Indeed, that cycle I have to agree with but I personally think rain may be able to best TR with a bit of protecting/double attacking 1 pokies/brave azumaril/snorlax support. I am not saying this because it works on paper but because I have tried a new rain dance team and have been able to beat the some TR teams although I haven't tested much to say anything very firmly. But another thing about rain is that most of the pokies used in RD have very few weaknesses/are bulky/have weaknesses to typing that are not very common(eg, Ludicolo's weakness to flying).Just like every game, something naturally counters the other.
Goodstuff beats TR
TR beats Rain
Rain beats Goodstuff
That is the naturally order. I'm not saying those will always win, but they have a greater chance. Rain is all about out speeding the opponents and TR reverses the speed so slower pokemon go first, so it is a natural counter to it. Having rain week pokemon for your sweepers may be why most TR teams lose to RD. I run marowak + HH Uxie on my TR team and it does pretty well. I haven't lost to a rain team before I believe. I know I beat Raist a lot using it.
I completely agree with your cycle and I know TR has bulky pokies as well but I think RD can have a bulky approach as well, rather than just the increase speed and sweep approach, which I think is the better approach. Plus RD makes water typing go on crack as well while TR doesn't give any boosts and damp rock helps.
@Naso: DAMN, if only I could wear those costumes and dance blindly, would have been awesome. POKEMONBATTLEBRAIN, I will be there with you as well next year lol. I wonder though how Marriland got hired, he must have really stashed in some cash.