Tournament OMPL VIII - Week 7

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SectoniaServant

Vanity has such a hard price to bear...
is a Pre-Contributor
How this works
There are 8 teams this year. Each team will have have 6 players and at least 2 subs. The players are bought using the 80k credits that managers receive during the auction. Managers will be allowed to purchase themselves as players for their team at a fixed price of 16k but must assign one assistant manager from their drafted players. This may be done either during the auction or after it. Teams can win their matchup every week by winning 4 of the 6 matches that their players have to play.​
The tier lineup this year is as follows:​
  1. SS Almost Any Ability
  2. SS Balanced Hackmons
  3. SS Camomons
  4. SS Mix and Mega
  5. SS NFE
  6. SS STABmons
All games will be played on the Pokemon Showdown main server or SmogTours in the most current version of the format corresponding to those listed above. The result between players may be decided in a best-of-one or best-of-three at the discretion of both players involved. If there is no agreement, the result will decided in a Bo1 by default.​
Winning a round rewards a team with 2 points, drawing 1 point, and losing zero points. In addition, the manner in which the round has been won will also be recorded i.e. the difference between a team's wins and losses in a specific week's round (referred to as "Win Differential").​
Playoffs:​
Each team will play one another for seven weeks. Based on the final standings, the top 4 teams will enter a Playoffs Round to determine the teams appearing in the finals.​

Tiebreaker
In the event of two teams being tied for a spot in the finals based on points and win differential, or a tie in the final round itself, we will have a tiebreaker round(s).​

Tiebreaker Rules: The most played meta from usage stats plus one metagame picked by each manager will give a best-of-three game between the tied teams, ultimately deciding who goes onto finals. The three games must be different formats, i.e. the remaining two games cannot be the same as the most played metagame, and must be from the list above. Since SS Balanced Hackmons is most likely to be chosen by usage, the decision to play Bo3 or Bo1 is still left upto the players' discretion and bo1 remains by default.​

Substitutes
Substitutes are to be used in the case of "extenuating circumstances" which are unavoidable, whether on the first day of the week, or the last. Moreover, they should generally not be used with a tactical purpose of creating confusion in an opponent's team. At the same time, players should be relatively well-aware of who all are available to play in the opponent's camp. If last minute substitutes are being frequently used or abused and the hosts find explanations unsatisfactory, the hosts still reserve the right to veto them.​

Trades
If teams wish to conduct a trade, both managers (or assistant managers if the manager is not present) MUST PM Ransei and SectoniaServant on the FORUMS to have the trade be official. No trades may occur after the conclusion of week 2. A traded player may only feature in the round after they have been traded.​


Scheduling
Scheduling should be done on VM walls, plain and simple:​
  • If there is no communication on VM walls and a game goes undone, it will be left to the RNG to decide the winner
  • If there is communication on only one user's behalf, the win will go to them. Feel free to call activity in this thread beforehand
  • If there is a very healthy back and forth regarding potential times and one user is a no-show, a manager may take the opportunity to sub out the no-show competitor; if this is not done, the user that showed up responsibly will be awarded the win.
TL;DR: VM your opponents, schedule your matches, and be reliable. If you're not reliable, let your manager know so they can sub you out ASAP.​
Use these VM's to initiate discussion about bo1 or bo3 as well!

Sportsmanship
Exhibitions of unsportsmanlike conduct with regards to Other Metagame Premier League will be met with an infraction at the discretion of the OMPL host/OM mods. This is unlikely to include interactions within a team's private chat unless there is reason found to make an exception. This rule is meant to protect other users from being publicly flamed/bashed/provoked by another competitor for the duration of and following the tournament.​
All players must complete their matches by the given deadline. Any incomplete matches by that time will be subject to activity decision (MAKE SURE YOU POST ON YOUR OPPONENT'S VM WALL); otherwise, they will be decided via !pick publicly in the OM Room. All matches should ideally be done on your most notable alt (the one you registered for OMPL with) to avoid confusion and the replay must be saved and posted in this thread. The replays will be archived in a separate thread, and will be used to calculate usage stats.​

Substitutions & Lineups
Managers, if you wish to make any substitutions, you must post here tagging both the player you're subbing out, the player you're subbing in, the manager and assistant manager of the opposing team, the substitute's opponent, and myself. This is to assure that everyone is in-the-loop and that the OP is updated accordingly to reflect the new match-up.​
Managers, when you send in lineups, please send it in with the tier and Smogon username of each player fully written out for ease of transcription, in exactly the same order as laid out above. I will post instructions about sending the lineup for next week later this week.​

Matchups


The Temper Tyrantrums
(OM, drampa's grandpa) - [3][3] - The Malevolent Misdreavuses (Chazm, Euphonos)

SS Almost Any Ability: The Number Man vs rozes
SS Balanced Hackmons: Gurpreet Patel (Sent you a Friend Request) vs SuperSkylake
SS Camomons: Akashi vs Euphonos
SS Mix and Mega: Skysolo vs Chazm
SS NFE: Ho3nConfirm3d vs Tack :]
SS STABmons: drampa's grandpa (sub 1) vs Lasen

The Pandemic Parasects (Catalystic, Sylveon.) - [2][4] - The Klink Shamers (Chloe, Pigeons)

SS Almost Any Ability: Sabella vs TonyFlygon
SS Balanced Hackmons: sugarhigh vs jasprose
SS Camomons: Sylveon. vs a loser (sub 1)
SS Mix and Mega: MultiAmmiratore vs Pigeons
SS NFE: TJ vs anime sans
SS STABmons: Zesty43 vs Betathunder

The Money Magearnas
(Funbot28, GL Volkner) - [3][3] - The Spinda Wheels (xavgb, Jordy)

SS Almost Any Ability: Dragonillis vs vivalospride
SS Balanced Hackmons: GL Volkner vs PinkDragonTamer
SS Camomons: Matiss98 vs Havens
SS Mix and Mega: Gmansour20 vs Jordy
SS NFE: Crystalites vs King Leo V
SS STABmons: Funbot28 vs Alkione

