Sucker Punch on Groudon... right? Why wouldn't he keep the pressure on me?
Opponent switches Kyogre for Abomasnow!
FFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUU-
Groudon switches for Shedinja!
Hitmontop used Sucker Punch, but it failed! (targeting Groudon)
Lugia used Aeroblast! (~75% damage)
Everything is hurt by Hail!
I sent out Metagross!
So now I am mad at myself for losing Shed so easily. My plan was to use Sunny Day on turn 3 to protect myself from the incoming Abomasnow (because I knew my opponent was playing an exact clone of Paul's team), while his Sucker Punch failed. However, my opponent must have seen something I didn't and decided to completely catch me off guard. Nevertheless, I still have a chance here... until I blow it. I convince myself that my opponent only switched out so that he could switch Kyogre back in and get control of the weather again. Thus, I figured he would switch one of his guys back to Kyogre, whom I had no definite answer for with Shedinja gone. I decided that I must explode with Meta this turn. It turns out that my opponent didn't know his types or something, because the turn went like this:
Lugia used Protect!
Hitmontop used Mach Punch! LUGIA PROTECTED ITSELF (seriously I am going to lose to this guy?!?!?! ugggghhh)
Metagross used Explosion! (Aboma's Sash activates)
Abomasnow used FUCKING GRASS KNOT! (who was he going to target with this, seriously?)
I sent out Groudon!
Opponent sent out Palkia!
At this point I have very little hope. I need to hit Kyogre with Icy Wind and then Swagger Groudon on the next turn and smash it with EQ. I play accordingly:
Lugia used Icy Wind! (misses Palkia annoyingly, kills Abomasnow)
Palkia used Spacial Rend! (hits Lugia for ~25%)
Groudon used Earthquake! (hits Palkia for 50%)
Opponent sent out Kyogre!
So yeah, I am pretty much dead. I need to somehow get Icy Wind off while Protecting and then Swagger Groudon up and win. The final dagger came in the form of:
Groudon used Protect!
Foe Kyogre used Water Spout! It's a critical hit! (Lugia dies obviously)
Palkia used whatever!
I lost and was feeling terrible at this point =[ It didn't really help that a lot of the other Smogonites/Ducks lost early as well. It was refreshing to see the two Mikes, Skarm and OmegaDonut, as well as Andrea (godudette) make it through to the top 16. I was actually a bit annoyed that PBB got into the top 16 after the reentering the line incident (I'm sorry if that sounds petty, but that just bothers me so greatly). But I am having a great time regardless, hanging out with everyone is awesome and I am looking forward to cheering on Smogon to victory tomorrow and Sunday!