The Head Honchkrows
(Jrdn, aesf) - [4][2] - The Crown Jewel Corviknights (SBPC, Andyboy)

SS Almost Any Ability: highlighter vs Thinkerino
SS Balanced Hackmons: aesf vs MAMP
SS Camomons: Jrdn vs MetaRiolu7
SS Mix and Mega: Highlord vs Andyboy
SS NFE: frisoeva vs Thimo
SS STABmons: Alternatif vs Terracotta


~ Deadline ~
11:59 PM (UTC -4) on May 31st, 2020
 
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Ran out of lines for intro so let's just say, 'predicts'

The Temper Tyrantrums
(OM, drampa's grandpa) - [4][2] - The Malevolent Misdreavuses (Chazm, Euphonos)

SS Almost Any Ability: The Number Man(40) vs rozes(60) - TNM still has a lot to do to gain trust and rozes is a big goat. Free big goat racool, you guys still need to qual smh.
SS Balanced Hackmons: Gurpreet Patel (Sent you a Friend Request)(60) vs SuperSkylake(40) - undefeated.
SS Camomons: Akashi(40) vs Euphonos(60) - Jeran did not stand upto his level in this tour, euph has be pretty good.
SS Mix and Mega: Skysolo (51) vs Chazm(49) - Close match which could go either way.
SS NFE: Ho3nConfirm3d (60) vs Tack :](40) - Tack was not able to capitalize despite having hax advantage in his previous game, ho3n has bad record but I still think he is pretty capable of winning.
SS STABmons: Plas(51) vs Lasen(49) - undefeated plas the puppy big goat, sry lasen cannot bold here cause plas is friend too :3

The Pandemic Parasects (Catalystic, Sylveon.) - [5][1] - The Klink Shamers (Chloe, Pigeons)

SS Almost Any Ability: Sabella (60) vs TonyFlygon(40) - Cute sans gets to play nfe so Tony is in AAA now, unfort he has to play another player who is a big tour goat too and actually has been playing the tier from the start.
SS Balanced Hackmons: sugarhigh (49) vs jasprose(51) - Yay jasp is free. Cute user bias used here.
SS Camomons: Sylveon. (60) vs DugZa(40) - Syl too good, might be in blaze mode after losing to jrdn.
SS Mix and Mega: MultiAmmiratore (51) vs Pigeons(49) Close game, only a slight edge. Could go either way tbh.
SS NFE: TJ (51)vs anime sans(49) - Heat player vs cute user who bring weird heat stuff. I wish weird stuff wins but unfortunately it does not most times :(
SS STABmons: Zesty43 (55) vs Betathunder(45) - Small edge.

Although klinks performed super bad, no one can deny that they have way too many cute users.

The Head Honchkrows (Jrdn, aesf) - [3][3] - The Crown Jewel Corviknights (SBPC, Andyboy)

SS Almost Any Ability: highlighter (55) vs Thinkerino (45) -highlighter is a little better I think.
SS Balanced Hackmons: aesf(49) vs MAMP(51) - Why is aesf here...MAMP is good enough to hold him down here is what I feel.
SS Camomons: Jrdn (60) vs MetaRiolu7(40) - Jrdn is way too good to not predict in favour of.
SS Mix and Mega: Highlord (40)vs Andyboy(60) -Andy lost last match which was a shocker to me but I still believe he is one of the top mnm players.
SS NFE: frisoeva(51) vs Thimo(49) - Omg one undefeated has to fall here. The match I am excited to see the most. Bolding friso cause more wins and all from nfe.
SS STABmons: Alternatif (45) vs Terracotta(55) -Terra is more solid as a player.

And as always a proud big bolded LET'S GO SPINDAS!!!!!
 
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OMPL VIII Playoff Conditions

After week 6, here are the current playoff scenarios for each team:
9 points | +10 differential
The Honchkrows have been at the top since the start of this OMPL, and have clinched playoffs.
9 points | +6 differential
The Spindas have rocketed to the top in the last few weeks, and have clinched playoffs as a result.
8 points | +4 differential
The Corviknights have remained undefeated, which has helped them secure their place in the playoffs.
7 points | +2 differential
Despite their dominating start, the Tyrantrums still need one final push to make the playoffs. If the Tyrantrums win or tie vs the Misdreavuses, they will clinch playoffs. Otherwise, this gets more interesting.
5 points | -2 differential
Despite a rough start and only picking up their first win last week, the Misdreavuses need the fewest things to go their way to steal the 4th spot. The Misdreavuses need a win against the Tyrantrums. Since they trail only by 4 points in differential, they will catch up to the Tyrantrums even with a 4-2 win and advance based on head to head. To add on to that, the Misdreavuses also can’t have the Parasects or Magearnas win by more and take their spot.
5 points | -2 differential
By getting a point against the Honchkrows last week, the Parasects are still in contention for a playoff spot. The Parasects need to beat the Klinks and have the Misdreavuses beat the Tyrantrums. From there, they need to win by a higher margin than the Misdreavuses, since the two teams are tied in differential currently. If the Parasects and Misdreavuses win by an equal amount, since the teams tied in the regular season, they will head to a tiebreaker. It’s also interesting to note that (assuming this method is how the tiebreak actually works, plz correct me if it's not) if the Misdreavuses, Parasects, and Magearnas end up in a three-way tie, the Parasects will advance, since they earned 3 points against the Misdreavuses and Magearnas.
5 points | -4 differential
Despite a solid start to the season, the Magearnas frankly need a miracle to sneak into playoffs. They need to win against the Spindas and have the Tyrantrums lose. However, they are two points back in differential compared to the Parasects and Misdreavuses. Therefore, they need to have a greater margin of victory than both the Parasects and Misdreavuses.
0 points | -14 differential
Unfortunately, this season has been a total disaster for the Klink Shamers. They were already eliminated from playoff contention last week.


Playoff Probabilities
To find the probability of the remaining teams reaching the playoffs, I ran on the admittedly flawed assumption that every game is equivalent to a coin flip.

After a lot of number crunching…
RankTeamRecord (W-L-T)Chance of Reaching Playoffs
1:Honchkrow: Head Honchkrows3-0-3 (9) | 10100%
2:spinda: Spinda Wheels4-1-1 (9) | 6100%
3:Corviknight: Crown Jewel Corviknights2-0-4 (8) | 4100%
4:Tyrantrum: Temper Tyrantrums2-1-3 (7) | 265.625%
t-5:misdreavus: Malevolent Misdreavuses1-2-3 (5) | -227.871%
t-5:parasect: Pandemic Parasects1-2-3 (5) | -26.130%
7:magearna: Money Magearnas1-2-3 (5) | -40.374%
8:klink: Klink Shamers0-6-0 (0) | -140%
 

Euphonos

Press E♯ to pay respects.
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
Never knew you guys really anticipated a weather Camomons forecast from me every week; with that, I'm going to do it this time!


[PARA] Sylveon. (55 - 45) DugZa [KLNK]
The Pandemic Parasects' Camomons slot hangs in the balance as breaking news reveals that Sylveon. has an extenuating real life circumstance that he may not be able to continue playing in the remainder of OMPL. Will DugZa, fresh off the bench from last week, be able to take advantage of the Parasects' situation? How will Catalystic and the Parasects respond to the situation? Will a miracle arise that Sylveon. show up at the most unexpected of times?

Comment: While I do predict Sylveon. to win the match against DugZa, his extenuating real life circumstance prevented him to continue playing, so I have no idea how Catalystic will respond to the situation -- whether to hope for a miracle or to take action. DugZa might as well take advantage of this situation against someone who can fill in Sylveon.'s shoes, unless a miracle happens.


[MGRN] Matiss98 (50 - 50) Havens [SPIN]
This highlight match of the week features one of the household names in Camomons history who has received a string of losses over the past few weeks, and an unassuming Camomons player who has been catching fire for the past three weeks. Will Matiss98 redeem himself after a string of losses and stop Havens's streak from building up, or will Havens overcome one more test in the preliminary round before reaching playoffs?

Comment: Finally, Havens getting the starting role in Camomons since Week 4. Of course, Havens can't officially tell he's win-free unless he overcomes one of the household names in Camomons in Siamato. To be frank, I believed more in Havens getting the starting role than ham^5 because he really has more experience; how I wish xavgb realized his potential from the very beginning. On the other hand, the ring rust probably got the best of Siamato given his string of losses from the past weeks; although I'm not losing trust in this French guy one bit, his experience would give Havens one last test before reaching to playoffs. This will be a fun match to witness!


[HONC] Jrdn (70 - 30) MetaRiolu7 [CORV]
MetaRiolu7, despite sitting comfortably as his team qualified for the playoffs regardless of outcome, has yet to establish the groove in the realm of Camomons by facing the ultimate test for the qualifying round: one of the appointed Iron Chefs who has been catching fire all throughout the entire tournament. Will MetaRiolu7 score the upset and hand over Jrdn the first loss in the entire tournament, or will the Iron Chef secure the most undefeated streak in the entire qualifying round?

Comment: Jrdn is on fire, and no doubt he will secure an undefeated streak in the qualifying round. However, MetaRiolu7 comes fresh off the bench and marveled at Thimo's win against Siamato in the past week; maybe it could serve a wake-up call to step up to the plate and score an upset to one of the top Camomons players in history.


[TYRN] Akashi vs. Euphonos [MISD]
Akashi, the eventual dedicated Temper Tyrantrums representative to play Camomons, has a rather unappealing record in OMPL, and he will be facing one of the most hardworking players who has been recently appointed as part of the Camomons Council. On the other hand, Euphonos, the self-proclaimed Camomons meteorologist, has a rough journey in the tournament but is still staying on course after recovering himself through his victory with Quantum Tesseract last week. Will the Camomons Meteorologist and Iron Chef Chairman himself contribute to the latent surge the Malevolent Misdreavuses brought from last week, or will Akashi score an upset against the recent appointee to the Camomons Council to crush the opposing team's hopes of getting in playoffs?

Stay tuned.
 
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ok so since the LAZY BUMS In The Hills and Funbot28 have been slacking in having some STABmons game commentary I guess I will stop being hopeful and start doing some commentary more then halfway thru this hax-ridden tournament. Smh

Skysolo vs vivalospride
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8stabmons-1119028566

Kinda sad still that my boy pussied out of the goons...
Screenshot 2020-05-23 at 3.36.53 PM.png

But my boy skysolo went CRAZY OML WHAT A KING. THATS MY GUY WOWOWOWOW GOAT. Teambuilding wise we didn't really have a gameplan. Guys just dropped rains in chat cuz viv isn't the kind to stall and we were tryna use dracozolts and shit and i got them off that train and told em like look zeraora is really good use him. Uh anyway, rain vs webs, super shit for viv from preview especially since he has one water resist and we're shuriken specs keld AND scarf vish which in rain super annihilates him too. Viv is gonna have to win w/ priority moves and zera abusing webs, or gyara dding w/ perfect rain turns kinda deal or it looks real real rough.

Viv leads zera to catch pelipper as solo leads keld to catch centiskorch lead cause if viv gets greedy specs water spout just picks one off rip which puts solo in a MASSIVE advantage immediately. Then we see some doubling around and midground switches which are kinda important for sure cuz solo getting the peli double on the gyara/ferro situation means viv has to fodder centi to get webs or retreat. this matchup blows especially because webs are essentially his only out but pelipper can defog on 2 of his 6, 3 if rocks dont get up, so its hard as shit to suicide web here especially since sacks vs rain can be hella important. anyway doubles and midys happen and we get keld vs gyara and they trade. This is huge for solo because uh no water resist and a scarf vish w/ rain now is very ungood for viv. if he cant get webs up this game is just over on spot bar like triple prio killing vish but he has to lose 2 mons and then ludi wins bar misses. tldr he has outs but they're absurdly slim and hard to pull off. Viv goes zera which was the correct play because its the only mon that doesnt die to vish left but solo has a chople ferro which makes it not matter at all so he just ups. body press crit on terrak was pretty annoying for viv as he coulda hard centied and webbed as well as keeping terrak which 100% had a priority move which would have helped the endgame vs ludi/vish. Viv realizes i cant beat vish if webs arent up and since he crit this ferro is at full so moongeist beam aegi cant kill. so he webs but solo makes the right play in hard vishing and picking his kill here which viv makes the correct sack in centi. Now this game is surpisingly not over, zera can super win this still w/ webs up, goon guts sucker should come in clutch in this endgame and aegi moongeist beam also kills the phys def peli after rocks so he's not out of this yet. viv play roughs, bitch lives which is fucking absurd, attack drops into vishes fishous. this gives viv a chance again as no attack drop died to next life orb hit. this zera can still get another hit or 2 off as it does. kills vish, and they both trade zeras. ferro on goon, body press is dumby free. viv wins some 50/50s on aegi on press and sub on sap but solo knocks and wins it on sacking peli so no sub so solo wins bar bs. he does get bsed but strength saps on goon sucker and wins. there weren't many misplays in this game and despite matchup not being fantastic for viv still a cool game. I'm on record in our teamchat saying i absolutely love viv's team. fav webs ive seen including the like 10 different variants ive built. things like the terrak crit and losing the endgame 50/50s were the game deciders.

Terracotta vs Funbot
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8stabmons-1119322906

Both of them have very standard looking balances. Terra's incineroar should go crazy in this game knocking everything but funbot's pex is alarmingly annoying to break. Terra leads vish on funbots mandi which here we go fishious haha clicks it like 6 times pex no get crit, eventually terra gets his zera in on a recover. and it bulks up on a rotom-ferro obv, but then it subsss on a rotom tox which i get the set. elec fighting coverage is amazing already so u can bulk it up a bit invest in hp and shit, abuse strength sappers and tox/wisp shit primarily. its nb. and its fantastic here as it stops funbots sap ferro and threatens subs on pex. it being drain punch means no damage is being done to this heattom or roost kyurem though which is annoying and a downside to the set. Anyway bcuz a +1 drain did 1/3rd to the heattom (jeez thats bad) he goes cat. she goes mandi. trade knocks, vish comes back in clicks fish move. Turn 14 is where it got interesting ish. Zera bolt strikes on pex scald that does 20. I'm not sure why terra didn't sub if it only took 20, the health wasnt important and if funbot burned this game became much harder for you but this should be roost clanging scales kyurem from funbot which just beats this zera 1 on 1 so idk why she hasn't gone into that sooner but fair enough it worked out and pex this low is SUPER bad for funbot cuz sylv and incin go crazy now. he calls her zera out and drains. they trade zeras basically. and terra gets his sylv in on mandi w/ incin u-turn. he then boombursts as normal. reveals offensive but not specs so lefties/metronome/pixie plate shit comes to mind. but then terra subs. and then mystical fire doesn't break the sub. and at this point the game is 100% over. I liked the look of funbots team more but sylv is broken sometimes and I loved what terra did w/ the sub spam+bulky pivots. simple but good. was not as cool a game as the 1st but shows where the meta is at for sure.

Lasen vs LaBalladeDesCieux
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8stabmons-1119963506-7gxot36junnifxwqyki0lhwyp2lr90dpw

It's raining it's pouring. Rain again, but w/ some lovely cool lasen twists. mandi is cool for a pivot mon that can knock and get presumably one of band/specs keld in and just click buttons. also has a sylveon to also click buttons! help wear down ferro, spin for the boys, whole 9. LBDC (? I'm calling him this sorry if you don't like it. I like your pfp! D:) has some unique ass balance w/ a rhydon and a very OU core in mandi/ferro/clef. game starts normal and even until lasen gets in his specs pelipper which 2hkoes ferro easily, then LBDC goes clef and that is also 2hkoed! I think rhydon was 1000% the play here but he didn't calc i guess or his spread was weird? But he clefs it gets 2hkoed but he's wish tect so he tects but lasen somehow calls out the protect (also covered rhydon double) and went hard vish and claimed his kill cause 1 water resist vs rain again, not a fun time. and LBDC doesn't have nearly as much to threaten as viv did so this makes it even harder. The vish then subs on the ferros sap who comes in and he dds behind the sub but then ferro breaks, lives +1 rend and saps. idk if lasen got the low roll or didnt calc but fishiousing twice seemed perfectly fine cause like worst case u trade w/ his one water resist when u still have specs pelipper and presumably scarf water spout keld. idk. Anyway ferro gets some spikes and specs peli gets to pick again cause gosh is that mon very cool and good and underrated (even outside of full rain teams :O) [haha the :o face w/ the ) looks like a funny face]. Big Rhydon comes in and you can see LBDC's gameplan is hazard stacking and winning w/ aegi/ferro/mandi from the looks of it but lasen's ferro has t-wave and clicks it on LBDC's mandi to knock or parting shot out. LBDC I assume tries to parting shot but gets paraed on lasen's hard sylv. and at this point the game looks over but LBDC gets his rocks back up AND catches keld w/ a hefty EQ so he can't freely spout everything to death and keld pump outside of rain does absolutely nothing to LBDC's mandi so he's still got hope though slim odds. Lasen gets his sylv in again on a knock and spins which means mandi gets a free turn to parting shot on aegi which gets the beast specs pelipper in again. Lasen keeps it conservative and u-turns not risking pump on ferro hurricane on rock move 50/50s which is smart, gets his keld in rain in on the rhydon rocks and at this point LBDC has to pick. he chooses rhydon to die which was the correct sack. Now he has to mandi and stall hydros out. He gets paraed but then he dodges and knocks??? I really don't understand this knock and not roosting. Lasen's 2 plays i think were sylv if he's not tryna miss and hydro again. and idt knock worked either way. roosting he could have pp stalled the water move and aegi could have walled later but because of this mandi dies and at this point game is over. Game showed some cool things off mainly specs pelipper and showing hey mandibuzz is pretty super very good as a pivot knock mon.

Zesty vs Cam
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8stabmons-1120533723

I was excited for this game cause cam's builds every week have had some interesting spice to them and zesty uses a lot of teams that I would use and we seem to have a similar mindset and idea of the pokemon that are "popping" and "lit" in the tier so far this PL. Zesty is using a much more out there offense imo w/ some cool ass shit in grimm and gyara mainly w/ the sand clanger core and the hatt to beat cheesy shit whereas cam has a very aesthetically pleasing balance w/ a great fwg core alongside a mon i think could be used more in rhyperior. Anyway Cam's ground resists are rough this game just being jelli and intimidate arcanine really so dril could be a nuisance w/ hazards and sand chip but mainly gyara at +1 looks horrendous to deal w/. Zesty has outs for everything but he has to be cautious of sylv obvy. it should be soundproof clanger but if that gets tri attacked or hes slow bulky tar he could be in some trouble vs specs/metronome sylv. celebi can also do a ton of things once grimmsnarl is dead and gyara is chipped a little bit.
Turns out I'm very wrong from the 1st few turns. Zesty scouts tri attack t1 which is smart and cam goes celebi which is a fantastic midground. covered every option. Grimm is revealed to be screens and celebi is trick nasty plot which is a genius set especially on a balance like this where the hp isn't super needed, he's got things that take hits much better, and if he's giga he can restore, etc. zesty p shots into his gyara and starts setting up. I really wasn't a fan of this. I think brave bird/sub on celebi is fine but after that you gotta get out cause jellis have to be spectral thief atm otherwise they lose to sub vish which is not good at all. Gyara is also to me the easiest thing to win w/ in this game so trading jelli for it just seemed rushed to me idk. granted he doesn't have much counterplay to jelli but he coulda tried and like tared on spectral thief then grimm to see if he doubles cause he's lefties/helmet or wisps cuz hes colbur, then u can screen up. But yea jelli and gyara trade which is AMAZING for cam. he's heavily favored rn. Zesty then reveals fucking fire tech after fire tech in life orb DD clanger. then he hard tars on a sylv spin and he's weakness policy on the lefties sylv so he threatens it out and dds into fcking power trip but rhyperior eats and kills it. absurd sequence super fun. Sequence also shows zesty is even more annoyed by jelli than even was presumed at preview cause the tar's dark move was power trip and its not tox clanger so the gyara sequence makes MUCH more sense now. dril is still threatening outside of sand especially bcuz cam revenges it w/ arcanine which means ada goon, not cc or scared of chople dril ig. anyway at this point its a buncha trades which favor cam still because he got gyara down earlier. then goon facade burned doesn't kill hat which leads zesty to win. im assuming his goon was ada based on how he played it and given zesty's team idt that hat would be super bulky which means that facade is super in cam's favor but this was a super fun game regardless. Both guys showed off super fun super cool techs in a offensive slugfest.

Idt I'm smart enough to do meta commentary but lot of weather stuff. Meta is much more offensive now. Vish is clearly very centralizing, which is why its gone now.

I think this post is long enough now. I might do this next week I might not who fucking knows but anyways go teams and dudes, you are all lovely especially Lasen
 
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drampa's grandpa

#BlackLivesMatter
is a Forum Moderatoris a Community Contributor
Moderator
Hi it's me again, back with more ELO based win chances. Here is the link to the sheet I'm using if you haven't seen it already, check out my previous posts if you want an explanation I'm too lazy to do it again.

This week I calculated the chances of wins, losses, and ties between teams as well. Middle number is tie chance, number closer to the teamis win chance for that team. If numbers don't add up to 100% it's because I rounded or because I messed up who knows. Shoutout DIS^^connect^^AR from the scholastic room for helping me with the math.

:tyrantrum:The Temper Tyrantrums (OM, drampa's grandpa) - [31.1%][34.3%][34.6%] - The Malevolent Misdreavuses (Chazm, Euphonos) :misdreavus:
SS Almost Any Ability: (28%) The Number Man - 996 vs rozes - 1162 (72%)
SS Balanced Hackmons: Gurpreet Patel (Sent you a Friend Request)* - 1189 (75%) vs SuperSkylake - 1000 (25%)
SS Camomons: Akashi - 942 (42%) vs Euphonos - 997 (58%)
SS Mix and Mega: Skysolo - 935 (26%) vs Chazm - 1113 (74%)
SS NFE: Ho3nConfirm3d - 918 (53%) vs Tack :] - 897 (47%)
SS STABmons: Plas -1205 (71%) vs Lasen - 1049 (29%)​

This looks super close, well within the margin of error. Any of these possibilities seems equally likely, which, coincidentally, is good news for the Tyrantrums, as they have a 65.4% chance of confirming playoffs with no outside input.
SL42 also wins in Scrabble :dab:

:parasect: The Pandemic Parasects (Catalystic, Sylveon.) - [45.3%][31.8%][22.9%] - The Klink Shamers (Chloe, Pigeons) :klink:
SS Almost Any Ability: Sabella - 1032 (58%) vs TonyFlygon - 974 (42%)
SS Balanced Hackmons: sugarhigh - 871 (32%) vs jasprose - 1000 (68%)
SS Camomons: Sylveon. -1063 (64%) vs a loser (sub 1) - 963 (36%)
SS Mix and Mega: MultiAmmiratore - 1033 (49%) vs Pigeons - 1042 (51%)
SS NFE: TJ - 1026 (49%) vs anime sans 1032 (51%)
SS STABmons: Zesty43 - 1111 (83%) vs Betathunder - 839 (17%)
This is going to be weird because the Klinks clearly aren't trying to win (see: Tony in AAA, a tier he doesn't to my knowledge play). There are some matches that are theoretically very close. However I expect the Klinks to underperform what I've set for them here, as they have nothing to shoot. I'm rooting for them though, I'd like to see them at least not lose a week and have a player go positive (Pigeons I'm looking at you).

:magearna: The Money Magearnas (Funbot28, GL Volkner) - [19.2%][28.5%][52.3%] - The Spinda Wheels (xavgb, Jordy) :spinda:
SS Almost Any Ability: Dragonillis - 825 (34%) vs vivalospride - 940 (66%)
SS Balanced Hackmons: GL Volkner - 1024 (44%) vs PinkDragonTamer - 1063 (56%)
SS Camomons: Matiss98 - 1029 (37%) vs Havens - 1119 (63%)
SS Mix and Mega: Gmansour20 - 978 (48%) vs Jordy - 995 (52%)
SS NFE: Crystalites - 1057 (36%) vs King Leo V - 1160 (64%)
SS STABmons: Funbot28 - 978 (47%) vs Alkione - 1000 (53%)
I just realized a player from the Magearna has had their name spelled wrong on my sheet this whole time and now I feel terrible. The Spindas seem pretty well positioned here, with the best odds for a win out of any team. Which they don't actually need at this point, but it sucks for the Magearna.

:honchkrow: The Head Honchkrows (Jrdn, aesf) - [45.3%][23.2%][31.5%] - The Crown Jewel Corviknights (SBPC, Andyboy) :corviknight:
SS Almost Any Ability: highlighter - 1062 (45%) vs Thinkerino - 1094 (55%)
SS Balanced Hackmons: aesf - 932 (56%) vs MAMP - 892 (44%)
SS Camomons: Jrdn -1238 (85%) vs MetaRiolu7 - 939 (15%)
SS Mix and Mega: Highlord - 1000 (45%) vs Andyboy - 1033 (55%)
SS NFE: frisoeva - 1222 (59%) vs Thimo - 1157 (41%)
SS STABmons: Alternatif - 1036 (45%) vs Terracotta - 1068 (55%)

Don't miss frisoeva versus Thimo please. THAT is the weekly highlight match I M O.
Birb on birb fighting, who will win, the crow or the... wait are they both crows? Who allowed this. *Glare at Ransei*

Below in the hidetag are current ELOs sorted highest to lowest, with ranks. Enjoy.
RankNameWeek 6 ELO
1jrdn1238
2frisoeva1222
3xavgb1215
4Plas1205
5Gurpreet Patel (Sent You a Friend Request)1189
6rozes1162
7King Leo V1160
8Thimo1157
9Racool1151
10Havens1119
11chazm1113
12Zesty431111
13Thinkerino1094
14Terracotta1068
15Sylveon.1063
15PinkDragonTamer1063
17highlighter1062
18Crystalites1057
19abriel gabram1053
20dimrah1051
21Lasen1049
22Pigeons1042
23Marjane1038
24Alternatif1036
25Multiammiratore1033
25Andyb0y1033
27Sabella1032
27Anime Sans1032
29Matiss981029
30TJ1026
31GL Volkner1024
AVERAGE#REF!
32Highlord1000
32SuperSkyLake1000
32drampa's grandpa1000
32PurpleGatorade1000
32Chaitanya1000
32jasprose1000
32anaconja1000
32Alkione1000
32pileosand1000
32Dj Breloominati1000
42Euphonos997
43The Number Man996
44Jordy995
4585percent992
46Redflix988
47itsKimbo979
48funbot28978
48gmansour20978
50TonyFlygon974
51a loser963
52Monsareeasy960
53Chessking345952
54Lancer Fr950
55Akashi942
56LaBalladeDesCieux940
56vivalospride940
58MetaRiolu7939
59Skysolo935
60aesf932
61Fardin927
62Ho3nConfirm3d918
63Cam915
64blinkboy907
65Tack :]897
66MAMP892
67Mark K878
68Hamhamhamhamham876
69DugZa872
70sugarhigh871
71Quantum Tesseract870
72w0rd869
73DF-Shock867
73uhuhuhu7867
75Megazard858
76DurzaOffTopic844
77betathunder839
78Dragonillis825


EDIT: It has been pointed out to me that predicting aesf > mamp in BH is weird, among other things. My response is: stay in ur metas and I can do this more accurately >:(

EDIT 2: Updating win chances as actual results come in.
Last updated 5/30 2:35 GMT-4

The Pandemic Parasects (Catalystic, Sylveon.) - [0%][18.6%][81.4%] - The Klink Shamers (Chloe, Pigeons)

-Betathunder's win turned the odds in favor of the Klinks, due to Beta's low initial chance of winning. With a second win in BH the Klinks are looking favorable for their first win, and at least their first non-loss.
-The NFE match didn't change much about the odds of the week, as it was a pretty even match. The Klinks still have a better than even chance of winning and over 90% chance of not losing, while the Parasects have like half a percent more chance of winning.
-Congratulations Klinks! You tied it up, and have a very high likelihood of winning the week outright! Two matches to go as of typing this. This completely eliminates the Parasects from the competition as well.

The Money Magearnas (Funbot28, GL Volkner) - [65.7%][34.3%][0%] - The Spinda Wheels (xavgb, Jordy)

-Magearnas lost one of the matches that was theoretically most in their favor, making their odds of pulling off this week very slim. The Spindas currently have the best chance of winning the week of any team in the tour.
-Following Funbot's win the odds of a Magearna win got significantly better, but they're still low. And note that (as per abriel gabram's super cool post) the Magearna's need not only a win (not a tie) but to move up by at least two win differential on the Parasects and the Misdreavuses. Misdreavi? Idk. This means they either need those teams to tie or lose. I'll calculate the odds of that later, don't have the time for that right now. The Spindas don't really care about this week other than who they'll face for semi-finals.
-Today has been really, really good for the Magearnas, but the odds of them winning are still super slim. They need the Tyrantrums to lose (~5.2% chance), so they can go 5-1 and tie the Misdreavuses. This has a .8% chance of happening at this point (note the decimal, this is less than one). From there it goes to a tiebreaker, the odds of which I can't calculate because I don't have lineups for them. Everything has to go right for the Mage's, and any relevant battle could be the end of their hopes.

The Temper Tyrantrums (OM, drampa's grandpa) - [64.3%][30.5%][5.2%] - The Malevolent Misdreavuses (Chazm, Euphonos)

-Another team with exactly 30% chance to tie? Odd. Not anymore though.
-Anyway, Tyrantrums now have a much better chance of winning following Skysolo's impressive (he used a fking Haunter what a goat :3) win in Mix and Mega. This gives them an 87.6% chance of guaranteeing playoffs.
-Following Euphonos' win in Camomons the odds changed a little, but not a huge amount. The Tyrantrums now have an 80.4% chance of clinching playoffs, with about the same chances of winning and tying... theoretically; we all know Trums manage to tie every week.
-Following ho3n's win (why did I do this while a game I knew was happening was going on? IDK.) The Tyrantrums have a 94.8% chance of confirming playoffs, whether through a tie or through a win, although a win is much more likely. Missy's would have to have a flawless remainder of the week to remain at all relevant, and they are facing off against two undefeated players (and The Number GOAT who hasn't played as much so his ranking isn't as reliable).

Note that while my description here is pretty obviously biased for some strange reason, these numbers are all objective as opposed to subjective. Go Tyrantrums rawr.

The Head Honchkrows (Jrdn, aesf) - [49.5%][38.1%][12.4%] - The Crown Jewel Corviknights (SBPC, Andyboy)

-The chances of a tie have increased here. Not a ton more to say.
-Jrdn's win changed very little, as he was pretty heavily favored. The Krows now have about am 87.6% chance of winning the week, and... they care very little. Corviknights seem unlikely to be able to come back this week, which could put them in the position of playing the Krows AGAIN next week for Semis if the Tyrantrums win and pass them.
 
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LBDC's THINKERINO'S GEERAT'S AESF'S RACOOL'S ROZES' TOTALLY ON TIME MAMP'S OMPL BH Review AAA Edition: Week 5 6

:sm/mew:

aesf vs Sabella:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8almostanyability-1119672623
(Honchkrows vs Parasects)

I think the MU was looking slightly better for aesf; Sabella have bring a kind of BO apparently based on Dracozolt trapping Steel-types for Celebi, assuming respectively MagPull and Triage, but aesf's Hippodown + Goodra kinda ruin this. Prim and Weavile look neutralized by aesf's Toxapex ethier. Let's start in this!

The match started with Goodra and Celebi leading; the Celebi had immediately reveal that it was actually Drizzle. Perhaps a tech for use U-turn against Corvi and then wallbreak with Swift Swim Dracozolt ? Idk, but the aesf will switch to its Magic Bounce Toxapex to prevent Celebi to set Stealth Rock anyway. Then, some turn when Sabella try to play around the Toxapex with a limited success; at least Toxapex switch out turn 7, provably to keep Toxapex healthy vs Prim. Goodra switch in but can't really do something to the Corviknight which mean that Sabella will gain some important momentum to bring the Primarina, and omg Specs Prim is definitely a beast lol. Tinted do 82% to a (accoring to the calculator) non-defensive Jirachi. Speaking of that, the Jirachi will reveal Meteor Mash (oml). Good read from aesf with the double to Toxapex, since Corvi play was kinda forced. It won't be enough though, with Teleport Mew bringing Dracozolt. Going Hippo was the safe play and Sabella had perfectly take advantage of that with a double to the wallbreaker Prim. Pick one. aesf choosen to sack Goodra in order to revenge kill with the Terrakion but instead of just using Stone edge, he will use Swords Dance to try to KO the Mew with +2 Megahorn... which miss. It kinda suck because even if the Terrak live Psychic and will KO with the second Megahorn (and revealing that it was actually Beast Boost LOL), it's now in Weavile's Ice Shard range. In the rest of this battle, aesf simply lack of good Pokémon to sac as well revenge killer to Prima. Jirachi isn't simply engouth to reverse sweep, even if I must say that it the set look damn cool.

MZ vs The Number Man:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8almostanyability-1120611126
(Spinda vs Tyrantrums)

Giving this MU to TMN due to the core Chandelure + Weavile as well Hippodown+Corviknight that deal with Noivern and Golisopod but uh, it's tough.

MZ lead Inci, while TNM lead Weavile; MZ will chose to Knock Off the Hippodown. Then TNM reveal that the Hippo has provably some invest on speed, because it'll outspeed the Inci. After that, the Inci is seriously weaknd meaning that it'll struggle to come on Weavile or Chandelure even if it's Regenerator. A very interesting play is made just after with Noivern; MZ will click Switcheroo, provably in prediction of the Corviknight, but TNM had switch-in on Snorlax instead of Corviknight. It mean that: 1) Snorlax is cripple with a useless item for the rest of this game 2) Noivern will slowly dying due to rocks + Poison damage. I think it's a bit better for MZ since Snorlax was legit a theart to its team ngl but well. In an attempt to heal its Inci, MZ will soon double switch and its work. After a passive sequence with Toxapex Magic Bounce just annyoing MZ's team, as well some switch, the Weavile finally come in this place. MZ reveal the Yache Berry of the Hippo on the CB Adapta Knock Off but after that the Weavile is so much a theart. Some turns after, Golisopod will also reveal that it was SD and finally force TMN to sack somthing (Snoralx); however Golisopod get severly weaken in this process due to poison damage. This, with rocks begin up shorty after, kinda mean that it pretty much useless if its even comeback. At this point, the only "real" wincon of MZ is Curse Hippodown but TNM's Hippodown can phaze away it anyway. In the other hand, TNM's Weavile is still dangerous, esecially after that MZ "sacked" its Inci vs Hippo t48. Utimatly, with Silvally being KOed by Hippo, it's just TNM's Chandelue who cleaned in the late-game.

Dragonillis vs Thinkerino:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8almostanyability-1120598689
(Corviknights vs Magearnas)

Both have bring somewhat a unconventionnal Pokémon, respectively Dracozolt and Cloyster. Both teams also rely on Mew+Corviknight+Hippodown for their defensive core. Primarina look super dangerous if it's Specs. But in the other hand, Hydreigon seem also dangerous, soo I'd say that MU is looking kinda even.

Primarina, despite its damn nick say, reveal that it's a PH set and the Cloyster will ALSO be PH. Tbh, I think that it's a meh set but well. Dragonillis made a good read with his switch to Dracozolt, in predecting the Corviknight. Dragonillis will double switch again, this time to Mew, maybe to scout a possible VA Corvi ? Anyway his momentum is kinda runied with Think revealing his Magic Bouce Mew, which wall Dragonillis's Mew. Prim switch-in on the Mew but Dragonillis will play aggressively and double switch again to Dracozolt. I definitively think that it was the good gameplan from Dragonillis
with its team begin inable to really defensive core outside of the Dracozolt. Speaking of what, Dracozolt (which provably isn't MagPull since Corvi could switch-out) reveal its Fire Blast and the Hippodown that it's FF. Some turns after, Cloyster gonna setup its Toxic Spikes; Dragonillis play well his MBounce Mew unfortunately for Think, trading Cloyster for 1 range of Tspikes on each side, and Tspikes were Defogger away by the Corviknight anyway. Dragonillis will finally reveal the mixed Dracozolt, that get rid of the Hippo. Its will need to use Outrage to kill Hippo tho, so the Corviknight is just free to U-turn and do some chip damage. Think will go on the Hydreigon to revenge kill the Dracozolt and Dragonillis will stay; I think that it was a mistake from Dragonillis to let his Dracozolt die, since it really could do something to Think's defensive core with just Bolt Beak. Unfortunately, without Dracozolt, Dragonillis can't really bypass Think's defensive core in the rest of the game; in the other hand Hydreigon will break tough CorviPrimMew with Galvanize Hyper Voice and some well timed flinch on Corviknight. I think it is the kind of game where we'd like to see what would have happened if something didn't happen (like Dracozolt's sac)

EDIT: Gmansour20 have pointed out that Dracozolt was locked due to Outrage, so isn't a missplay from Drago ^^

rozes vs itsKimbo:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8almostanyability-1120594699
(Misdreavuses vs Klink)

Another Dracozolt, uh! rozes had bring a kinda fat balance, while Kimbo a much more offensive BO with Dracozolt + Celebi, possibly MagPull + Triage. Kimbo Weavile look also really good vs rozes balanced with the good predictions. Give the Mu to Kimbo!

and it's another game where Celebi reveal T1 that its Drizzle loool rip me :/ Corrosion Jirachi is able to pull off though, by poison Kimbo's Corviknight; it reveal soon that its POWER UP PUNCH wow. Dracozolt will force the Jirachi to switch out tho and it's Seism PH that switch-in on Dracozolt, so rozes can safely active its Toxic Orb, as well set rock. However, it's to the cost to let Kimbo Celebi taking the momentum, meaning that Primarina will come intro the place. And again, wow it's a beast with Specs, even if without the crit I think that Seismi could *maybe* tank two Moonblast factoring in PH recovery. Jirachi come in, so Dracozolt switch in; Kimbo will do a good read with using Earthquake in predict of Seismi. Some turns after that, the Rotom-H reveal that it's Desolate Land, so it's nullify Celebi Drizzle. It look pretty dangerous too, with NP+Overheat destroying everything, but somehow rozes will fear Kimbo's Mew, that will use Teleport to get Primarina again. rozes sac Jirachi and come back with Rotom-H; its will get the para on the Mew with Discharge. The para especially bother since the Mew will get paraed just after that. Dracozolt come on and do ridiculous damage to the Goodra lool. Though, Dracozolt poison + sr damage mean that its quickly weaken; its will die to the (faster) Rotom-H. After that, the Rotom-H should pretty much win but kimbo play well enougth with its Corviknight to put Rotom-H in the range of CB Adapta Weavile so when the latter switch-in after Corvi U-turn, rozes will switch to Mandi. However, kimbo reveal that it was actually SD Weavile while the Mandi use U-turn. At this point, rozes seem on a bad position, being forced to sac at least Goodra and hope that Shadow Sneak kill after LO recoil, but Goodra is Choice Scarf so Weavile will just dying. [IIRC, Weavile didn't have Ice Shard so kimbo just couldn't use that.] After that, the Rotom-H will just clean.

Metagame observation:

This week, we have see many defensive core based on Corviknight + Mew with some variation including Toxapex or Hippodown. I believe it is due to the solid defensive backbone that it provide, checking many metagame theart like Terrakion, Noivern, and Weavile, but also due to fact that it compress utility need, like Defog with Corviknight as well slow pivot support with Teleport Mew or U-turn Corviknight. Dragapult ban is also a major event for the core; balanced teams isn't forced anymore to run a awkward "defensive" check to it and can fully use this aforementioned core.

Obviously, builder have already taking that while building teams. Offensive Electric-types seem be valuable asset now, taking advantage of the lack of natural Electric resists in the CorviMewToxa core; I can notably think to Dracozolt, which has be seen in 3 of our 4 games (!) Choice Specs Primarina with Tinted Lend is another potent wallbreaker right now that perform well against the core — or just in general — and I'm hyped how builder will deal with this.

Magic Bounce have seen its usage climb a lot, begin use notably on Mew and Toxapex. I'm not completely sure on what this is due. Maybe builder have just realised how good a Bouncer could be, especially on a metagame where Stealth Rock setters are pretty passive, like Mew.

Last thing that I want point out is the relative disappearance of Gengar and Noivern; both have respectively (if I read correclty) 0 and 1 of usage this week. I'm honestly kinda surprised. For them, offensively, the only thing that have changed is the rise of Weavile; defensively these are still dangerous to deal it if you don't have a dedicated counter. Maybe that we will see these more this week ? And, on this, bye and stay safe everyone...



(Already my 500th post :o )
 
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Sextuple michelin star chef is back yet again! This week's special: Prawns from the former dutch water called Zuiderzee. They have been preserved at a very low temperature since 1928 and are a near extinct delicacy. It is seasoned with some salt that was extracted from foot sweat. Served on a very hot plate, which I actually preheated myself! It would be a shame if waiter GL Volkner dropped the pla-
1590692197540.png
 
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